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 Originally Posted by ensign_lee
If he knew that P1 would be calling, wouldn't he have correct odds to go ahead and chase for a flush, assuming his pair of aces wasn't ahead?
Knowing the hands of both P1 and P2 the answer is no, since P1 has a draw to a full house.
Of the 43*42/2 = 903 pairs of cards to come on the turn and river 8*42 - 8*7/2 = 308 will give Hero the nut flush. But in 8*10 = 80 cases it's beaten by P1's boat (or quads), while in 1 case it's beaten by a straight flush.
In addition 1 + 2*7 = 15 pairs will give Hero the nut full house or quads, but in 2 cases it is beaten by quad queens.
So in total Hero will win in 240 cases, so has probaility 240/903 = 0,2658 of winning.
On the other hand Hero has to call 125, and if P1 calls then the final main pot is 461, giving pot odds of 125/461 = 0,271.
Hence it is a very marginal fold. Facing a flush and a set is pretty much the worst case scenarion though, so I'm guessing that Hero would have pot odds if P2 called with two pair or so (not very likely perhaps). But if we take into account that P2 might push and create a side pot the odds become much worse.
If P1 folds then with the extra dead money in the pot it is again a very marginal fold.
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