Raise or fold here?

[Vrax]

Recent situation from sportingbet room.

$25 full table filled mostly with tight passive set-farmers, 2 loose passive fishes and few TAGs.


I get AA UTG. Standard raise 5x, 3 callers UTG+1, MP, CO. Callers are big stacks. Blinds fold.
Pot 21xBB. Flop is 892r. I fire 18xBB flop bet, MP minraises to 36BB. Folds to me. It's "just a minimum raise" but my flop bet was quite strong. What hands minraise the flop after such a aggression?
Bet the pot, when the pot is so big and multiway? Or am I risking by getting called by better hands?

Raise or fold? Push and bust him if he has lower overpair or go broke against a set?

[Irisheyes]

Recent situation from sportingbet room.

$25 full table filled mostly with tight passive set-farmers, 2 loose passive fishes and few TAGs.


I get AA UTG. Standard raise 5x, 3 callers UTG+1, MP, CO. Callers are big stacks. Blinds fold.

Pocket pairs, AK, ~AQ

Pot 21xBB. Flop is 892r. I fire 18xBB flop bet, MP minraises to 36BB. Folds to me. It's "just a minimum raise" but my flop bet was quite strong. What hands minraise the flop after such a aggression?

1) Overpair that puts you on an AK c-bet,
Most likely possibility. If you push/raise he folds.

2) possibe aggro. set,
Unlikely because its a pretty safe board for a set. He could take your stack over later streets by just calling. He risks you folding by raising and he's pushing out the people to act behind you.

3) JTs that wants a free river card
Not likely because of the size of your f lop bet.

Bet the pot, when the pot is so big and multiway? Or am I risking by getting called by better hands?

Good bet I think, this needs a big bet because its multiway.

Raise or fold? Push and bust him if he has lower overpair or go broke against a set?

Options:

1) Fold
Not good because you could have his overpair beaten at this point. Its more likely he has an overpair then a set.

2) Raise
If he has the set he'll push back and you can fold. If he has overpair he calls/folds. You dont get much more of his chips.

3) Call
This shows weakness, he deffinitly puts you on an AK if you do this. If you check-raise the turn you can probably get another good bet out of his overpair.

Conclusion:
The most likely hand he has is an overpair.
You are most likely ahead and he has little chance of catching up.
Based on this I think the call and check-raise the turn option is the best.

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[edudlive]

As a recent graduate of 25NL I have to say that without a read saying my opps are rocks, I'm getting them all in here. At this level they could easily have K9/A9 and/or an overpair. Make them pay.

[Vrax]

Well thet was also my impression on that table - tough to believe, but it seemed like rock quarry - 60% were tightass regulars. Still 4 callers on my raise, probably they were on high cards and missed or pocket pairs and hit or missed.

It seems to be weak, but I mucked it. Is is "solid poker" to overbet and commit the entire stack with just a 1 pair and risk getting called by better hands? My reasoning was "pot sized bet was pretty big, if someone raised it with 2 more people to act, he most likely was stronger than 1 pair and wanted to cut down potential draws on his left". Most showdowns stack vs stack were pushing set vs overpair, set vs pushing flushdraw, set vs this and set vs that. Damned sets all the time, I got setophobia or something.

On the SAME table, I mucked KK without A on board, against flopped 2 pair and twice against set. Semibluffs were 80% successful, cont. bets about the same.

The dynamics of table allowed me to raise with rags in position and steal lots of pots on flop with 74 type of cards, with the 2nd barrel from time to time.

[sejje]

I wouldn't muck that, I don't think a set raises.

If continuation bets were 80% sucessful AND I was getting four callers to a 5BB raise, I'm pretty sure I'd raise about 50% of hands. Maybe all of them, who knows.