A sick sick hand..

[Pingviini]

This hand has bothered me more than probably any hand in months
I am relatively new to the table.
I have about 440
EP about 240
Button has us both covered.
5 handed game 2/4NL

EP and button limp, I raise to 16 with AA and they both call

flop QQ5, I check, EP check button bets about 16 we both call (This is where the problems start, I decide to aim for a cheap showdown )
turn 2, I check, EP check button bets 'bout 24 we both call
River is Q (board QQ52Q) (My hand has to be good right?). I bet about 74 to ~170, EP thinks for like 5 secs and calls half his stack, Button thinks for about 2 seconds and goes AI putting me AI for my rest ~$240. My line?

[Fnord]

Why did you bet the river?

[Pingviini]

For value, I was pretty sure I had the best hand and I saw like middle PP's calling but not betting when checked to them. I didnt think anybody raising me except with...

[Fnord]

Did you want value or a cheap showdown? You never made up your mind.

[Pingviini]

The third Q reduced the possiblity of a Q in their hands. I wouldnt have bet with only QQ on board.

[Fnord]

The third Q reduced the possiblity of a Q in their hands.

I don't see how the Q on the river changed much.

[Pingviini]

The third Q reduced the possiblity of a Q in their hands.

I don't see how the Q on the river changed much.

Too bad, I'll let others elaborate.

[Fnord]

The third Q reduced the possiblity of a Q in their hands.

I don't see how the Q on the river changed much.

Too bad, I'll let others elaborate.

What bothers me about this hand:
o No reads given
o Are you comfortable with these stakes and stack sizes? I generally insta-call this, but NLHE is a complicated game.
o No attempts to define hands post-flop, then suddenly you force (difficult) big money decisions on the river.

[Pingviini]

The third Q reduced the possiblity of a Q in their hands.

I don't see how the Q on the river changed much.

Too bad, I'll let others elaborate.

What bothers me about this hand:
o No reads given
o Are you comfortable with these stakes and stack sizes? I generally insta-call this, but NLHE is a complicated game.
o No attempts to define hands post-flop, then suddenly you force (difficult) big money decisions on the river.

new to the table--> no reads
I am comfortable at the stakes and stacks, I always have at least 100BB stack.
I didnt want to force a thing but I guess that I decided to define the hand too late. What hands could he be pushing here with the shorty calling half his stack on my bet?

I know I most likely screwed this hand up by not betting on the flop. BUT had I bet the flop and he called, what was I to do on turn, and on river?

[arkana]

The third Q does reduce the possibility that one of your opponents has a Q, but it doesn't remove it.

I think you should have either lead the flop or gone for a check raise, calling down to the river is a bad plan except if you are up against a very aggressive player who will keep on betting until he faces resistance.

I think check calling the river is better, it really sucks to get raised there but now that its happened I think you have to call the river but it wont be a very optimistic call.

My guess would be button had 55 and EP had the fourth Q.

[Pingviini]

Pretty descent arkana but EP just called my raise, would a short stack be so sneaky that he would just call with a Q in order to lure the button in?? To be honest, that never even crossed my mind after he called..

[arkana]

Pretty descent arkana but EP just called my raise, would a short stack be so sneaky that he would just call with a Q in order to lure the button in?? To be honest, that never even crossed my mind after he called..

I have seen them do it, especially if the aggressor in the hand still has to act.

[arkana]

Results?

[Rondavu]

Instacall. Pay off quads with a VERY unlucky AA in this spot against 4 queens.

[Pingviini]

Shorty had KK, big bully some shit like 57. I almost cried myself into sleep that night :'(

I just didnt see any other hand besides QQQQ making that play because the shorty was going to call no matter what. Shit happens..

[siknd]

i believe the q to be there as well. but i dont fold after having put half my stack in the middle, three way to boot. you cant change your read on a guy halfway through the hand, i mean, you cant suddenly start fearing a flush because one might have backdoored when you had the guy on a set to begin with.

think about it another way. if they DONT have the Q, what can they call with. so it would have been a poor value bet, notwithstanding the results.

anyway. if youre that upset about it, maybe the stakes are too high.

[Pingviini]

i believe the q to be there as well. but i dont fold after having put half my stack in the middle, three way to boot. you cant change your read on a guy halfway through the hand, i mean, you cant suddenly start fearing a flush because one might have backdoored when you had the guy on a set to begin with.

think about it another way. if they DONT have the Q, what can they call with. so it would have been a poor value bet, notwithstanding the results.

anyway. if youre that upset about it, maybe the stakes are too high.

Umm, that third Q changed the odds of them having the Q. Also there are more hands that call my bet (other than Q) like middle PP's and even A high compared to hands which bet on river. And I did not see any other besides Q raising me after I bet. And I am bothered and upset because I played this hand poorly. I am not bothered that I just blew a whole buy-in on a stupid bluff or called my stack with top 2 against a straight or I called a buy-in with top 2 against a set. I am upset about the hand, not the money. (not that the money doesnt count but still..)

[Sed]

I think I like a check-raise on the flop to identify where I am... OOP vs. two opponents with that flop, you have to define your hand early. A strong ~2/3 pot-sized check-raise should get rid of anyone with a weaker hand and let you get away from it if there is any further aggression.

- sed

[aislephive]

Hmmm, after putting so many chips in the middle you have to call with what could easily be the best hand. If I had little invested in this pot I might muck it, they could very well have the queen.

[ArcticKnight]

The third Q reduced the possiblity of a Q in their hands. I wouldnt have bet with only QQ on board.

I don't really agree with this logic. If this was a drawing game(not holdem), with more cards to come, then the third Q would certainly reduce the chances of either or your opponents "drawing" another Q.

However, if one of your opponents already has a Q in their hand, then the appearance of another Q can't change that. It might give you some statistical comfort, but it can't change reality.

Either you put an opponent on a Q or I don't, and If I don't then the third one makes your hand the nuts. I'd be interested to hear from others, but I don't think the third Q makes it more or less likely that your opponent has a Q. Or perhaps more correctly, I don't think it impacts my read.

[Pingviini]

This concept isnt quite clear to many so here is some kind of a proof again : http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...685&highlight=

it is actually funny to see that Arkana was the one answering me back then. You are right about the fact that it didnt really change my read but I made a blocking bet thinking that he would only raise big with quads. Perhaps this thinking isnt good at these stakes..

[ArcticKnight]

[quote="Pingviini"]This concept isnt quite clear to many so here is some kind of a proof again : http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...685&highlight=

The probabilty concept is clear to me and others I presume.

Perhaps you are not getting the point, so I'll provide another way of looking at it.

Let's say I'm one of your opponents in that very hand and I have QJs. The fact that the very last Q hits on the river does not and cannot change the fact that I had a Q, and still have one. The probabability works in an "all things being equal and random scenerio". If someone is representing a Q (not to say that this was the case), but if it was, then all things are not equal. And, if I actaully do HAVE a Q, then probability that says its was unlikely that I had one, has no impact.

[Pingviini]

I know what I am saying but you do NOT know if he has one, hence the third Q helped me. I know I made a stupid play here, should've just check-called hoping that he wouldnt go AI