NCAA Wednesday

[metaxy6]

Iona -6
Vandy +3
TCU +7
Georgia +8.5
all for 1u

Any late plays out there??

[kling]

Went 3-2.

Hit Pitt, Florida, South Florida
Lost miserably on Cal Poly and Florida St.

[Grand_MasterB]

I was playing poker all day yesterday and didnt get to look at the games till i got back... looks like i missed some good bets out there. I got in on Colorado +1 right before tip so atleast i won something as i got owned playing poker.

[metaxy6]

Ya I got on Colrorado also, but it was cancelled out by a play on Weber St.
I've been slightly put off by these huge lines, and tried something different - basically just following sharp $ on the TCU and Vandy plays (2 home teams coming off a night when the home teams covered well).

One thing that's really bugging me is game selection - anyone can only really look into so many games and then a small portion of those are going to be worth a play. I've been using the Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Basketball.asp
as a guide to where the values might be and where to focus. But that's meant missing out on some games that were really worth a look.

In poker, I feel just fine about folding 6-8 suited early in an aggro game and missing a straight flush, but in ncaa it sucks to keep passing games like Northeastern -16.5 over JMadison because the line looks scary.

So, I'm trying to get a better system for selecting looks in the first place.
Also trying to get a handle on what's going on this time of the season - how much injuries mean, how to work with huge lines, what to expect on the 2nd meeting between conference opponents, as well as just what stats are the difference-makers right now.

I'm in the middle of running #'s from about 70 games played this week to get at some of those things, and will be glad to share any useful findings if you guys are interested.