TP + Nut draw 25+2 turbo

[TLR]

PokerStars Game #2694271204: Tournament #13201842, Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2005/09/30 - 09:52:56 (ET)
Table '13201842 1' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: megc (2800 in chips)
Seat 4: ronje (1730 in chips)
Seat 5: Hot Pies (920 in chips)
Seat 6: Forty2u (2050 in chips)
Seat 7: colpilot (1410 in chips)
Seat 8: fjakka (1345 in chips)
Seat 9: xSpookmanx (3245 in chips)
ronje: posts small blind 25
Hot Pies: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Forty2u [Th Ah]
Forty2u: calls 50
colpilot: folds
fjakka: calls 50
xSpookmanx: calls 50
megc: folds
ronje: calls 25
Hot Pies: checks
*** FLOP *** [7h 2h Ad]
ronje: checks
Hot Pies: checks
Forty2u: bets 150
fjakka: calls 150
xSpookmanx: folds
ronje: raises 1530 to 1680 and is all-in
Hot Pies: folds
Forty2u: ?

[rubixstreub]

12 outs if he didn't hit a set

9 if he did.

And that's only if you don't already have him outkicked or he's on a weaker draw.

I swear I've read on here somewhere that calling a push with TP and a nut draw is always correct...

[Staresy]

12 outs if he didn't hit a set

9 if he did.

And that's only if you don't already have him outkicked or he's on a weaker draw.

I swear I've read on here somewhere that calling a push with TP and a nut draw is always correct...

plus 3 tens as additional outs?! I call here.

[rubixstreub]

I was counting the other 3 tens in my 12 total... I'd be skeptical about the Aces being full outs, maybe just one.

[TLR]

I Thought about it for a while, the main question was whether or not he had a set, giving me 9 outs, with outs for him to fill up.
And there is also the player behind me that called my initial raise, I put him on draw.

I decided to fold, I had bad vibes about this hand.

The other player called, one of them had a set of 2's, the other a set of 7's.

[gabe]

no reason to gamble if you can outplay them later.

[WildBobAA]

Don't open limp.

[a500lbgorilla]

no reason to gamble if you can outplay them later.

I gamble becuase I'm playing several at once.

-'rilla

[drmcboy]

lately with low fold equity I've been taking free cards in this spot.

[a500lbgorilla]

lately with low fold equity I've been taking free cards in this spot.

You make a good pair and nut draw and want them to fold?

-'rilla

[Staple Gun]

12 outer = 49%. I would say there is also a good chance he has a KQh or KJh and is semi-bluffing, which if that is the case you have him crushed. I doubt he has a set, so its 49% + odds you have the better hand. Even if you think its only a 1 in 5 shot that ould put you at 59% to win the hand. I would take the risk, I think about 30%-40% you are ahead here.

[drmcboy]

how does taking a free card make them fold?