Colts and Texans

[ensign_lee]

The line is Texans +20!!!

I'm finding it VERY hard NOT to bet on my beloved Texans here. I mean, the spread is 20 POINTS!!!.

The Colts should be emotionally drained after that MNF game, plus they have less time to prepare for the Texans.

Plus, the Texans have finally found a fire, and are playing with more of a passion.

Any advice? Should I take Texans +20? Plus, because it's at a new book, I'm going to be getting a deposit bonus. Should I take this???

I'm thinking 2 units. Doggz; please let me know what you think before this line moves.

[a500lbgorilla]

The line is Texans +20!!!

I'm finding it VERY hard NOT to bet on my beloved Texans here. I mean, the spread is 20 POINTS!!!.

The Colts should be emotionally drained after that MNF game, plus they have less time to prepare for the Texans.

Plus, the Texans have finally found a fire, and are playing with more of a passion.

Any advice? Should I take Texans +20? Plus, because it's at a new book, I'm going to be getting a deposit bonus. Should I take this???

I'm thinking 2 units. Doggz; please let me know what you think before this line moves.

Oh that's a good one.

-'rilla

[DoGGz]

I hate betting against the Colts here, but it's probably a smart move. I'm just going to pass on this play though because it's just way to hard to predict, and I'm less about 'the system' and more about predictability.

I'll tell you that the only people betting the Texans are professional gamblers, so take that as you will. The public loves the Colts.

edit: Also, Professional gambers are doing terrible this year and the public is on fire. Vegas has actually lost money over the past few weeks.

[ensign_lee]

I my Texans. Come on, boys...you can lose by less than 20, right?...right?!?!

One more thing to factor in is that Caper's tenure as Texans head coach is done. As such, and being a conservative coach, he is much more likely to "play to lose less" than to "play to win".

Case in point: 4th and 4 in the Colts vs. Pats game, Belichick chooses to GO FOR IT because he knows his defense can't contain Manning's offense and Manning will be right back there in like 3 plays.

What would Capers have done? He would have punted, opting to use that extra minute or two that the Colts would take getting back there as a victory, meaning he'd lose by less.

The gambles by the Patriots not paying off was part of the reason that they lost by such a large margin, but you know it was smart on their part to do it. Lose by a lot, lose by a little...it's all a loss in the end. I think the Pat's philosophy in that game was "go big or go home."

Still...I'm not so sure about this game.

I think I'll put one unit on it...maybe parlay it with the Washington pick.

Truth be told, I'd love for the line to go to 20.5 or even 21.5. That would make my day.

[ensign_lee]

But hey doggz: could you do me a favor and look into it a little for me?

I mean, I'd like to think that the Texans can lose by less than 20, but I'd like someone to
A) push me off the edge
B) pull me back from the edge.

I'm obviously not going to go huge on this game, but I'd like a second opinion. I've posted the reasons why I think the Texans will lose by less than 20, but I'm not sure that it's that solid.

I mean...3 touchdowns = 21 points. I'm kinda scared that we WOULD lose by at least that much.

[DoGGz]

I hate betting against the Colts here, but it's probably a smart move. I'm just going to pass on this play though because it's just way to hard to predict, and I'm less about 'the system' and more about predictability.

I'll tell you that the only people betting the Texans are professional gamblers, so take that as you will. The public loves the Colts.

edit: Also, Professional gambers are doing terrible this year and the public is on fire. Vegas has actually lost money over the past few weeks.

What else do you want me to tell you?

The Colts have a very good pass rush, The Texans a terrible Oline. The Colts offence is good. The Texans defence is bad. The Colts could come out flat in this worthless game, or they could simply destroy them.

[ensign_lee]

hahaha. Thanks, doggz. :P

[Grand_MasterB]

Yeah i dont see the appeal in this game at all... the colts just beat NE in NE by 19... why is 20 vs the worst team in the league so hard to believe?

[ensign_lee]

Because of the pending status of DD's injury, and Jerome Mathis still being out, I have taken myself off this pick for the single bet.

Vwager COlts -21.5 (+140)
cancelled by
Sportingbet Texas +21.5 (-140)

Bets cancel.

I'm sticking with my parlay. Plus, you can't really cancel out a parlay, you know? :P

Thanks for talking me off the ledge, guys. GO TEXANS.

[pipe64136]

So who collects it then?

[DoGGz]

So who collects it then?

hu?

[ensign_lee]

So who collects it then?

hu?

That's what I was thinking. Huh?

[DoGGz]

I think he's refering to how I mentioned that Vegas lost a few weeks ago, and that Professional Bettors were having a bad year. Who's taking the money? The Fish.

Is no suprise that fish gamblers win. It's just like poker, sure, they have times when they win alot, but they lose it all back and then some in the long run.

If you consistantly always bet with the public favorites, then you make it really hard on yourself to become profitable. The lines on a public favorite are farther against that team then they should be, meaning your getting less value.

What you need too look for is a Underrated team playing an Overrated team, in which the underrated team matched up well with the overrated team. There is a lot of value in the underrated team in this scenario.