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 Originally Posted by Lukie
Well if you have QQ-KK, you have to worry about overcards, but I'm going to ignore those for now. If you have, say AA, he has a mid pair drawing to 2 outs. He's getting 5.6:1 on the immediate call, but he's about 12:1 against hitting his 2 outer by the river. Assume full stack implied odds.
He needs to call $10 into $56 pot, plus hero's remaining stack which is $167 more. So $10 to win $223. 22:1. He's getting 5.6:1  . Of course I conveniently ignored your inevitable turn bet with a big hand, but you get the point. Factor in metagame purposes, desire to win a large pot with a dream flop for a high PP, etc., and you just aren't playing a big pair like this. Nor should you.
Lukie, good points. Makes a lot of sense. The one thing that you touched on that I think is very important is that if villian has a hand like 88, and calls the flop raise with the sole intent of hitting his 2 outer, then he has to know a big turn bet is coming, if he puts me on an overpair. This ruins his immediate and implied odds a great deal, so in that sense the flop min-raise is not as bad as the numbers seem IMO. But looking back you are probably right in that I should've raised bigger on the flop. Also, regarding the overcards, if I have a hand like QQ, I definitely don't want to see any A's or K's come out, but it is pretty unlikely he is calling me down with a hand like AK/AQ, so in that sense it would probably just add to my fold equity. Plus I have position, so that would really help to control the pot size if I needed to.
 Originally Posted by Lukie
Yeah, I raise the flop hard. Obvious fold to a flop 3-bet. Fold if he leads into you on a blank turn. Check behind a blank turn. No reason to put more $$ in if you don't improve. I disagree with those who say otherwise. This is also great for metagame purposes...
You recommend raising the flop to $40 and checking behind on the turn if I miss. I don't like this, as I think loose players, like the villian in this hand will look you up just to see if you slow down on the turn. Based on the way the hand played out, and from what I could sense from the speed of his calls, this guy really didn't want to let go of his mid PP. So I think (at least in this situation) if you are going to commit to bluffing/semi-bluffing, then you have to be prepared to take it the distance IMO.
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