hold'em or fold'em?

[Pingviini]

semi-solid guy raises 3x, button calls, I raise to 10x to 40 with KK
flop 678 two spades, I bet 100 into 122 pot, have about 230 left, semi-solid guy goes AI, he covers, button folds..
Pingviini?

[aislephive]

I don't know his raising hand range, if he is the type to raise suited connectors/medium pairs then I would fold here, but if he is a solid player I think I would put him on a smaller overpair and call. That's really a tough spot with KK there.

[Iwind]

What could he put you on making that 10x from the blinds? If he'd most likely only put you on AA/KK, I doubth he'd make that push with something you can beat, and I'd fold. I mean he has button to act behind him when pushing too.

If he put you on a wider range though he might push hands you're ahead of I'd think. Guessing you'd still be behind at least half the time, but getting 1:3I think a call would be good. And I'm guessing you can make this 10x raise with a wider range of hands than just AA/KK, right?

[Demiparadigm]

ez call @ 4:1

expect to lose.

[Pingviini]

He raises pretty freely I guess.

I can do raising from the blinds with other cards besides AA/KK but he doesnt necessarily know it. He is kinda loose at times but on the other hand I havent seen him making any big semi-bluffs.

Anybody want not to raise with KK? should I raise more PF? should I bet another amount on flop? I dont really think so. Tough spot here..

[AHiltz]

How often have you been cbetting? Showed down any crap after cbetting?

[arkana]

ez call @ 4:1

expect to lose.

Pot on flop is 122, Ping bets 100, opponent pushes for 100+another 230 (assuming he covers Ping)

122+100+100+230 = 552
552:230 is 2.4:1

Not such great odds

[Renton]

couldn't TT-QQ conceivably be playing back at you here.? And more importantly, could this be TT-QQ enough to be profitable?

[arkana]

couldn't TT-QQ conceivably be playing back at you here.? And more importantly, could this be TT-QQ enough to be profitable?

Against a solid 400NL player I dont think you will see TT-QQ enough here for it to be profitable unless there are other factors (for example Ping has reraised in this situation PF a lot or villain is very aggro). I just dont see Ping winning here more than the 30% required.

[zenbitz]

Semi bluff?

[gabe]

FOLD FOLD FOLD

[alias2211]

a quote from Super System II, pg. 455,

"I play a pair of Aces or Kings very cautiously from an early position when there's three cards that'll make a Straight or a Flush on the Flop. THis is especially true if there are two or more people in the pot with me. The guys that called behind me are liable to have anything. In that position, they've either got a hand that could break me... or I'll win a very small pot if I bet. So, in an early position, a bell rings (reminding me not to bet) when I see three to a Straight or Flush on the Flop when I've got Aces or Kings in the pocket. Consequently, I immediately start playing that hand slow... and usually I just check in a front position."

it's so hard not to bet that flop. so hard. but by doing so so largely you've passed the chance for someone to apply the pressure point of the hand on you instead of doing it to them. you gave him room to make a great semibluff attempt, OR to push back on you w/ a better hand (set, 2 pr, OESFD, etc.) which he took like a good player would do.

the more i think about doyle's line here the more i like it, especially when i see how not following it can manifest in such bitchass tough decisions like this one. but it really, really takes some discipline to appreciate AND follow this advice...

[Pingviini]

is that what you would do?

that is very true. c/f here would just seem really silly considering I re-raised PF.

[zenbitz]

Doyle doesn't say to check/FOLD... he just sez check.
So you can check/fold, check/call, or check/raise.

This latter actually seems like a good line with deep money... putting the pressure on him. If he re-raises, you can be (more) confident he is not making a move with air or semi-bluff. Against an aggro player, check/call is goot too... although you will be sad if more spades middle cards come down.

[alias2211]

Doyle doesn't say to check/FOLD... he just sez check.
So you can check/fold, check/call, or check/raise.

lol, yes i suppose it does seem like doyle is kind of passing the buck on that statement. and even he admits that he struggles at lower stakes w/ normal stacks (i.e. </=100BB). but i think the 'bell goes off' warning that he gives is definitely an encouragement for us to condition ourselves to play very cautiously and to remember that AA and KK win small pots and lose big pots, leaning towards the latter with coordinated boards. so be careful w/ KK on this kind of board i think is key, don't go on autopilot. leading out OOP in a multiway pot is not cautious unless you decide before you bet that it's the last $100 you're going to put in that pot.

PING: doyle also says that when he brings it in for a raise PF, he also bets out 90% of the time on the flop, no matter what the cards or the board, even if he thinks/knows he's behind. he calls it the 'courtesy bet' but most of us have come to refer to it as the continuation bet. that Cbet maintains your image and gets you the action when you need it, and helps you pickup pots you don't deserve along the way. so in this case, you might have found yourself somewhere in the 90% range and pulled the trigger, and i don't have a problem with that, it certainly isn't silly to Cbet. but when it comes down to it, EV is measured in positivity or negativity, not in silliness. so you kept your image up w/ the Cbet, but i'm not sure how +EV that call is on the push.

you failed to mention if either of your KK was a spade, so I will assume that you were all red here for purposes of calculating odds:

Let's say he has a lowly pair of 55 just to start, you're still only 3:2 favorite to call.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1618522
pokenum -h kd kh - 5s 5c -- 6s 7s 8c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 6s 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Kh 572 57.78 387 39.09 31 3.13 0.593
5s 5c 387 39.09 572 57.78 31 3.13 0.407

Now let's give him a slightly stronger hand, like 87d:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1618523
pokenum -h kd kh - 8d 7d -- 6s 7s 8c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 6s 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Kh 252 25.45 690 69.70 48 4.85 0.279
8d 7d 690 69.70 252 25.45 48 4.85 0.721

or how about even a set of 777:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1618527
pokenum -h kd kh - 7c 7d -- 6s 7s 8c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 6s 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Kh 88 8.89 854 86.26 48 4.85 0.113
7c 7d 854 86.26 88 8.89 48 4.85 0.887

Or the nut flush draw + OESD: (A5s)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1618532
pokenum -h kd kh - as 5s -- 6s 7s 8c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 6s 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Kh 364 36.77 599 60.51 27 2.73 0.381
As 5s 599 60.51 364 36.77 27 2.73 0.619

Or just the nut draw w/ no straight draw, a coinflip:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1618543
pokenum -h kd kh - as js -- 6s 7s 8c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 6s 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Kh 514 51.92 458 46.26 18 1.82 0.528
As Js 458 46.26 514 51.92 18 1.82 0.472

So, if he's on the worst draw that would possibly make sense to push against you there, you're 60/40ish to win. But if he has any thing more than the bottom of that range on that highly coordinated board, you're coinflip or way behind and have bet off 1/3 of your remaining chips OOP.