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fold an overpair to weak bet
this is a question a mate put to me a few days ago, it is a somewhat unusual situation.
table is full, for the sake of easy maths i will make it NL .50/$1
Seat 1
Seat 2 - (button)
Seat 3 - (sb)
Seat 4 - (bb)
Seat 5
Seat 6 - (hero)
Seat 7
Seat 8
Seat 9
Hole cards:
Seat 5 - calls $1
Seat 6 - (hero) - raises $4 to $5
Seat 7 - calls $5
Seat 8 - calls $5
Seat 9 - calls $5
Seat 1 - folds
Seat 2 - (button) calls $5
Seat 3 - (sb) folds
Seat 4 - (bb) calls $4
Seat 5 - calls $4
Pot size: $35
Flop: 
Seat 4 - checks
Seat 5 – bets $7
Seat 6 - (hero) ????
Seat 7
Seat 8
Seat 9
Seat 2 - (button)
When my friend asked me this I straight away said raise, to the pot. Because calling is improving odds for straight and flush draws and folding is, well, folding an over pair to a weak bet. Then he pointed out that there are 4 more players to act after me in a pot where people quite likely would be playing drawing hands, low pairs and suited connectors. Not that he truly believed that a fold was the right move, we were unable to decide on what is best.
A fold is a pretty tight passive move here… the fold option is based on “only invested $5, there will be a better place” looks like a good time for an AA to lose a big pot rather than win a small one. Raising up to the pot is very much for information here, and its a lot to invest for info. If you were reraised AI you would be calling ~$50 into a ~$150 pot.
So is it a question of whether you win the current $40 pot if everyone folds enough times to account for the time you lose your stack?
For anyone’s responses could you continue them to the turn/river as well, because if you raise and get called your have more hard decisions coming your way.
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