Bad bluff? What does villain have here?

[Cocco_Bill]

Villain is 19.9 Vp$IP and 5.8% PFR. Fairly solid multi tabling player. We are both in the blinds.

*** Export for: Cocco_Bill Game: Texas Holdem Game number: 633933391 ***
Date: 1/3/2006 2:21:06 PM
Game: 633933391: Table: TV Broadcast Table p
Normal Table No Limit 1.00/2.00
Rake: 3.00
Seat: 1 rdbulldozer
Seat: 2 PontLa-mera
Seat: 3 seeho
Seat: 4 bertnd (Dealer)
Seat: 5 PastieBap
Seat: 6 silverfox7
Seat: 7 Cocco_Bill :Kc:, :Qd:
Seat: 8 Kargon
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OpeningBetRound
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PastieBap : Posts small blind 0.50
Cocco_Bill : Posts big blind 1.00
Kargon : Folds
rdbulldozer : Folds
PontLa-mera : Folds
seeho : Folds
bertnd : Folds
PastieBap : Calls for 0.50
Cocco_Bill : Bets 3.00
PastieBap : Calls for 3.00
------------------
Flop :Jh:, , :Td:
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PastieBap : Checks
Cocco_Bill : Bets 5.00
PastieBap : Raises for 16.00
Cocco_Bill : Calls for 11.00
------------------
Turn
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PastieBap : Bets 15.00
Cocco_Bill : Calls for 15.00
------------------
River
------------------
PastieBap : Checks
Cocco_Bill : Went all-in 54.90
silverfox7
PastieBap : What does he have, can he call?
------------------

[nutsinho]

He either has nothing or sevens full. I'm gonna go with sevens full since you bothered to post this hand.

[p-i]

77, not much else makes sense to me (and 77 doesn't make that much sense either ), or would he call preflop with AJ? From villain's description, doesn't look like it. JT is even less likely. Pretty stumped myself.

[Cocco_Bill]

He either has nothing or sevens full. I'm gonna go with sevens full since you bothered to post this hand.

You think he is checking a full house on the river?

[Cocco_Bill]

77, not much else makes sense to me (and 77 doesn't make that much sense either ), or would he call preflop with AJ? From villain's description, doesn't look like it. JT is even less likely. Pretty stumped myself.

I don't understand why you would put him on a tight range of hands here. This is SB against BB, a heads up situation.

[EricE]

I don't understand why you would put him on a tight range of hands here. This is SB against BB, a heads up situation.

Exactly. This could be just a blind war. I can't comment though because everytime I make a read like that and take it all the way it turns out he had a hand.

[BankItDrew]

QQ is my best bet.

I think T7 is a closer one though. He slowed down when the second 6 came, giving his opponent a better two-pair is holding a jack.

[nutsinho]

Oops, you're right, I don't think he'd check 77 on the river. When I read it originally I thought he was checking to induce a bluff on the missed straight or flush draw you repped, but I didnt see that the flush card actually fell on the turn. I 'm thinking high pockets now, and that it was an excellent bluff. NH

[p-i]

77, not much else makes sense to me (and 77 doesn't make that much sense either ), or would he call preflop with AJ? From villain's description, doesn't look like it. JT is even less likely. Pretty stumped myself.

I don't understand why you would put him on a tight range of hands here. This is SB against BB, a heads up situation.

Sorry, I thought from your description that was pretty tight and that he wouldn't get into a blind war. My mistake.

[Fnord]

I'm all-in before we get to a river...

[Sed]

89 maybe of diamonds...

- sed

[Fnord]

77, not much else makes sense to me (and 77 doesn't make that much sense either ), or would he call preflop with AJ? From villain's description, doesn't look like it. JT is even less likely. Pretty stumped myself.

I don't understand why you would put him on a tight range of hands here. This is SB against BB, a heads up situation.

Yay for weak/tight NL25 players...

[Cocco_Bill]

Opponent folded, so I don't know what he had. I am not saying that this was a well played hand, in fact I think I was lucky to get away with it.

Nonetheless here is my thought process throughout the hand.

I raise a lot BB vs SB when SB only calls. I also expect that my opponent here will call with a wide range of hands.

The flop check-raise obviously tells me that he hit something. He expects me to miss the flop so he could perfectly well check raise with a pair of jacks, two pair(JT, J7, T7), a set, a draw or even a slow played overpair. I call with my two overcards and open ended straight draw for the implied odds.

He bets less than half the pot on the turn. Did he hit a flush or did that card scare him? I call, I have a high diamond, I hope this is an out if he has a made flush.

Opponent checks. Now from his perspective, I raised pre flop, I called the flop and turn. I might have an overpair, If I do his two pair is useless as the 6 on the river gave me higher two pair. If he has a pair of jacks he is looking for a cheap showdown now.
I however feel that he would not check a flush or a full house on the river. I think he has two pair or a pair of jacks, he is scared of a flush or an overpair.
I also know that I will lose the pot if I check behind. The question is will a push take down the pot 50% of the time? I'm not sure.

[JCooper]

Well I have the benefit of hindsight, but my guess was going to be AJ and that he wouldn't fold - but I mostly play 25NL and at your table I expect there should be people folding TPTK when when the AI is really just pot-sized. Glad you got away with it.

[JCooper]

Oh I think its just as likely he had absolutely nothing here - he put you on a steal and tried to resteal. Sometimes the extra pressure on the turn would pay off but he probably should have bet more there if thats what he was doing.

[Robert]

I'm all-in before we get to a river...

Please explain how you would have played the hand

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think if he's a really good reader and puts you on a missed draw then he'd probably check to induce a bluff with strength. But at 25 nl this is probably really weak so I like your bluff.

[bdawg56kg]

I think villian had a hand like J9/QJ. I suppose he could also have a draw, but it doesn't seem as likely. It is tough for him to call a push because the board was really dangerous with a possible straight, flush, and full house.

Also, would you really push this river with an overpair? If I had an overpair here, I think I'd just check behind given the texture of the board and previous action.

[Blinky]

I like this post. Thanks, Cocco, especially for the line of reasoning you gave.

It also reminds me why as an inexperienced player I avoid this kind of stuff . (JT or T7 seem the obvious ones to me but I've not the real experience to really narrow things down so much other than "he hit the flop" so Jx and Tx).

Fnord, what do you put the opp on and when are you filling the middle of the table?

[Cocco_Bill]

I think villian had a hand like J9/QJ. I suppose he could also have a draw, but it doesn't seem as likely. It is tough for him to call a push because the board was really dangerous with a possible straight, flush, and full house.

Also, would you really push this river with an overpair? If I had an overpair here, I think I'd just check behind given the texture of the board and previous action.

Yes, I would check behind with an overpair. I would also have checked behind in this hand had I hit a K or Q on the river.

[Fnord]

Fnord, what do you put the opp on and when are you filling the middle of the table?

2 cards.
On the flop, I have one of those hands where I'm going to spray.

In retrospect, I like Coco's line. If he's drawing, let him miss and take it away when no one can call.