Over-played?

[Fnord]

Opponent just sat down with a short-buy. Well at least I think that because I don't have any stats for him yet...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB ($9)
BB ($182.45)
UTG ($39.95)
UTG+1 ($79)
MP1 ($101.70)
MP2 ($124.70)
MP3 ($139.95)
CO ($102.70)
Fnord ($250.20)

Preflop: Fnord is Button with 9, 9.
UTG calls $1, 5 folds, Fnord raises to $4, 2 folds, UTG calls $3.

Flop: ($9.50) 2, 7, 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Fnord bets $6, UTG calls $6.

Turn: ($21.50) 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Fnord bets $30...

[midas06]

You're not scared of a flush here?

[Fnord]

You're not scared of a flush here?

Should I be?

[mxiu]

No flush. 2 overs calling you down, or maybe 67. Opp may have a flush, but moreso than not, they'll call you down with something else given your reads.

[midas06]

Or a set. Anyway, I don't think there's much value in this hand. Better hands call, worse hands fold, you don't get any value out of it.

[Fnord]

Better hands call, worse hands fold, you don't get any value out of it.

I'm certain worse hands call that bet. A better hand might even fold, it really depends on how quickly he wants to gamble with his stack.

[midas06]

Well, what range of hands do you put villain on?

[mxiu]

Well, what range of hands do you put villain on?

"Opponent just sat down with a short-buy. Well at least I think that because I don't have any stats for him yet... "

Small stack, no stats = more than likely a new player?

[Fnord]

Well, what range of hands do you put villain on?

Good question.

2 hearts
8x
7x
any pocket pair
big Ace (or maybe not so big, particularly if it's s00ted)
KQ
T9
JT
65

Disagree?

[Fnord]

Small stack, no stats = more than likely a new player?

Short-buy, limped UTG, check+called twice. If it walks like dead money, plays like dead money and smells like dead money...

[mxiu]

Fnord makes stuff make sense. I love it. Good post.

[midas06]

At 100nl do you see people limping 2 big cards very often?

edit: didn't see the post above saying villain was a fish.

[Fnord]

Fnord makes stuff make sense. I love it. Good post.

For what it's worth, I'm a long way from sold on my line here being the best one. Just explaining some of how I got there.

[Fnord]

At 100nl do you see people limping 2 big cards very often?

Often, particularly at full ring. Many players don't raise nearly enough.

Even the aware players will limp stuff as good as AKo looking to trap a bit, play a small pot and maybe even thinking they'll get a sTAgg like me to try to run an isolate + destory line against them and put in a bet more than I really should.

[arkana]

I like a 1/2-2/3 pot much better (you can get the rest on the river), i think you fold out weaker hands this way and i really dont think you are making him fold any hands that beat you.

[Fnord]

I like a 1/2-2/3 pot much better.

River plan?

Part of why I pushed is that I can't see getting a lot of value out of any river...

[mxiu]

Well, what range of hands do you put villain on?

Good question.

2 hearts
8x
7x
any pocket pair
big Ace (or maybe not so big, particularly if it's s00ted)
KQ
T9
JT
65

Disagree?

You're beating everything but 2 hearts and TT-JJ.

The hands that paired the board may still call, the drawing hands may still call with a heart in their hand. I like the bet. If you're wrong, you have a draw to a small flush as well. Check the river behind though.

[Fnord]

Check the river behind though.

$30 puts him all-in.

[mxiu]

Didn't notice that.

I also just realized he doesn't have a higher PP unless he's a complete donk.

[arkana]

I like a 1/2-2/3 pot much better.

River plan?

Part of why I pushed is that I can't see getting a lot of value out of any river...

Pot is ~$20 on the turn, if you bet $14 and he calls the pot will be ~$48 on the river. I doubt hes going to fold to a $16 bet on the river if the pot is that big.

[Fnord]

Pot is ~$20 on the turn, if you bet $14 and he calls the pot will be ~$48 on the river. I doubt hes going to fold to a $16 bet on the river if the pot is that big.

You're thinking a street ahead, but looking at this backwards from the way I looked at it. A lot of river cards are going to be ugly and with a big pot, we're going to have trouble not calling the rest off.

[arkana]

Pot is ~$20 on the turn, if you bet $14 and he calls the pot will be ~$48 on the river. I doubt hes going to fold to a $16 bet on the river if the pot is that big.

You're thinking a street ahead, but looking at this backwards from the way I looked at it. A lot of river cards are going to be ugly and with a big pot, we're going to have trouble not calling the rest off.

If you always call the river then you are giving him roughly 3:1 on his money ($14 to win $50) so he needs about 12 outs for it to be a good call. The pot equity he is giving up by folding is less than the value you gain when he calls.

[salsa4ever]

Pot is ~$20 on the turn, if you bet $14 and he calls the pot will be ~$48 on the river. I doubt hes going to fold to a $16 bet on the river if the pot is that big.

You're thinking a street ahead, but looking at this backwards from the way I looked at it. A lot of river cards are going to be ugly and with a big pot, we're going to have trouble not calling the rest off.

If you always call the river then you are giving him roughly 3:1 on his money ($14 to win $50) so he needs about 12 outs for it to be a good call. The pot equity he is giving up by folding is less than the value you gain when he calls.

I concur with the principle but not the calculation. Basically, he's gonna pay $30 to see the river. I'm prepared to put in 30 by the river no matter what: so it doesn't matter whether the money goes in on the turn or on the river (except that it 'feels better' to get all the money in on the turn and then be sucked out than to be sucked out and then put the rest in).

So: 2 lines on the turn - bet $18 with the intention of pushing on the river no matter what OR

bet $30 as played.

If opponent was decent it wouldn't matter but we assume villain is dead money. Therefore, what is more important: the extra fold equity of a $30 bet or the extra likelihoood of the $18 being called (villian not realizing it gets him committed). I say in this situation, making the less intimidating bet has more to gain ('cos he ain't folding a flush).

[Fnord]

I also just realized he doesn't have a higher PP unless he's a complete donk.

He had Aces and check/called it all the way....

[dsaxton]

I think you could make a smaller bet that doesn't pot commit you to calling a raise. I'd bet about $12, and if he calls, put him all-in on the river if he checks. If he raises, I would fold.

I don't see much value in betting $30 for the reasons midas mentioned. If he's ahead he calls and you lose $30, if you're ahead he usually folds. I'd make a smaller bet that avoids losing $30 when he's ahead (you can comfortably fold to a raise), but often wins $30 across the turn and river when you're ahead (if he's passive he will probably call the turn bet with top pair, his most likely made calling hand on the flop, and be committed to calling on the river as well).

[bigredhoss]

given your hand and the board and opp's stack I can't really think of a line I love, but yours seems fine imo.

[mxiu]

I also just realized he doesn't have a higher PP unless he's a complete donk.

He had Aces and check/called it all the way....

Did you buddy-list him?

[nutsinho]

check folding after the flop is your best option

[Fnord]

check folding after the flop is your best option

How about, no fucking way....

[mxiu]

check folding after the flop is your best option

This makes me want to play with you...

[Miffed22001]

check folding after the flop is your best option

This makes me want to play with you...

this makes me want to play with you, when you arent playing with fnord of course

The line looks fine to me, just found this post, although i dont see what 30 acheives more than a smaller bet, not too much smaller of course.
My problem would be getting called through two streets (and a 30 bet having raised preflop) by a guy who has just sat down with half a buy in...