15-out draw vs. overpair

[Lexicon Devil]

So the situation comes up often enough. You hit a 15-out draw on the flop and you put your opponent on an overpair. What's the best way to handle this?

You're a 52% favourite (54% if your opponent doesn't hold a card of the suit, 50% if he does).

The problem I have with pushing, however, is that I don't push my made hands (sets or 2pair), so doesn't a push completely give away the fact that i'm on a draw?

Anyways, as I said, i'm unsure of how to play these hands, so any suggestions are encouraged. Below is an example of how I recently played one:

----------------------------
Hero: [8d 9d], Small Blind
Villian: Mid Position
Other Guy: Late Position

PREFLOP
Villian raises 4x
Other Guy calls
Hero calls

FLOP [Jc Td 5d] - Pot $12
----------------------------
Hero bets $6
Villain raises to $15
Other guy folds
Hero raises to $45
Villian raises another $21 (all-in)
Hero calls
----------------------------




PS - yes, I realize that it's preferable to play such hands in position. Please spare me the standard (and annoying) "fold preflop" replies. Focus on the postflop action please.

[Iwind]

If you're certain you're more than 50% favourite if he calls your push, what would be good reason not to do it? Pushing might make him fold as well if he puts you on a set. I can't see any advantages with just calling.

[johnny_fish]

What about the possibility Villain has TT/JJ/AdKd/AdQd/AdJd?

[PokerPatNEU]

You can't really go wrong playing a 15 out draw on the flop unless you fold it. I like to over bet the pot by a little and push over if i'm raised. These hands are scary if you don't get all the money in on the flop, and the turn doesn't improve your hand so i prefer to just try and get as much in as i can on the flop and either take down a small pot there or go into the turn/river as a slight favorite.

[Lexicon Devil]

As I explained above, I don't play my sets this way, so shouldn't an observant opponent realize that I am on a strong draw, and therefore won't I lose all the folding equity I'm trying to gain by pushing?

[Fnord]

so shouldn't an observant opponent

Online game right?

Bahahahahaahahaha

[PokerPatNEU]

I always lead out with my sets as well unless I have aggressive pre flop raisers or bluffing maniacs to act behind me. I guess thats why putting out big bets with strong draws works for me.

How do you play your made hands on draw heavy boards? If you were going to give a free card to a JT5 flop with two diamonds, you should probably re-evaluate how you play your made hands in this situation and not how you play your strong draws. Both hands should play pretty much the same way. You are trying to rep a strong hand on a draw-heavy board, when really you have the draw and are hopefully up against a not-so-strong made hand.

[Lexicon Devil]

Fair enough, Fnord. But I do play at a smaller site, with alot of regulars, some of whom should recognize my play.


TURN - [7h]
RIVER - [7d]

Villain shows [Kd Kc]
Hero wins pots

Villain says "knew you had a draw."

[Lexicon Devil]

PokerPat,

If I had hit a set of 5's, my line would have been:

-Lead out probe bet (1/2 pot, same as above)
-Villian reraises potsize (same as above)

Then, my action depends on the Other Guy. If he calls, it indicates a draw, and the pot is already big enough for me to make a move. If he folds, I would simply flatcall and make my move against the overpair on the turn.

[PokerPatNEU]

What is different about villain's over pair that makes him more likely to call a big turn bet after you flat call his raise? In my experience, pushing over on the flop will get the call just as often - maybe even more so if the turn brings a scare card that villain will fold his over pair against (another J, for example).

[Lexicon Devil]

What level do you play?

At $100 NL, people fold their overpairs to signs of strength. There's no way that a push is the best move with a set, especially in a deep-stack game.

In $25 NL, fine, push.

[Fnord]

Board: Jc Td 5d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.7980 % 49.80% 00.00% { 9d8d }
Hand 2: 50.2020 % 50.20% 00.00% { KcKd }

[Lexicon Devil]

Yep, I did that calculation Fnord.

I'm still the favourite against an overpair though, since there's only a 50% chance he's holding a diamond. If he's not my equity jumps to something like 54.5%.

[Lexicon Devil]

Also, that's the reason I mentioned the other guy.

Since it's so narrow a coin toss, the 12x BB already in the pot ensures that this is +EV for both of us.

[dsaxton]

If you don't like the volatility involved in getting all your money in the pot with a draw, then just chase for an appropriate price if your semi-bluff fails.

Also, if you think your opponents believe you only push with draws, start pushing with sets.

[Fnord]

The funny part about this situation is that you're usually a dog on the turn. So, if he thinks you're on a draw he really should turn screw you.

[Fnord]

Also, if you think your opponents believe you only push with draws, start pushing with sets.

...when there is a draw on the board. Consider that this is a VERY draw heavy board since it's both JTx and two tone.

[Lexicon Devil]

Does the best line change if you have position?

[Fnord]

Does the best line change if you have position?

Given the board and an opponent who'll push on a strong draw I would see a turn card here with KK, then look to get in all the money. Remember to type in something cute when he stalls a few seconds to do the math after you push over his turn bet....

[Lexicon Devil]

Edit: nevermind, misunderstood your post.

I actually meant if you had position with the 15-out draw, not the KK.