100NL set of fives vs flush turn

[SmackinYaUp]

havent been playing too long, but the villain seemed pretty solid except he didnt lay down TPTK and was willing to reraise allin with it on the flop - he did this with AJ on a j high board a couple hands ago. Im seen as a little more aggressive than most and have been getting played back at some. A few hands ago I hit another set and played it exactly the same with one guy betting small, another minraising, and me jamming it. That time they all folded and I said nothing.

I don't see him calling 40 with a flush draw just because he didnt seem THAT fishy - on the other hand even after the flop action we both still have 100bbs behind so is it worth going broke to find out if he has the flush. What do I do here?


***** Hand History for Game 2939316129 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, April 01, 10:45:48 EDT 2006
Table Table 36553 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: gman2929 ( $183.92 )
Seat 2: AlaskaLover ( $93.85 )
Seat 6: akj76 ( $105.70 )
Seat 4: SlappinYaUp ( $168.25 )
Seat 5: lloh8 ( $47.30 )
Seat 3: David3pz ( $93.90 )
akj76 posts small blind [$0.50].
gman2929 posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SlappinYaUp [ 5s 5d ]
gman2929: wasted
gman2929: lol
AlaskaLover folds.
>You have options at Table 36592 (6 max) Table!.
David3pz calls [$1].
SlappinYaUp raises [$4].
>You have options at Table 36594 (6 max) Table!.
lloh8 calls [$4].
akj76 folds.
gman2929 calls [$3].
David3pz calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, 3h, 5c ]
gman2929 bets [$5].
David3pz raises [$15].
SlappinYaUp raises [$45].
lloh8: holy cow
>You have options at Table 36615 (6 max) Table!.
gman2929: yup
lloh8 folds.
SlappinYaUp: 72o
gman2929 calls [$40].
David3pz folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ]
>You have options at Table 36592 (6 max) Table!.
gman2929 is all-In [$134.92]

[alias2211]

Since the villain has a record of getting it all in w/ TPTK, he surely would be inclined to do the same here w/ AcJx or 2 pair+ right? I mean that is a nice bet you make on the flop. So given what you know about villian, this seems like a draw, he would just get it all in if he felt ahead and didn't want you to draw to clubs right? Most people probably don't smooth call your flop reraise w/ a hand that is already better that your set of 5s considering the flush draw board. They call with a draw to a better hand all the time though.

Lets give him the nut flush draw here:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1637435
pokenum -h ac jd - 5s 5d -- jc 3h 5c 9c
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Jc 9c 5c 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Jd 8 18.18 36 81.82 0 0.00 0.182
5s 5d 36 81.82 8 18.18 0 0.00 0.818

And then lets go ahead and give him the nut flush already here:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1637436
pokenum -h ac 6c - 5s 5d -- jc 3h 5c 9c
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Jc 9c 5c 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 6c 34 77.27 10 22.73 0 0.00 0.773
5s 5d 10 22.73 34 77.27 0 0.00 0.227

The question is, is it worth calling $120 more for a pot size of $240 in this spot ($16.50 preflop, another $105 on the flop, and then he pushes you all in for ~$120 more):

Since you're only going to pair the board to fill up about 1/3 times here, and you're only getting 2:1 on the money to make the call, you have to seriously consider folding unless you have a read that you want to go with instead of the odds. Pot would have to be $360-ish to make this a worthwhile proposition from an odds perspective only.

The $15 raise before you on the flop is repping a jack, so that might even be one less out you can count making odds even slightly worse.

You made the right bet on the flop, he chased and hit it most likely.

[SmackinYaUp]

Wow, thanks for the detailed analysis, alias. It definitely looks like a fold how you thought it out.

You don't think he'd check again here with the nuts instead of trying to scare me out?

What made me consider calling was that sometimes when the board gets a little threatening like it just did but also improves them, they will open push to eliminate the thinking. So I was wondering if he had something like AA, J9 who didnt believe me on the flop, or even something really retarded like 999. Your one card flush draw is probably the one I'd guess most likely though. what do you think?

[zenbitz]

This hand made no sense 'cause I thought you had 44.

[alias2211]

You don't think he'd check again here with the nuts instead of trying to scare me out?

You raised 1/3 of the size of his turn raise on the flop, so he 's got to think you have a hand. He's not going to give you a free card so that you can improve and beat him OR not improve and fold to his river push, so the time to get your money is on the turn. Or, he's looking for a fold w/ the Acx hand, but your relative stack sizes don't make it a really awful decision for you to call either way. If you both had $250-300+ remaining at the turn, a stack-committing bet from OOP would make a MUCH harder decision for you to call (in that case he wouldn't have to push but make a bet such that if you decide to take it ends up getting everything in anyway, like $175-200). So given the actual pot and bet sizes, if he's trying to get you off a better hand w/ the push, I don't think it ends up being a very good play since you could make a 'bad' call here and it wouldn't be too far off from a 'good' call.

What made me consider calling was that sometimes when the board gets a little threatening like it just did but also improves them, they will open push to eliminate the thinking. So I was wondering if he had something like AA, J9 who didnt believe me on the flop, or even something really retarded like 999. Your one card flush draw is probably the one I'd guess most likely though. what do you think?

Yes, this happens where players don't like to think. Especially ones that get it all in w/ TPTK more often than most players. I am certain he doesn't have AA since he didn't reraise you PF. He could have JJ, that is a possibility given the PF call and then how he makes the weak leader OOP into a crowd and then eagerly calls your huge raise on the flop (did he think about it, or was it instacall? That might be the most important factor.) I could see a push w/ JJ there OOP on the turn, but he just can't do it with a worse hand, even 2 pr. He has to have either the top set looking for the top boat OR the flush. Nut flush draw is also possibility from what we know about his previous action w/ TPTK. I am wondering more about JJ now that I go through all of this again. From his perspective, with your PF raise in position and then huge reraise on flop, it may look like you're the one w/ AA or KK, by the way.

No matter how it turned out, it was a damn tough spot. Good hand to review.