Never fold PPs preflop with a raise under 6-8BB

[r8ed]

***** Hand History for Game 2798895503 *****
$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, September 29, 23:58:13 EDT 2005
Table Table 37418 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: DEEZxxxNUTZ ( $37.71 )
Seat 5: janje ( $28.47 )
Seat 6: Mr_Halo ( $34.10 )
Seat 2: Phrynosoma ( $11.45 )
Seat 8: Perfct_Ten ( $42.70 )
Seat 4: GeorgCantor ( $30.65 )
Seat 9: maru929 ( $27.45 )
Seat 7: Eyeofthelion ( $24.50 )
Phrynosoma posts small blind [$0.10].
GeorgCantor posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to janje [ 3c 3d ]
janje calls [$0.25].
Mr_Halo folds.
Eyeofthelion folds.
Perfct_Ten folds.
maru929 calls [$0.25].
DEEZxxxNUTZ folds.
Phrynosoma calls [$0.15].
GeorgCantor raises [$0.75].
janje calls [$0.75].
maru929 calls [$0.75].
Phrynosoma folds.
>You have options at Table 37145 Table!.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3s, Ad, 9s ]
GeorgCantor bets [$2].
janje raises [$10].
maru929 folds.
CaptCrunch10 has joined the table.
GeorgCantor raises [$23].
janje is all-In.
GeorgCantor calls [$2.47].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6c ]
** Dealing River ** [ Ac ]
GeorgCantor shows [ As, Qc ] three of a kind, aces.
janje shows [ 3c, 3d ] a full house, Threes full of aces.
janje wins $55.29 from the main pot with a full house, Threes full of aces.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

6-8 BB is too much to be playing any PP.

[r8ed]

Hmm...that invalidates the title of my post. I disagree. Do I have math to back that up? No. Somebody here will. I base my statement on what Ilikeaces told me right after PP changed the blind structure. Ever since then, I have followed the title of this post. Seems to be working fine for me, especially when I double up against somebody with an Ace. That makes up for the times they don't hit.

[renegaderob1]

6-8 BB is too much to be playing any PP.

What about PP As? :P I used to agree until Demiparadigm explained implied odds of catching a set to me in this way:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=19872

I now use the 10x rule all the time

[DaNutsInYoEye]

If you're stacks are deep and your opponents are morons then go ahead and call 6-8BB with small PP. If not, you're throwing away money.

[edudlive]

if you're calling more than 4-5xBB raises with PP you're pissing money

[BIGandRICH]

totally stack size dependent.. if he cant pay you 8 times the preflop bet then its -EV.. also, is he always gonna pay you off anyway when you catch the set? you were lucky he caught his pair.. otherwise you wouldve got all of about shit all.

[renegaderob1]

I've been playing pocket pairs with raises a lot more since I learnt about the implied odds. Today I made $140 by destacking 3 different people. Granted, they were probably idiots, but I called their 7-10xBB bets holding pairs, hit the sets and watched as they pushed all in with kings or aces...definately +EV if you can take back 10x their initial raise, which really shouldn't be that tough at 25/50NL... Poker tracker says the only PP I'm in the red with is 2s, and even then I've only made a net loss of $6... (although, my sample size isn't that great; 11,000 hands),

[BIGandRICH]

+EV if you can take back 10x their initial raise

that being the key part

[renegaderob1]

+EV if you can take back 10x their initial raise

that being the key part

Yes, very true. In 25NL though, I'm usually calling raises anywhere between $1-$3. I rarely come across much bigger in terms of raises, and I won't call unless he has at least 10x his raise size. So lets say now that I have won $140 from hitting sets (today), that means I have to call $3 raises and fold them 46 times before I am now EV=0 ... I'm fairly confident in 25NL that I can destack someone at least more than once out of 46 goes.

Is that a fair way to look at it or have I now fallen into a trap where I think it's OK to call the raise if both myself and the opp have 10X the initial raise every time?

[r8ed]

I should add that both stacks should be large enough to make the implied odds worth it. If I'm hitting trips 1 out of 8 times and I'm calling a raise < $2 and both stacks are high enough, I'm making the call.

Other factors, like my table image and their table image should be taken into consideration of course. I'm pretty sure my table image was aggressive post flop. On this table (and most) I bet most pots checked to me. I got reraised and folded a couple times, so people may have caught on. This guy was semi-loose, but he was passive pre-flop, so I put him on Ax (x higher than 10 possibly suited) or high PP. The $1 tells me he most likely has AK, which few people fold at 25NL even if they miss the flop. Therefore, I'm confident I'll make over $8 here. Once the Ace hit, I knew I had a great chance to destack him. I actually gave him a way out by reraising too high, but he didn't take it. I think my past aggression was a factor.

Even without all those factors, I'm making this call on a regular basis. When I get a chance I'll have to go through poker tracker and get the true story.

[spino1i]

Generally calling anything over 4x is a bad idea, its just not that frequent you hit sets (1 in 8 chance to be exact). Your implied odds just arent good enough, and of course theres the whole chance you hit a set and they hit a higher set.

[edudlive]

The stack size reply was true, but I find that at 25NL, not enough people are sitting with deep enough stacks to call the larger raises and make it worth it when you hit

[Aces]

I also think 6-8x is too much. If you're not last to act you're also exposed to getting reraised and putting more in the pot. If opps are even semi-aware I just don't think it's worth it.

[r8ed]

So, what hands are you playing when there is a preflop raise of say 6BB? You fold every hand except AA/KK/QQ? Because other than those hands - all PP are created equal in my mind - if you miss your set then fold to aggression. And I'd take a PP over AK any day against a raise.

[Gareth]

I might be looking at this wrongly but in this case if you know (good chance - from past play) that the other limper and the SB are going to call and not raise then you are getting correct odds here to call for a set.

edit - wrong, thought there was more money in the pot

[PokerPatNEU]

7x or 8x BB is a lot to call with a small pair, even with deep deep stacks. 4x-6x are border line for me. You need to know that your opponent (usually going to be the raiser) is willing to pay off a set if he has an over pair or picks up TPTK. The only times you get paid off with a set is when your opponent has a hand to pay you off with. So even though you catch your set 1/8...your opponent might miss with his AK 2/3 of the time, and not pay you off if the flop comes all rags. If you can read your opp for an over pair given his table image/raise size, and you know he won't fold it when the flop comes all unders, its ok to call 6-8x BB i guess. But only with that read, you cant just say "My stack is 30, his his 40, i only have to call 3$....thats 1/10th of my stack, i make a set 1/8 times, i'm gonna get PAID." because it doesn't work like that.

[Aces]

So, what hands are you playing when there is a preflop raise of say 6BB? You fold every hand except AA/KK/QQ? Because other than those hands - all PP are created equal in my mind - if you miss your set then fold to aggression. And I'd take a PP over AK any day against a raise.

Depend on a lot of factors, but I might call down to TT/99 or AK(obviously usually rerasing w/ AA/KK), especially if I have position. I don't agree all PPs are equal. At least the mid/hi PPs can win some pots without help. If for some reason there are several callers and I'm last to act or don't think it will get reraised, I'd call with some lower PPs as well.

Edit: Now that I think about, I would almost never cold call 6x with anything other then AA/KK/QQ barring special situations or a strong read(in a ring game)

[r8ed]

What's the difference between 22 and 99? You are playing for a set regardless, so small PP shouldn't have any more weight than a mid PP except for the possibility of your hand getting conterfeited which is very small. The raiser has overcards to every PP in that range.

What do you do when you have a nice high PP or AK and somebody just called your $1-$2 preflop bet and the flop comes out rags? You play aggressively. If there is $5 in the pot and it's your turn to bet, how much do you throw out? Probably pot or higher since you missed improving and don't want them to improve or possibly draw cheap. Now you have around $7 in the pot of your own money. If the guy that just hit trips calls, then what are you doing on the turn? Backing off? No, you have to bet to find out if you are really behind. More money into the pot. Hey look what we have here, you just hit two pair on the river. By that point, the trips paid for themselves and then some.

It seems to happen that way often. If you hit trips, you should be able to extract enough money to make it worthwhile - especially if you have position. Plus, this is 25NL.

When I get home, I'm going through same hand histories where I call over 4BB with a PP lower than TT. Maybe I'm talking out my @ss. Wouldn't be the first time.

[Fnord]

What's the difference between 22 and 99?

Set over set
Stronger straight value
Better chance of winning unimproved

44 is a better hand than 33 which is a better hand than 22. Large hand databases have validated this...

The stack size reply was true, but I find that at 25NL, not enough people are sitting with deep enough stacks to call the larger raises and make it worth it when you hit

...and many of these same players won't go stupid broke with just a pair.

IMHO, calling raises with a PP to hit a set for more than 5% of the money isn't a no-brainer in the current online games. Particularly NL100 and up.

[Aces]

Some guys make a 6x raise or reraise w/AK(or AQ/AJ or crap for that matter), so the higher the PP the better. If you assume that 6x(or any random amount) is always AA/KK/QQ, then of course no, it doesn't matter. I think it's dangerous to assume that. I won't call 6x but maybe 3-4x on the button w/99 from LP raiser known to steal blinds. A lot really depends on reads, where the bet came from, my position in the hand, how many limpers/callers and if there's anyone left PF to act. In some cases the 99 could hold up depending on the flop. In general, if somebody bets at you PF and post flop, flop is 752 rainbow, are you more likely to stay in the hand and/or win with 99 or 33?

I'm not sure potting a rag flop and rag turn is always best for AK. I usually make my flop bets smaller then that whether the flop hit me or not HU. If not HU that's really pushing your luck. There are also a fair number of people who just will not bet or call an unfavorable flop and will only call(or reraise) with a probable better hand, which means you don't get paid.

Trips are great. I love trips. I love trip ducks. I just don't want to pay too much to see a flop, or limp EP on an aggro table and have to fold them, or finally hit paydirt only to see the opponent fold to my first bet after overpaying all the times they didn't hit.

There's a lot of different ways to play PPs. I generally lean more towards TAG(if I'm not being stupid) so my calling decisions are easier, and especially when multi-tabling. I think in my situation, it makes sense to generally fold small PPs to aggression more often then not.

[This all pertains to full-table ring, BTW]

11.8% to flop a set
But do you continue if the flop is 3 of one suit? Yes, but his AKs might have flopped the flush. Do you continue if you flop trip tens on a QJT board? Yes, but his AK just hit a straight.

The fact is that you don't always win with trips, especially set-over-set with very small pairs.

To call 8BB you want to take 80BB every time you hit a set. Can you do that when the guy's stack is 50BB? Eh, no.

[r8ed]

Set over set
Stronger straight value
Better chance of winning unimproved

44 is a better hand than 33 which is a better hand than 22. Large hand databases have validated this...

I figured somebody would bring these factors up. It's true in general, but specifically in this case, they carry less weight:
Set over set - it's very unlikely somebody is raising over 4BBwith less than TT preflop.
Straight - If you miss trips, you don't want to chase a straight anyway unless somehow they don't bet the flop.
Unimproved - Are you calling bets when you miss trips hoping the raiser has a lower pair?
44 better than 33, etc. - In general this is true and those DBs are detailing all hands played with those hands - but in this case it's trips or fold.

The crux of the discussion is, can you extract enough money when you hit to make up for the times you miss. I think it's very possible at 25NL.

Answer me this: What hands do you call/reraise in this situation besides QQ+?

[renegaderob1]

[This all pertains to full-table ring, BTW]

What about 6max where people are generally (but not always) loser in their starting hand raises? I usually muti-table 2 6max with 1 full ring (or 1 6max with 1 full ring) and probably get paid off more with PP in 6max.

Just thought I'd post up my Poker Tracker stats on these; in total, I've made a net of $442.79 from sets and $513.25 from boats (my starting and current BR are in my sig). Together they make up about 5% of all hands played and I have a 70% won at SD with sets and 87% won at SD with boats. Sample size is 11,000, which isn't great, so I wouldn't mind getting some other stats on this from anyone else.

22 and 55 are currently my only PPs that are in the red for gain (22 = -0.43 BB/hand, 55 = -0.22 BB/hand). As my PPs get higher, their net gain increases (that's fairly obvious though as their value would also increase). I've never raised with a PP under 88, so the majority of my PPs are either limped or cold called - it would be interesting to find out how many times I limped and how many times I called, but I can't seem to find this stat anywhere...

Having thought over this, I think this is how I would generally play PPs; On a tight table, limp from any position and only fold if the raise is too high (more than say 6BB) because I am out of position and playing in a hand where I am obviously beat unless I hit the set. If I am in position, cold call any raise and hope to hit. On a loose table, cold call any raise if both players have more than 10x initial raise and I am confident I can destack them. I may even raise these post-flop if I feel the flop missed my opps and I can out-muscle them; I am experimenting with my positional-agressive game where I may raise with any two cards in late position and show my junk if I take down an easy pot.

I still think that the majority of my PPs have been limps, and if I can take down a nice pot after limping surely this helps when I am calling raises with PP for set value?

I try to play on loose tables anyway where people arn't frightened off by AI calls and where I can get paid if I hit.

11.8% to flop a set
But do you continue if the flop is 3 of one suit? Yes, but his AKs might have flopped the flush. Do you continue if you flop trip tens on a QJT board? Yes, but his AK just hit a straight.

The fact is that you don't always win with trips, especially set-over-set with very small pairs.

Good point. But if I feel I am beat, I am more than happy to fold. I think the beauty of a small-mid PP is that they are much easier to let go of than say AKs or JJ. If i can get a free or really cheap card (if they slow play), then I may continue hoping the board pairs (I can't remeber what the odds of this are, but arn't they fairly reasonable?).

If I feel someone is drawing, I will push harder to give them worse odds.

Set-over-set I will generally pay off; the odds of two sets hitting are small enough I think to push here on a non-scary board.

Anyway, I am in no way an expert, these are just my thoughts. From some of the posts I have read some people only play AK,AQ,AJ, KQs, KJs and PPs, (i can't remeber who put that list up, but it is someone who's advise I respect) so more often than not I will try to play the PPs.

Is there anywhere we can get stats on the EV of cold calling a 6BB raise with PP assuming you can destack someone say 50% of the time?

[edudlive]

for the board pairing, assuming no one holds another pair (such as Jx or Qx) on that TJQ board against AK

on the flop you have 7 outs (or about 14%) (3 Qs, 3 Js, and 1 T), if the turn does not pair the board, then you now have 10 outs, or about 20% for the river to pair