Hard decision

[IOS]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($77.85)
MP ($58.95)
Hero ($144.75)
SB ($116.95)
BB ($155.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, K.
1 fold, MP calls $1, Hero calls $1, SB completes, BB raises to $3, MP calls $2, Hero calls $2, SB folds.

Flop: ($10) K, 6, J (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7, MP calls $7.

Turn: ($31) 5 (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero checks.

River: ($31) 7 (3 players)
BB bets $145.3 (All-In), MP folds, Hero ???

What would you do? My read is this guy is very laggy. What hand do you think would bet the river like this? I'll pretty much say I let the timer run out before I made my decision. I'll post the results once I get some responses.

[Fnord]

If he's a thinking LAgg, you're fucked. He'll show you air a fair % of the time, but will often be value betting a big hand because he knows a $145 bet has much better value than a $30 bet.

Yeah, I think I fold this one to Ripptyde.

If he's throwing a party or you otherwise can put him on a pattern you might be good here.

How often is he raising out of the blinds when shown weakness? What does his flop check/call mean?

Consider your play of the hand and how it got you here. Is K2s good enough to play given the table texture? Why check the turn? You're under-reprenting your hand, as this looks like a flush draw that didn't get there.

[r8ed]

Even with a LAGG, you seriously can't call this. You called the preflop raise with K2s hoping to hit the flush (I assume). You didn't, but you hit the trap hand. You have a very slim chance of having the best hand. If you feel this is a river bluff, then let him take it this time and you'll get it back later. He'll think he can pull this move again. I love giving these guys confident to push me off a hand. They end up giving my chips back and then some later.

[Fnord]

Even with a LAGG, you seriously can't call this.

Why not?

You called the preflop raise with K2s hoping to hit the flush (I assume).

Is continuing with hands weaker than the 2nd nut a leak now?

You didn't, but you hit the trap hand. You have a very slim chance of having the best hand.

If by slim, you mean something like 5% or less, then I strongly disagree.

If you feel this is a river bluff, then let him take it this time and you'll get it back later. He'll think he can pull this move again. I love giving these guys confident to push me off a hand. They end up giving my chips back and then some later.

Mixed feelings here. On the one hand, picking up a pattern might set-up a hand later. On the other hand, passing a good edge for a later edge that may or not come depending on how chips move about the table in a cash game is just an excuse for a weak fold.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

I don't like the check on the turn at all because it puts you in situations like this on the river. Unless you have an excellent read on the BB, I don't possibly know how you could make a case for calling the river if you're not confident enough to bet the turn. I personally don't like the pre-flop limp with K2s, but at least you had the button. You wasted your positional advantage though by forfeiting your control on the turn. The only check I like would be checking behind on the river after betting the turn.

Is he the type of player that would risk $135 to win $30 with anything less than top pair? This is exactly the reason the AI overbet with a strong hand works. People think too much into it. Again, I fold without a strong read because I'm thinking you're crushed.

[EricE]

I think he called the flop with a pair of 6s and hit two pair on the turn or river. I wouldn’t call this.

[bdawg56kg]

Without a solid read you have to fold this. Just saying he's LAG isn't good enough. What hands has he shown down, and has he been doing this all-in overbet often? Also, he raised out of the BB after two limpers, so unless he's a total donk, he probably has a good hand. And most times overbets on the river, plus the fact that he's betting into two other opponents, makes bluffing even less likely. I wouldn't be surprised if BB had a hand like KK or JJ and was looking to CR the shit out of whoever bet the turn.

Also, I don't mind the turn check so much. It's quite obvious MP is on a draw, either QT or spades, and with position we can hope for a free/cheap showdown, since neither BB/MP has shown any strength on both the flop and turn.

[r8ed]

Even with a LAGG, you seriously can't call this.

Why not?
I guess I need more info than "very laggy" to make this call. Does he push way over the top often? Isn't this how LAGGs get paid off? They hope people get sick of them and trap? I don't see the AGG until the river here, which could mean busted flush or slowplay or made hand at river. Even then K3 beats you. I'm a little more patient I guess.

You called the preflop raise with K2s hoping to hit the flush (I assume).

Is continuing with hands weaker than the 2nd nut a leak now?
This hand is MUCH weaker than 2nd nut. You can continue but somebody just dropped the hammer and you can't put them on a small range - you can only hope they have a busted draw.

You didn't, but you hit the trap hand. You have a very slim chance of having the best hand.

If by slim, you mean something like 5% or less, then I strongly disagree.
It's hard to get a percentage when your only hope is a busted draw. Even at 30% chance of winning you don't have odds. You just have hope.

If you feel this is a river bluff, then let him take it this time and you'll get it back later. He'll think he can pull this move again. I love giving these guys confident to push me off a hand. They end up giving my chips back and then some later.

Mixed feelings here. On the one hand, picking up a pattern might set-up a hand later. On the other hand, passing a good edge for a later edge that may or not come depending on how chips move about the table in a cash game is just an excuse for a weak fold.

I look at it as a strong fold. You refuse to invest more chips into a pot that you barely invested in just to take a shot. If you don't get him later, so be it.

If the read was - checks when on a draw and overbets/pushes when misses - and he did this more than once, then show off your player reading prowess and call. Otherwise, just calling because he's loose-aggressive (broad term) is not a great line. Like I mention above - I'm willing to let him have this one and get it back later.

[IOS]

Here are my thoughts throughout the hand.

Preflop-I have the button, this guy has been raising with anything. I'm looking to flop two pair/flush draw.

Flop-It's checked to me, I make a 3/4 pot bet and hope to take it down right there. I will fold to any aggression.

Turn-The LAG was always cbetting/check raising his weak hands/draws. His flat call on the flop made me think he was strong. (two pair, set)

River-I forgot everything I've ever learned about poker and was comtemplating a call with top pair weakest kicker. His bet just seemed so fishy to me. I know most people would say easy fold here, the pot isn't huge and so on. But I had a strong read on this guy and I believed I was good here. All in all, I called, my hardest call in poker.

I put him on a busted draw. But the crazy part was he didn't even have the flush draw. He mucked [Ac, Qc]. GG

[BankItDrew]

I put him on ace high.

Oh shit... nice call.

[STIdrivr]

nice hand. I had a feeling he was bluffing.

[EricE]

He mucked [Ac, Qc]. GG

Meh. I'm so weak.

[Fnord]

River-I forgot everything I've ever learned about poker and was comtemplating a call with top pair weakest kicker. His bet just seemed so fishy to me. I know most people would say easy fold here, the pot isn't huge and so on. But I had a strong read on this guy and I believed I was good here. All in all, I called, my hardest call in poker.

Win or lose you're a better player for taking the leap of faith and making that call.

[Lukie]

I fold without a strong read because I'm thinking you're crushed.