Am I going to fold like a pussy or call like a noob?

[SmackinYaUp]

This guy seems pretty decent. I don't have much of a read on him because I am 4 tabling but he bluffs once in a while, shows some good hands once in a while and usually has some sort of a decent stack when I see him. My image is pretty aggressive at this table - not ultra aggressive but he might remember me from earlier today when I was crazy. I haven't see anybody bet at me like this all day? Is it an overbet wtih the nuts or a missed draw or what? If it wasn't for that turn minraise this hand would have been easier for me...

Texas Hold'em $1-$1 NL (real money), #1,228,729,777
Table Lublin, 2 Sep 2005 4:52 PM ET
Seat 2: SlappinYaUp ($109.50 in chips)
Seat 3: peeintheriva ($89 in chips)
Seat 6: nymphogent ($239.10 in chips)
Seat 8: Anonymous28 ($229.60 in chips)
Seat 10: alnino2005 ($33.60 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
alnino2005 posts blind ($0.50), SlappinYaUp posts blind ($1).

PRE-FLOP
peeintheriva folds, nymphogent folds, Anonymous28 calls $1, alnino2005 calls $0.50, SlappinYaUp bets $4, Anonymous28 calls $4, alnino2005 folds.

SlappinYaUp gets [ KD,AC ]

FLOP [board cards AS,8C,KS ]
SlappinYaUp bets $7, Anonymous28 calls $7.

TURN [board cards AS,8C,KS,10C ]
SlappinYaUp bets $12, Anonymous28 bets $24, SlappinYaUp calls $12.

RIVER [board cards AS,8C,KS,10C,3D ]
SlappinYaUp checks, Anonymous28 bets $193.60 and is all-in, SlappinYaUp says, "shit!" and ponders a call...

[dalecooper]

I don't particularly understand why you didn't re-raise on the turn.

Let's analyze a few hands he might have...

1) Any two spades. Might fit the limp in/call a raise profile. Something like Js Ts, perhaps. If this is the case he has a busted draw on the river and that explains his colossal overbet - it's a naked bluff.

2) Pocket 8s. He flopped a set, slowplayed it on the flop, pumped it up a bit for value on the turn, and then tried to make it look like a bluff on the river.

3) QJ. If he has QJ he's not a great player, chasing a gutshot draw on the flop for a bet of almost the pot. It's possible he does have QJ if he's a bad player though. His subsequent betting pretty much makes sense, although the river bet only makes sense if he thinks you're likely to read it as a bluff and call. Qs Js would actually make a WHOLE lot of sense, but that's a very specific hand, isn't it..?

4) AT. A lot of players would limp and then call a raise with this hand in 6max, and the rest of the betting is pretty straight-forward... except his river bet. Not a lot of players are going to get that bold with AT on the end. A value bet of $20 or so would make a lot more sense.

5) Pocket tens, although if he has this he's an idiot for calling your flop bet.

Now if I read this right, you're already in for $33, leaving $76 in your stack. You have to put in $76 to call, and the pot you stand to win is $142. Tough one. It's basically 2:1... do you think there's a 33% chance it's a bluff with a busted draw?

I would have liked to have seen you re-raise the turn by another $12. There's no way the 3 helped him, so another raise on the turn might give you more information, depending if he raised again or folded right there. It's possible he was working up to the big bluff with the spade draw.

[SmackinYaUp]

I think you're right about this one. He seems like a good player so I doubt its pocket tens. However, that ten is still ugly to me because it pushes my 2 pair that much farther away from the nuts. I've learned to really stop and look at those turn minraises.

I didn't 3-bet it because I just don't like 3betting with 2 pair or less...heres my reasoning: I've bet, he's raised, and now its up to me. Either he has a better hand or is bluffing/has a weaker 2pair. 3-betting it makes the pot too big for my liking and he's going to have to have a lot more of a hand here to call this. If I just call it gives him more of a chance to bluff or overplay a weaker hand. Unfortunately, the whole point of this was to keep the pot size under control and it didn't work...

Does my reasoning for not raising the turn make sense? I am very open to changing this play if its not going to be profitable in the long run...

The river is still eating at me though.

[alias2211]

I would have liked to have seen you re-raise the turn by another $12. There's no way the 3 helped him, so another raise on the turn might give you more information, depending if he raised again or folded right there. It's possible he was working up to the big bluff with the spade draw.

Nice post, Dale. I think Smackin could have avoided the question in the subject line of this post altogether by following your suggestion. This is a good example of where a reraise can be very effective.

[Miffed22001]

Got to say i agree with the reraise on the turn.

Only two hands i really think he might have. The set or two pair one of which you beat. The mini raise wouldnt bother me for two reasons. I have two pair so if he has a set i'll pay him with my top two pair on the river when he pushes (this is simply how i play) Secondly if he has QJ and a straight then i'll pay that and make sure i play against him all the time if he chases this shitty gutshot. Its a bad play by him and i will pay off bad plays every so often for the amount of times he chases this crap. I suppose if he had QJs and has both the gutshot and flush draw then maybe that isnt so bad a play post flop (but imo its still a bad call preflop so again id pay here despite him flopping 13or something outs)
Beyond that im calling and thinking im pretty much infront or else im 'happy' to pay off a better hand (set) or imo a bad preflop call.
If he makes poor calls preflop then i want to play poker with him.

[K2 the ArmA]

he has A10

[dalecooper]

What happened on this one anyway, Smackin? Did you call? I think I probably would have. If he has me beat he either slowplayed something good and i have to pay him, or he's a real fish and I want to find out.

[SmackinYaUp]

Oh he had a Jx of clubs and tried to bluff the flush draw he picked up on the turn. i dunno what was going through his head, and i still dunno if it was a smart call but yea i called it and damn glad i didnt get shown that bluff after folding

[IowaSkinsFan]

Sometimes when someone bets all the way then check the river i'd do the same move with any two cards.

[SmackinYaUp]

Sometimes when someone bets all the way then check the river i'd do the same move with any two cards.

Yea but on this board? This was not the best place to try this. But yea I know what you're saying thats why i've increased my check/calling on the river a lot - its helped.

[PokerPatNEU]

Does a pair of tens really call 7$ on the flop with two broad way cards after a pre flop raise? Of course TT is behind any pre flop raising hand when the flop comes AKx....Is he really paying to see the turn for implied odds on his set if he hits his two outer?

The only set i'm worried about is a slowplayed 88 on the flop. Other possibilities are AT, JQ of spades, (maybe J9 of spades? Does he like to play suited gappers?)

I might re-min raise the turn. If you get called you can push the river. If you get re-raised you can think about it. If i decide to just call the turn min raise, i'm leading out 30$ on the river.

Fold like a pussy or call like a noob? I like raising like a pro. (in this case it would have to be on the turn)

[dalecooper]

Wow, Jx of clubs? Obviously not JQ because he didn't hit his straight. So he called you pre-flop with Jx suited and then called a flop bet of most of the pot with nothing but backdoor draws? I hope you made a note that he was fishy. Either that, or he's kind of a maniac who relies HEAVILY on his ability to bluff people out of pots. If he had J9 of clubs, I can kind of understand the turn, because he did pick up a powerful draw - but usually I would prefer to make that move with two cards to come, because of the equity edge. In this hand, even if he assumes all his outs are live, he's still behind. I guess he just sensed you were weak by not re-raising him and decided to go ballistic on the river if he missed, which worked out excellently for you, as it happens. Good call.

[SmackinYaUp]

Guys, can you help me with something? I'm still not seeing what reraising the turn is accomplishing. Ignoring the results, what are you putting him on, why is he raising me, and why is reraising the best play here?

[dalecooper]

OK. You have top two pair. You have an opponent who may easily have you beat with a set or a straight, or may have what he thinks is a good draw - there are TWO possible flush draws out (clubs and spades) and three broadway cards, meaning any hand with a queen or jack in it has an inside straight draw as well. Would this guy possibly call a flop bet and then raise the turn with something like Kc Qc, Kc Jc, Jc 9c (close to his actual holdings)?

Lots of players will min-raise a good draw, but few of those same players will raise again if you three bet with a strong hand. They'll generally just call and hope to hit. That's a piece of information. The same guy with a set or made straight though is going to keep raising you. He's already shown strength with the first raise; he's not backing down with you firing at him.

So if you raise the turn and he raises you back, you may call (if it's a cheap raise) or push (if you think he's bluffing, or overvaluing AT) or even fold. Hard laydown, but possible. But if you raise the turn and he just calls, you can peg him for a draw. Then what are you looking out for on the river? Spades maybe, but really you're looking at clubs, queens, and jacks. If none of these cards hits and he pushes, it's an easy call because you have him on a draw and it wasn't satisfied. Also, there's a significant chance the river will go down differently, in any case. If a blank comes on the river after he just called your three-bet on the turn, and you bet again on the river, he's probably folding, not bluffing. Or better yet if you make him for the draw you can then check to him, he probably will bluff as he did here, and you can call with confidence.

What's bothersome about this hand, and I'm assuming is the reason you posted it, is that it's hard to read him for anything specific. There's a wide range of hands he could have. To me, another raise on the turn (and his reaction to it) will narrow his possible holdings significantly. Then you can be a lot more confident in your river action. It might well end the exact same way, but you won't be as bothered calling. And if a club, queen, or jack comes down and he makes a big bet (which probably would NOT be a push), you can read it for a value bet and not pay him off.

There's one more reason to raise the turn, which is that you're probably ahead of him and you have an equity edge, whether he's drawing or just has a second best hand. It's never a bad thing to get more money in the pot when you're ahead, especially on a draw-heavy board. Ignore the fact that on this hand, this particular guy ended up pushing on the river. A lot of players will play a hand this way with similar cards (hitting a club draw and a straight draw on the turn) but then check behind on the river, or fold if you bet. In other words if they miss, they're not going to give you any more money. So why not get more of their money in the pot when he's still drawing? It so happens that this gentleman gave you all his chips, which was kind of him, but a generic online opponent - especially one you don't have a read on as being very aggro - may not be so accomodating. I almost never slowplay a hand like this unless I have a very compelling reason to do so (i.e. a read that says 1. my opponent is way behind, and 2. has a decent chance of pulling a huge bluff on the river if he misses his draw).

[alias2211]

Guys, can you help me with something? I'm still not seeing what reraising the turn is accomplishing. Ignoring the results, what are you putting him on, why is he raising me, and why is reraising the best play here?

Reraising the turn allows you to avoid the scenario altogether (either pussing out or dumb calling). The reraise really just puts the screws to the opponent, forcing them to make the best decision. Reraising lets you either win the pot right there, get cold called which should raise some flags, or get over-the-topped. Those options make for a much easier decision. Let the other guy make a bad play instead.

[SmackinYaUp]

Ok, first of all you guys are all making great sense and I am pretty much converted to your point of view, but theres just one last thing I want to discuss - we'll just pretend I'm playing devil's advocate here.

I bet $4 preflop, 7$ on the flop, $12 on the turn = my stack is now $86.

Calling the raise puts me at $74. Minreraising would put me at a $62 stack with about a $94 pot if I am correct. Thats just min re-raising which seems kinda weak. Should I instead push here? If he reraises me after all that I guess I could escape but it sure seems like the odds of that call vs that pot size are getting delicious... On the other hand I can just call the reraise and call a decent sized river bet at the cost of giving a cheaper card but at least keeping the pot under control. This didn't work at all so I am not saying it was the correct move. But, if you think about it, the guy was playing pretty solid so would I have netted as much by having him call an all in on a flush draw? He might have folded. I gave him the chance to bluff his hand or over play it because I didnt want to push into a hand that would either fold if behind and call if ahead. The whole problem with this is, like you guys said, giving a free card and not knowing where I am.

[dalecooper]

The min-reraise does seem weak, but it does accomplish the goal of gathering more information. I mean, you're not hammering on him, but you're sending a clear message: my hand is strong, stop raising me unless you have a monster. And usually that will be his reaction, if he's drawing; he'll stop raising you. In addition to getting some information for you, it is the smallest raise you can make, which is important for the very reason you bring up. If you commit much more of your stack, there's no turning back. The pot odds become too inviting. You'd like to still be able to get away from this thing if necessary. If you re-raise here and he pushes, I believe this is foldable... you can put him on QJ (even though his flop call was fishy, unless it's Qs Js) or a slowplayed set. The important thing to remember, even though a push from him on the turn after your re-raise would give you really good pot odds to call... it's a POWERFUL move. If you three-bet and he responds by going all in, you have to consider the possibility that maybe it's NOT 30% likely you're winning this hand. At that point it would all come down to reads and guesswork. But if you three-bet by raising, say, $24 - now the pot is enormous, your stack is smaller, and you basically have to call his push for the pot odds.

You'd like to give yourself wiggle room, is my point... even though your hand is very strong, there are several that are ahead of you, and he could plausibly have one of them.

(Of course, to speak honestly, I'm probably not folding to any raise he makes in this hand. Your hand is too good and you still have a few outs as insurance if you're wrong. Unless I had a solid read that told me he was a very tight player who would only raise there with a real hand, I'm seeing this one through. This is more a matter of how to play the situation in general. Even with aces and kings, there's a 10% chance I'd fold to a show of great strength from the right player.)

[SmackinYaUp]

What a great, insightful post dale. This is some great discussion. I am now content! Thanks dale, you are a great post-writer. And thanks everyone else too - good points.