Set of Kings...But Poker Hates Me

[WildBobAA]

I have to call this don't I? Would someone really risk a flush getting checked down by check raising here? So confused.

PokerStars Game #3429222944: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2005/12/25 - 01:59:59 (ET)
Table 'Hapag' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Pryderi ($175.35 in chips)
Seat 2: KitWalker350 ($52.90 in chips)
Seat 3: Pedro_chips ($16.45 in chips)
Seat 4: bowlerboy300 ($162.65 in chips)
Seat 5: ndk1 ($35.10 in chips)
Seat 6: WildBob182 ($107.80 in chips)
Pedro_chips: posts small blind $0.50
bowlerboy300: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to WildBob182 [Kd Kc]
ndk1: folds
WildBob182: raises $2 to $3
Pryderi: folds
KitWalker350: folds
Pedro_chips: folds
bowlerboy300: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [6d Ks Tc]
bowlerboy300: checks
WildBob182: bets $3.50
bowlerboy300: calls $3.50
*** TURN *** [6d Ks Tc] [7d]
bowlerboy300: checks
WildBob182: bets $8
bowlerboy300: calls $8
*** RIVER *** [6d Ks Tc 7d] [Qd]
bowlerboy300: checks
WildBob182: bets $15
bowlerboy300: raises $50 to $65
WildBob182: ???

[dsaxton]

After you've shown this much strength, he can be confident you will bet the river if he checks.

[WildBobAA]

But do you think I should call this? He really overbet the pot here and when people do that at this level, they usually have the nuts.

[dsaxton]

Had you seen how this guy plays at all? It looks like he may've had A-J of diamonds. He calls the flop bet with an overcard and a gutshot, picks up a flush draw on the turn, ends up backing into the nuts, and then assumes that his completed draw is well-hidden enough to go for a check-raise on the river since you're likely to bet anyways.

It's probably close between calling an folding, although I'd lean towards folding since it's difficult to see a typical player making this play without a flush. If he had two pair or a lesser set, I'd expect him to make a raise which is more callable from a worse hand with a three-flush present on the board (it's also unlikely he'd check either of these hands all the way down to the river). It's also not likely he'd call $8 on the turn with just a gutshot, so I doubt he has the straight with an unsuited A-J or J-9.

If I called it would probably partially be just to see his hand and get a better understanding of how he thinks and plays.

Edit: Another reason I think he held A-J, is you'll notice that by the river, aces and jacks are both completely live in the deck. This makes it more likely that each of these cards are in his hand, particularly after he's called a raise preflop. His flop play is also perfectly consistent with this hand. However, I think he would generally need a flush draw as well to call the turn bet, and his river raise makes it even more likely he was suited in diamonds.

[Miffed22001]

I think i'd call here to make sure im beat. Dsaxton probably has it right, but i'd pay for the information. Playing hands like this agianst this guy again if he turns over a better hand in this situation means im pushig all turns if i detect him on a draw of any type. If he goes calling here i get the impression he may play for stacks on draws.

[SmackinYaUp]

A total bluff is quite possible here, but I'd go ahead and let it go without reads or history. I'm guessing he made a loose call on the flop, picked up a draw on the turn, and finally backed into a real hand on the river. My guesses in order of likeliness: Flush, A high straight, lower set, T high straight, 2 pair, bluff. What do you guys think?

[dalecooper]

Smackin - I totally agree with you; you summed up my thoughts completely. I would first suspect AJ or a lucky runner flush. Ad Jd, like saxton said, wouldn't surprise me a bit. 89 maybe, but I'd think he'd raise the turn if that was the case. His check-raise on the river may seem a little weird to you, WildBob, but a lot of players can't help but check when they finally make that draw. They just haven't learned how much money they lose playing it that way.

An outside possibility is a broken draw that he's getting cute with - QJ. He did hit a queen on the river and might for some reason think this is a good bluffing opportunity. But that's a slim chance. I'm more inclined to think he really has something, and without a specific read on him I make the crying-est fold I can find.