difficult river decision

[BIGandRICH]

POKERSTARS GAME #2723438842: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2005/10/04 - 03:09:26 (ET)
Table 'Urda IV' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Tallarico ($73.70 in chips)
Seat 2: shanklebush ($113.05 in chips)
Seat 3: jenkins006 ($16.90 in chips)
Seat 4: YOUGONNALOSE ($94.20 in chips)
Seat 5: geri21 ($39.75 in chips)
Seat 6: Scott Owen ($206.60 in chips)
shanklebush: posts small blind $0.50
jenkins006: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Scott Owen [:Qc: :Js:]
YOUGONNALOSE: calls $1
geri21: calls $1
Scott Owen: calls $1
Tallarico: calls $1
shanklebush: folds
jenkins006: checks
*** FLOP *** [:Ac: :Qh:]
jenkins006: checks
YOUGONNALOSE: checks
geri21: checks
Scott Owen: bets $5
Tallarico: folds
jenkins006: folds
YOUGONNALOSE: folds
geri21: calls $5
*** TURN *** [Ac 8d Qh] []
geri21: checks
Scott Owen: checks
*** RIVER *** [Ac 8d Qh 4h] [:Jh:]
geri21: bets $33.75 and is all-in
Scott Owen: ????????

My thoughts in white below
note: my thoughts were wrong as hell.
i limp QJ with decent position, in a multiway pot.
It checks to me on the flop, i bet to see where the queen stands
One caller.. i think he probably has Ax as the board isnt ripe with draws
I check behind on the turn as i figure he'll call me down with an ace
I hit 2 pair on river, and the board flushes, His push looks very much to me like an Ax trying to rep the flush.

[UG]

I'm folding this unless I've got a solid read on the guy that says he's full of shit. You only have six dollars invested in this pot, get out now and find a better spot. Dude probably just hit a straight on you, has AJ, or a runner-runner flush. I'm thinking KT, maybe even KhTh.

The overbet, to me, doesn't look like a "OMG I OVERBET HOPING TO TAKE DOWN THE POT." I think it looks more like, "Hey, I overbet hoping you'd think I was full of shit...but in reality I've got a little something-something for your candy ass. PAY ME."

[BIGandRICH]

ok thanks, your right he had K10, and i paid his ass off... all good learning..

[Zangief]

*** FLOP *** [:Ac: :Qh:]
geri21: checks
Scott Owen: bets $5
geri21: calls $5
*** TURN *** [Ac 8d Qh] []
geri21: checks

This is where reads become really important. You need to know what type of hands this player will play this passively. If he will play Ax this way, checking behind makes sense.

Without a "plays TP passively" read at NL$25, I fire the second barrel here. This will often shake off those sand fleas who are still drawing. Most players aren't bad enough to call 2 pot-sized bets with only a gutshot draw.

If he raises, it is a clear fold.

If he calls and pushes the river when a draw completes, it is a clear fold.

[Tommydx]

I would hate to be limping with that in the first place.

[drtofu66]

Whenever I toy with the idea of moving from ring limit to NL, it's hands like these that bring me to my senses. I'll just get torn apart.

What's the villain thinking for calling with 2:1 odds in that hand hoping to hit his 4 outer? Are the implied odds THAT good here? If I'm him, I'm putting the hero on an ace and in limit I'd fold KT on the flop if it's going to get heads up. Did he have KTs trying to backdoor his flush but ended up stumbling into his straight? This is Poker Stars, for Pete's sake-- not Pacific.

[BIGandRICH]

he was just chasing the gutshot.

and its hands like these that make the concept of playing limit seem awful to me... so much money to be made by these peoples ridiculous decisions.

I was limping it as more of a connector hand in a multiway pot, as its implieds are good for the straight because often someone will have a K or A and pay you off. Its not a hand i would normally limp, it was a specific situation that made it ok.

[Zangief]

If it seems like a fishy player and I put them on a draw, I often continue my betting drive through the river:

***** Hand History for Game 2831345470 *****
$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, October 05, 19:39:50 EDT 2005
Table Table 37152 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 3: cleve2005 ( $40.05 )
Seat 4: wagerchen ( $3.45 )
Seat 5: hobski ( $44.60 )
Seat 7: CAB52111 ( $145.88 )
Seat 8: Zangief00 ( $35.50 )
Seat 10: sharko34 ( $12.71 )
Seat 9: snoopy_ace ( $10.75 )
Seat 6: PSUalumnut ( $4.60 )
Seat 2: cliveelk ( $16.70 )
Seat 1: joelteb ( $23.25 )
sharko34 posts small blind [$0.10].
joelteb posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Zangief00 [ 9s Ks ]
cliveelk calls [$0.25].
wagerchen folds.
hobski folds.
PSUalumnut folds.
CAB52111 calls [$0.25].
Zangief00 calls [$0.25].
snoopy_ace folds.
sharko34 folds.
joelteb checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, Js, 6s ]
joelteb: nh
joelteb checks.
cliveelk checks.
CAB52111 checks.
Zangief00 bets [$1].
joelteb folds.
cliveelk calls [$1].
CAB52111 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jh ]
cliveelk checks.
Zangief00 bets [$3].
cliveelk calls [$3].
** Dealing River ** [ 2d ]
cliveelk checks.
Zangief00 bets [$5].
cliveelk folds.
Zangief00 does not show cards.

I think he calls me on the river here way less than 50% of the time, making it quite profitable.

[bencathers]

Betting the turn makes the decision much easier. Buddy list him. He's calling a pot sized bet looking for one specific card. Make it much more costly on the turn. HAMMER DOWN. You may even get A with a small kicker to fold.

[Zangief]

Betting the turn makes the decision much easier. Buddy list him. He's calling a pot sized bet looking for one specific card. Make it much more costly on the turn. HAMMER DOWN. You may even get A with a small kicker to fold.

I agree I could punch the turn if I had an overpair or a hand where I really don't want a call.

But here I am semi-bluffing. Unless he has Ax, I want him to call here all day. If the 3rd flush card doesn't fall, I take the pot on the river probably 75% of the time. If the 3rd flush card does fall, I take his stack 95% of the time. It's really an ideal situation.

This assumes he is drawing to the flush. If he is drawing to the straight, things aren't as good ... except that I own 2 of his outs.