1st Post -> My Bad Luck or is it?

[FATSHARK]

Did I do the right thing? Or was my over agression my pitfall?



Hand History

Seat 1 - FATSHARK ($148.87 in chips)
Seat 3 - JOSHUAWELDER ($76.60 in chips)
Seat 4 - DMAD8724 ($20.10 in chips)
Seat 9 - ZBALL4321 ($30.75 in chips)
JOSHUAWELDER - Posts small blind $0.25
DMAD8724 - Posts big blind $0.50
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to FATSHARK [Ks Kd]
ZBALL4321 - Raises $1.50 to $1.50
FATSHARK - Raises $5 to $5
JOSHUAWELDER - Folds
DMAD8724 - Folds
ZBALL4321 - Calls $3.50
*** FLOP *** [10h 5d 9d]
ZBALL4321 - Checks
FATSHARK - Bets $30
ZBALL4321 - All-In $25.75
FATSHARK - returned ($4.25) : not called
*** TURN *** [10h 5d 9d] [Ah]
*** RIVER *** [10h 5d 9d Ah] [3h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FATSHARK - Shows [Ks Kd] (One pair, kings)
ZBALL4321 - Shows [10d As] (Two Pairs, aces and tens)
ZBALL4321 Collects $60.25 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($62.25) | Rake ($2)
Board [10h 5d 9d Ah 3h]

[mouteut]

This is a bad beat....you could not do anything about it.

I estimate he had around 20% to beat you and you had 80% to beat him. Thats what you want to happen(i don't have the calculator with me).

I would have played it the same.

You did very good raise pre flop and just dropped the hammer on a safe board and got outdrawn.

[Rondavu]

Do you often overbet with giant pairs on the flop like this? It could become dangerous at higher levels, because up there a call means you're beat. You won't get called by AT on a higher skill table. You'll get called by TT.

You need to learn not to put meaningless money in the middle. Overbetting is bad unless you have a super loose image, or you know your opponents to be super loose. Either way, someone has to call your overbet with a worse hand more often than they don't to make it correct.

What you're showing me is a pattern I see often called the overconfident high pocket. Getting married to high pockets can ruin the enourmous value they hold, and committing yourself without info can also do the same. Put it this way. Against a competent opponent, they're going to know what you have once you bet 10xBB preflop. They now have an advantage. Now they can base how much more money they put in the middle on the fact that they know you have a high pocket.

Did you see the guy at the WSOP that bet 20xBB preflop with AA? Blinds were 25/50, and he threw 1,000 in the middle. Sammy Farha was sitting with 20,000 chips in front of him holding 33. He just smiled and called. Of course when the flop came all rags with a 3. AA guy checked and Farha pushed all-in like he had TT or JJ. The guy called with AA all confident about it and lost his whole stack. He forgot about what his opponent thought he had.

Start thinking about what your opponents are putting you on. This overbet nonsense will become unprofitable past 25NL.

[Pelion]

2,762,693 games 3.024 secs 913,588 games/sec

Board: Th 5d 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
KdKs: 80.6545 % 80.65% 00.00% { KdKs }
AsTd: 19.3455 % 19.35% 00.00% { AsTd }

The only hands i can see beating you here (when you push all-in) are TT and maaaaaybe 99 (almost certainly not 99 because most people dont raise with it) so you are ahead here most of the time. On the other hand even a slightly competent player folds TPTK againt your all-in raise here so i think most of the time you are called you will be a long way behind.
I think you should have bet here but not more than $15.
If on the other hand he had been playing very loose and you thought he would call with his pair of 10s then you may have done the right thing in pushing. even here im not sure as the way he played it preflop doesnt look all that much like an A10 and again most people wouldnt call this with a Q10 even if they did with an A10.
Summary: I think you got lucky that he called and didnt have you beat... and then unlucky that he beat you in the end.

[mouteut]

I don't really agree with you guys, people at 50 NL will call with TPTK all day. This guy is not playing 400 NL.

I think he had to pay off sets anyway...In your example, stacks were deep so Farha's move was good. But in here i think TT would have sucked out on him (correct me if im wrong).

He put 15% of the guy's stack pre flop. So this means even if his pocket gets lucky and hit Set, it was almost a break even move(85% of the time he wins 5$ and 15% he loose 30$). However, since this is 50 Nl, we have to remember how some people will pay him off whitout the sets. QQ JJ A10, maybe even players with a "he's bluffing syndrom" will call him on totally random hands.

Keep in mind his opponement is a very short stack. If he was playing another player who had 150$ i would agree. But this is different.


Correct me if i am wrong, i'm still not that good at poker.

[mpc2323]

good play from both players.... he put u on AK he flopped top pair and he calls your bet!! you got outdrawn

[edudlive]

You're going to pay off a lot of sets with flop play like that. I would probably re-reraise preflop, probably all in at this level.

Badbeatz.

[mouteut]

I don't think going all in pre flop is a lot better.....They might call with TPTK but call with A10 i strongly doubt that.

Odds of them flopping a set is only ~16%, and the stacks are just perfect for it in this situation, since the guy only has 5x the pre flop raise left in his stack.

Of course if he did the same thing against
Seat 3 - JOSHUAWELDER ($76.60 in chips)
Now that would have been a bad play.

Correct me if i am wrong on this, i'm just using my own logic but i need a better argument than just "You're going to pay off a lot of sets with flop play like that."

[edudlive]

You bet $30 (to put him all in) into a pot of $10. The only hands (minus donkey here) that are going to call you in this spot are: TT,99, and 55. The first two hands are quite reasonable raises preflop 4 handed. Overbetting the pot, except in the cases of very small stacks, is only going to cost you money.

[mouteut]

He bets 25.75, the additionnal 4.25 don' count.

25$ into a pot of 10$ that you have 85% chances to have the best hand and around 20% to get called by a much weaker hand(don't minus donkeys, there are plenty at 50 NL).

Seems good to me

[edudlive]

The fault in that is, by your betting such a large amount, you're going to chase even some of the biggest donkeys out and thereby win the small pot with a big hand usually, however when you do get called...you can be 90% certain someone has the set.

[mouteut]

I can agree theres a better play but its not a bad play at all, he just did the safe way. He could have a done a few vaklue bets to pot commit him.

I personnally rather push Ax out than get a bad beat from it since im very tilt sensisive so i try to dodge bad beats the best i can.

[lowBoy]

I can agree theres a better play but its not a bad play at all, he just did the safe way.

It's not the safe way at all for reasons people have gone over already... you've GOT to be willing to put sensible amounts of money in when you're likely ahead and let people make bad calls when you give them crappy odds. You'll get sucked out, but those calls are what makes you money.

FATSHARK - Rondavu is right on the overconfident high pocket. You're most likely thinking that your kings are good on this all unders board, so might as well get all of your money in now so any time you're beaten it's a bad beat and you made the right play. Maybe you accept that you're beaten sometimes, but know that you can't let go KK when you've invested all that money in it so (somewhat correctly) you push AI when you're willing to call AI.

You've got to be willing to let the big pairs go against random players. If you have a read on the person as a donkey or a tool, then I like this play more. If you've noticed this person pulling this move a lot, or if he's shown a lot of aggression with middle pair, or if he's a maniac, then getting your stack in is alright. Against someone you have no reads on, I'd recommend a 3/4 pot bet and then see what your opponent does. If you have no read on him and you get a push, you have to find the mental strength to lay this one down... it happens.

I got married to QQ-AA when I first started playing poker. Now we just date.