99 overplaid vs flush draw?

[magneticskull]

The question is, pre-river, did I overplay it, or did the math support my decision... (thanks)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($3.35)
UTG+1 ($5.55)
MP1 ($8.15)
MP2 ($12.30)
MP3 ($3.70)
CO ($8.75)
Hero ($3.60)
SB ($20.90)
BB ($4.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9.
5 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.25, 1 fold, BB calls $0.15, CO calls $0.15.

Flop: ($0.80) 4, T, 9 (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $0.1, BB folds, CO calls $0.10.

Turn: ($1) 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.25, CO raises to $0.5, Hero calls $0.25.

River: ($2) T (2 players)

Final Pot: $2

[nutsinho]

what sort of unfunny joke is this

[sejje]

Overplay it? You bet 1/8 pot. How could that be an overplay in ANY circumstance?

You played it poorly, but you didn't overplay it.

[magneticskull]

My bad - unclear question (I was intentionally underplaying the flop, although that itself could have been a dumber move than I thought at the time)

More specific question is, should I have called his 1/2 pot raise when that flush hit...? Or was 1/2 pot still a weak bet (he was trying to slow play ME)

[vegascoop]

Your bet says 'take the pot away from me' so you have know way of knowing where you are.

A better line would have been raise at least 4X BB PF. Then 2/3 to pot size on the flop. If you get action after that, you'll have a better idea what it means.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Okay... I think you really need to play hands stronger. I'm not sure also if you have any concept of what the pot is, because he didn't raise you 1/2 the pot on the turn? Somethings not clicking here.

[sejje]

I'm not sure also if you have any concept of what the pot is, because he didn't raise you 1/2 the pot on the turn?

Yeah, that was a 1/5th pot raise. GC Iowa.

[mxiu]

This is how NOT to play a set.

[magneticskull]

I'm not sure also if you have any concept of what the pot is, because he didn't raise you 1/2 the pot on the turn?

Yeah, that was a 1/5th pot raise. GC Iowa.

Math clearly not my strong suit here.
To review... Pot after turn card= 1.00
I bet .25 (1/4 pot?) , pot is then 1.25, he raises to .50 (a RAISE of .25, thus 1/5?).
What I meant (I think) was that he BET .50 which was 1/2 of the pot BEFORE I bet. I may need to adjust my thinking somewhat to account for my own betting (lol).
Thanks
Between chronology and semantics, I get confused sometimes.

Obviously, (now) I UNDERplayed pre and post flop. If I had bet bigger pre and bigger again post, how many of you would have folded the A high flush draw? (Is that results oriented? When I saw the Heart hit on the turn, I had to pause to consider Ax Hearts...which is what he had)

Final analysis, I think we BOTH played poorly by underplaying. It was a slowroll competition and I sucked it out.

Someday, poker children will study this hand and point, and laugh, and then shake their heads and sigh.

[bair]

i would call you down with any draw here, you need to bet much more. anytime you bet less on the flop than you did preflop you should seriously reevaluate your game. you bet 1/8 the pot on the flop, never do that again. you need to be thinking about your bets in relation to pot and stack size, and not just be betting whatever you feel like.

[magneticskull]

i would call you down with any draw here, you need to bet much more. anytime you bet less on the flop than you did preflop you should seriously reevaluate your game. you bet 1/8 the pot on the flop, never do that again. you need to be thinking about your bets in relation to pot and stack size, and not just be betting whatever you feel like.

Bair,
Gosh, I better reevaluate my game... maybe I should post some questionable hands on a reputable poker forum and get some constructive feedback from knowledgable players?

I'm so sorry I "felt" like making a deliberate (if flawed) choice of underplaying this hand a bit to suck in my opponent. Of course, I find it hard to move on from this mistake, for two reasons:
1) people keep mentioning it after I have acknowledged the error of my ways, and
2) IT WORKED. I WON THE DAMN HAND. I SUCKED OUT AN ACE HIGH FLUSH WITH A DONKEY FULL HOUSE.

But I posted it here to see if I should have folded at the TURN - (PRE SUCKOUT)
That was my question. I think the answer is yes. I am gonna stop typing now, as angry typing is sometimes as bad as angry raising (if less expensive.)

Seriously, thanks to all who replied. Bair, ease up a bit. I'm a donkey, but I'm trying to learn to swim with the sharks.

[Fnord]

If you flop a set and didn't put a lot of money into the pot then consider that you might have misplayed (under-played) your hand.

[strawman]

But I posted it here to see if I should have folded at the TURN - (PRE SUCKOUT)
That was my question. I think the answer is yes.

The anwer is no. You're getting 7-1 pot odds and most likely all ten of you outs are good here so it's a mandatory call.

[BankItDrew]

Now that you know you should have bet more, let's see how much you should have bet:

Personally, I like to play sets like AA or KK on boards like this. Board like this, meaning that QJ or 78 or two hearts have 8-9 (not considering straight flush) outs on you to make their straight or flush. Let's say for this example that they had AXhearts, and have 9 outs. This means that they will hit one of their 9 cards approx. 36% of the time by the river, or 18% of the time by the turn.

What you need to do, is have them call bets that make it too expensive for them to chase the flush. The best way to do this on the flop is to bet the pot ($0.80). Your opponent would then call and invest $0.80 into the now $1.60 pot. His investment = 33% because 0.8/2.4 = 1/3. Here, he is getting good POT odds assuming you check the turn AND river. He is getting good odds here because his 33% investment is lower than the 36% of hitting his flush.

It gets easier and simpler to explain and bet on the turn, because there are less streets to consider. Let's say a club came on the turn, and it's your turn to bet into the $2.40 pot. He is still on a flush draw, with 9 outs to hurt you = 18% chance of him winning. In order to outbet his draw here assuming pot odds, you need his turn investment to be greater than 18%.
****A really important point to consider here however, are implied odds, I'll get to this after the turn.****
So, to outbet the draw, bet 50% of the pot. You bet $0.8 to make the pot $3.60. He needs to now invest $1.20 into a $3.60 pot. His investment is: 1.2/4.8 = 25%. Great! Now he is calling 25% when he will only win 18% of the time.

This is an example of outbetting your opponents pot odds. To do this however, is to NOT PUT ANYMORE $$ INTO THE POT once you think they have hit their draw ( a heart in this example ). But there is a big difference between pot odds, and implied odds.
My definition of implied odds: The expected final pot size in relation to drawing odds. Or, once we hit out draw, can we put even MORE $$ into the pot?

In the example above, our opponent invested 25% on the turn. This would be a good investment if he can win more than 4 times(100%) of his turn investment. In order to do this, he would have to bet on the river, or have us bet for him.

In order for us to eliminate these implied odds on the turn, we need to make another substantial bet to outbet our opponents draw. So, the pot is $2.40. Bet 2/3 of the pot ($1.60), to make the pot $4.00. His investment would now have to be $1.60 into a $4.00 pot, or 1.6/5.6 = 35%. This is only a justifiable call if he can profit about 3 times of this investment, 1/3 of the time. However, implied odds (more money being put into the river) state that our opponent can make this a profitable play if he can get more out of us if he hits his heart.

I know I didn't do the greatest job at explaining the implied odds situation, so someone please take over. I hope magneticskull gets my point for the most part. Any mathematical corrections would be appreciated.

[jackvance]

I personally would have just limped in preflop, called a 1BB raise max. But your bet turned out good. Postflop I would have raised 3/4pot - pot without hesitation. A clear flush draw possibility (and a potential straight draw with QJ). The pot is $0.75 right? Here I'd probably raise $0.60. I'd also consider lowering this to $0.50 or even $0.40 if the table generally plays scared.

[bair]

i would call you down with any draw here, you need to bet much more. anytime you bet less on the flop than you did preflop you should seriously reevaluate your game. you bet 1/8 the pot on the flop, never do that again. you need to be thinking about your bets in relation to pot and stack size, and not just be betting whatever you feel like.

Bair,
Gosh, I better reevaluate my game... maybe I should post some questionable hands on a reputable poker forum and get some constructive feedback from knowledgable players?

I'm so sorry I "felt" like making a deliberate (if flawed) choice of underplaying this hand a bit to suck in my opponent. Of course, I find it hard to move on from this mistake, for two reasons:
1) people keep mentioning it after I have acknowledged the error of my ways, and
2) IT WORKED. I WON THE DAMN HAND. I SUCKED OUT AN ACE HIGH FLUSH WITH A DONKEY FULL HOUSE.

But I posted it here to see if I should have folded at the TURN - (PRE SUCKOUT)
That was my question. I think the answer is yes. I am gonna stop typing now, as angry typing is sometimes as bad as angry raising (if less expensive.)

Seriously, thanks to all who replied. Bair, ease up a bit. I'm a donkey, but I'm trying to learn to swim with the sharks.

if you post a hand here i am going to analyze the entire thing and tell you everything i think. i didnt feel i was that harsh, im just telling you how it is. you're not going to "swim with the sharks" if you cant take some constructive criticism and berating in a game full of assholes

[magneticskull]

Bankit... That was a great post on the math. Really helpful.

Does it change things that I started the hand with 3.60 though... which was partly what started me on the slow rolling thing. Ah the cleansing power of hindsight...

Here's the (unsnipped- ALL IN) river betting.
(the way I snipped it was confusing, made the pot look like 2 bucks... I was trying to avoid showing the results. )

River: ($2) T (2 players)
CO bets $2, Hero raises to $2.75, CO calls $0.75.

Final Pot: $7.50

[BankItDrew]

Does it change things that I started the hand with 3.60 though...

Absolutly! Just like one of the previous posters mentioned - I would call with ANY sort of draw, even a gutshot because I would be 8% to hit. This is one problem with playing shortstacked, as you can't outbet any draws. Sorr, I didn't notice you had a short stack in this example you gave. I suggest topping up to the max buy-in as often as possible, I don't allow my stack to get any lower than 80% of the max. With a short stack, you also can't camp for sets as often as you could with a full stack.

If I have top pair top kicker on a flop and my opponent has a stack a few times larger than the pot or less, I'll push all in on the flop to eliminate any draws. AND, they might even call with a shitty hand because they think I'm bluffing.

One more helpful note, incase it's not something you know of yet: To figure out the odds of a draw hitting, take your outs and multiply them by either 2 or 4. Example: Flush draw (9 outs), on the flop multiply the outs by 4.... 9 x 4 = 36%.... On the turn, multiply by 2..... 9 x 2 = 18%.
So, multiply the outs by 4 on the flop and by 2 on the turn.

[jackvance]

.. and add 4 or 2 respectively for anything below 10 outs or you're underestimating your chances. Like 9 outs, 9x4+4=40%

[Fnord]

I personally would have just limped in preflop.

Limping here is terrible. We have what figures to be the best hand + position.

[andy-akb]

As has been said, you need to bet more on that flop so a flush draw isnt getting correct odds to call. Also, a justification for your move should not be "it worked, I won the hand." Simpyl because you won the hand doesnt mean you played it correctly. Im not going to repeat everything that others have said, but I will add some other thoughts. On the river it looks like you checked, why didnt you bet for value here? You have a full house and somebody could have hit their flush, you want to maximize your profits on these hands. And on a sidenote, this isnt a slowroll, its a slowplay. A slowplay is just that, playing a big hand slow by not betting much. A slowroll is considered incredibly bad etiquette and is when you know you have the winning hand but dont show it immediately.

[BankItDrew]

I personally would have just limped in preflop.

Limping here is terrible. We have what figures to be the best hand + position.

I just had a hand in the bb with 99 limped to me with two callers. I know i have the best hand here, but i'm oop w/o position. Raise preflop and hope for no overs hit?

[magneticskull]

Bankit... Thanks. That makes a lot of sense. I may have been playing a bit above my bankroll. (currently around 200). Not sure I should be throwing $10 into a ring game until some of these leaks are plugged.

Andy- Thanks for the vocab clearup. I think I posted the "it worked" crap in a moment of un-zen.
I knew after I won the hand that I had done it "ugly" so to speak and posted it within about a minute of winning because I felt there must have been a better way to play it.

You guys have been really helpful. Apologies to Bair for any emotional content.

[Fnord]

I personally would have just limped in preflop.

Limping here is terrible. We have what figures to be the best hand + position.

I just had a hand in the bb with 99 limped to me with two callers. I know i have the best hand here, but i'm oop w/o position. Raise preflop and hope for no overs hit?

Depends on the callers. A raise + c-bet is a nice play with 22-TT because you're either going to felt it or dump it on the flop anyway so you may as well show a little strength. Particuarly when they're giving you turn and river cards when they catch a little something.

[ProZachNation]

At 10NL I am usually raising 77+ 4xBB from any position.

With two hearts on the flop and playing 10NL where any sooted hole cards are good you cannt slow play. At 10nl do not try to be fancy ever just jam money into the pot when you have the best hand, give them shitty odds to chase their flush and str8s(they will chase them)

I can not repeat this more in a normal situation value bet do not slow play at 10NL, I went from a break even 10NL player(shut up I was bad) to killing it because I realized that slow playing was just letting people who played shit catch up to me.

Slow playing looks good because 1 in 20 times(pulled out of my ass) you will get the guy to fire out at you and you can stack him and it feels great, dont let that trick you into thinking it is +EV to slow play.

[BankItDrew]

Slow playing looks good because 1 in 20 times(pulled out of my ass) you will get the guy to fire out at you and you can stack him and it feels great, dont let that trick you into thinking it is +EV to slow play.

It took me a couple weeks playing ring games to realize that you should never slowplay. Actually, I slowplay if I have a monster and I wish that the turn and or river improves my opponents hand... so they catch up a little. Don't slowplay anything! If you miss the flop and bet the pot with ace high, do the same when you flop a set! Consistancy gives away the least amount of information.