For You Math Nerds

[lolzzz_321]

I have QQ what are the odds they are holding AA or KK?

[Ivory]

0.9 % chance of being dealt AA OR KK
but im not a math nerd i got it from a book

odds of atleast one opponent to hold AA in case you were dealt KK

#opps P(%)
1) 0 .489
2) 0.979
3) 1.462
4) 1.946
5) 2.427
6) 2.906
7) 3.383
8) 3.912
9) 4.330

odds for one opponent to hold a higher pair

own pair P(%)
22) 5.877
33) 5.387
44) 4.897
55) 4.408
66) 3.918
77) 3.428
88) 2.938
99) 2.448
TT) 1.959
JJ) 1.469
QQ) 0.979
KK) 0.489

[jukejointroach]

and if this happens you have, what, a 7-8 percent chance of winning? is that right?

[Ivory]

to win you would have to hit trips, i think it's 11%

to win you would have to hit trips, i think it's 11%

20% chance by the river, but there's also 20% chance that the aces get there by the river so it's 16% to hit trips and have them hold up, and 2% to hit one card flushes/straights for a total of about 18%

[Ivory]

i think mine were the odds for flopping a set

[Eric]

I have QQ what are the odds they are holding AA or KK?

Funny you should mention this scenario. Tyson and I were playing at Stardust in Vegas this month and that is exactly what happened. I had QQ and he had AA.

Fortunately he didn't try to trick me out of all my chips. When he went all in after the flop I had to fold my best hand of the night.

[Ivory]

this seems relevant and something i've been pondering, you limp with a pocket pair <9's flop misses you completely, and someone bets 3xbb to apot sized bet...do you call this in the chance of hitting trips? because lately i've folded quite a few pockets pairs only to see my card come on the turn or river, so im just wondering do you call small bets 1-3 big blinds on the flop and say a half pot sized bet on the turn in the chance of hitting trips? or is it better to just fold on the flop to any aggression, presuming there are overcards on the flop? if not how much should you call looking to hit trips?

[synthesist]

Seeing the card that makes you PP into a set hit "frequently" on the turn or river is a statistical blip.

You are a 22:1 underdog twice to improve after the flop.

Fold them without a second's thought or remorse to any serious pressure unless there is a straight draw catalyzed by a raggy flop.

Pray for your opposition at ring tables to chase that card though.

Syn

[Ivory]

thats exactly what i've been doing, just wondered wether or not it was the right thing to do. thanks for the confirmation

edit: although, do you consider a 3xbb bet serious pressure? as i usually limp smalelr pocket pairs and the pot is small. so even a pot sized bet might only be 4x the big blind

also i only play 6 max

[Checkways]

thats exactly what i've been doing, just wondered wether or not it was the right thing to do. thanks for the confirmation

edit: although, do you consider a 3xbb bet serious pressure? as i usually limp smalelr pocket pairs and the pot is small. so even a pot sized bet might only be 4x the big blind

also i only play 6 max

The only reason to continue the hand is if you think your small pair is currently the best hand. If you're concerned about their small bet, then raise them and try to take it down there.