A hand, fold equity and some implied odds

[Iwind]

PokerStars Game #2618733224: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2005/09/20 - 05:27:29 (ET)
Table 'Menippe' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Longfellow34 ($27.85 in chips)
Seat 2: scoobmp ($12.75 in chips)
Seat 3: justinka ($24.65 in chips)
Seat 4: chas2148 ($17.70 in chips)
Seat 5: billylepok ($24.75 in chips)
Seat 6: Iwind ($21.40 in chips)
Seat 7: txhold1 ($6.80 in chips)
Seat 8: L Locket ($10 in chips)
Seat 9: suzieq100 ($29.65 in chips)
billylepok: posts small blind $0.10
Iwind: posts big blind $0.25
L Locket: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Iwind [2c Ah]
txhold1: folds
L Locket: checks
suzieq100: calls $0.25
Longfellow34: folds
scoobmp: folds
justinka: calls $0.25
chas2148: folds
billylepok: calls $0.15
Iwind: checks
*** FLOP *** [Th Qh 2h]
billylepok: bets $1
Iwind: raises $2 to $3
L Locket: folds
suzieq100: folds
justinka: folds
billylepok: calls $2
*** TURN *** [Th Qh 2h] [8h]
billylepok: checks
Iwind: bets $6
billylepok: folds
Iwind collected $6.90 from pot

Well, when playing this I was pretty sure I was in the same situation as last time (the post yesturday), and that I did the right choice playing the way I did. However, after looking over it a few times it seems to me I played wrong.

- If he had set, it most likely had to be 2 as he did't raise pre-flop,
then he most likely would have put me on two pairs and probably go all in/re-raise after my raise. Bad for me, then I'd fold.
- If he had two pairs, JQ, he might have put me on set and folded, good for me, and he might have put me on two lower pairs and then called, this would give me great implied odds if I hit my flush, I was thinking, but implied odds would only increase if he hit another J or Q then, and then I would lose. And most likely he'd go all in/re-raise if he thought he had better two pairs.
- If he had the flush draw, maybe with king, he wouldn't have betted in the first place, so it's not that likely he had this.
- If he had flush already he should either re-raise my raise unless he thought I had the top flush, and then he'd fold.

So I don't think I increase implied odds after all with this move. The only thing I do is to create fold equity, but is adding that to my 35% chance of winning on turn/river enough to justify my re-raise? I don't think it is, but it is pretty close I'd say. And another question, him just calling my raise, that doesn't make sense at all, does it?

[Rondavu]

For the most part you're right. Your implied odds are not much of a factor on a suited board like this. Your odds are set by his holdings. The higher his heart, the better your implied odds. Ideally he would have the king of hearts in this situation. Imagine he did, and then imagine how your implied odds (opponent confidence) would be largely unaffected by any manipulation of betting pattern.

Your implied odds would however be increased if he had something like the J or 9 of hearts. Imagine you didn't raise the flop and he has the Qc 9h or Qc Jh. When the turn hits he'll bet out again and any show of strength by you will slam the action to a halt. On the contrary, if you raise the flop he puts more stock in the possibility that you may have a very strong hand that is NOT a flush. Not much more, but at least he's not isolating possibilities. He's calling down value bets, where he may fold if you wait to raise the turn.

The difference is so minute and varies from opponent to opponent. I wouldn't take implied odds into consideration on this type of board.