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 Originally Posted by AHiltz
preflop needs to be bigger
flop will be bigger since preflop was bigger.
against an unknown on turn, bet 1/2 pot and fold to a raise, then check the river and make any necessary crying calls.
I have followed this line repeatedly...the problem with it I think is that you are showing weakness as you progress, and not continued strength, even though you are unsure of your hand (with which you are legitimately concerned).
It has tended to make me vulnerable to ridiculous river bets. There are plenty of times where I can pick these off and win, when I have a specific read that the person overvalues top pair, calls down to bluff at weakness, etc. But without these reads, against an unknown, the ridiculous river overbet against always seems to be a strong hand.
And, if they are really strong by then, they will generally overbet. If they aren't sure of their hand they check behind or bet weakly, even if they think you might be bluffing with missed overs or whatever.
This guy probably does not have a straight here. His river bet is not much of a value bet in that pot. You'd probably be willing (after a long pause) to call at least your $9-$10 turn bet on the end with the strength you have shown. He seems to be working off of one pair, something like Ax suited where he caught a little something - maybe even had the flush draw.
Obviously you have to call on the end to pay for a read on this guy and there's no point served in raising unless you are confident in some read.
But in general, if we are going to show ultimate weakness by checking on the end, then I think I prefer the line of a larger than 1/2 pot turn bet.
And I'm still not sure I like the bet/bet/check line (out of position) against an unknown that doesn't show any further strength until the end after we show weakness. I think we may be better off leading a blocking bet ($9-15 here) on the river - the whole worse hands will call better hands will raise kinda thing.
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