turn semi-bluff

[Pingviini]

villain is super passive PF but comes occasionally alive, especially on turn. given the read I put him on an overpair. set is possible too, so I have 12-15 outs.

***** Hand History for Game 4001079418 *****
$400 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, April 16, 21:11:13 ET 2006
Table Oceans Ten (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: leviathan122 ( $346.74 )
Seat 2: glanatpar ( $537.90 )
Seat 3: gedels ( $427.86 )
Seat 4: enyoj ( $374 )
Seat 6: bosko1111 ( $1196.05 )
Seat 5: PingZen ( $418 )
glanatpar posts small blind [$2].
gedels posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PingZen [ 8d 9d ]
enyoj folds.
PingZen raises [$16].
bosko1111 folds.
leviathan122 folds.
glanatpar calls [$14].
gedels folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6d, 8c, Td ]
glanatpar checks.
PingZen bets [$26].
glanatpar raises [$72].
PingZen calls [$46].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ah ]
glanatpar bets [$144].
PingZen is all-In.

[aislephive]

It's borderline at best getting your stack in there with little fold equity with only one card to come. You could also three bet this flop and if he pushes then you have to call, but if he calls and checks the turn you can check behind and peel off one of your outs, none of which he can put you on.

[Miffed22001]

push the flop?

[gabe]

i always push that flop after he minraises

[Pingviini]

what min-raise? its about 3x my raise..

I normally 3-bet, perhaps, AI here, but he had been quite passive and I wasnt sure if he would be able to lay down jacks or similar here. On turn I felt that he would be able to lay down that flop overpair because of the A.

[gabe]

i dont know why i typed 'minraise'

you dont really want him to fold jacks:
Board: Td 6d 8c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 54.9495 % 54.95% 00.00% { 9d8d }
Hand 2: 45.0505 % 45.05% 00.00% { JJ }

and of course he is folding sometimes, so you have a big edge by pushing

[Pingviini]

I really do want him to fold jacks if I push. I suck at EV calculations but I am pretty sure that the dead money in the pot makes up the 10% edge in equity. Honestly, I didnt think that my edge was that big when I was playing, 9's, 8's, 7's, diamonds = 17 outs? ugh.. gotta agree with pushing on the flop. I still like my turn AI, most ABC players fold there w/o the A.

[Miffed22001]

I really do want him to fold jacks if I push. I suck at EV calculations but I am pretty sure that the dead money in the pot makes up the 10% edge in equity. Honestly, I didnt think that my edge was that big when I was playing, 9's, 8's, 7's, diamonds = 17 outs? ugh.. gotta agree with pushing on the flop. I still like my turn AI, most ABC players fold there w/o the A.

would you call the flop bet with only overs?

[Pingviini]

no but I might call with AT. I really have to give more thought about making my 3-betting range wider using pressure points in order to give my opponents hard time.

[Renton]

Stacks aren't deep enough for him to fold to your turn bet with any reasonable holding. So thats really more of a value raise than a semibluff.

[Pingviini]

value bets/raises are supposed to be done with better hands and semi-bluffs are "hands that are not best at the moment but they have a chance of improving to the best hand".

I really thought he had an overpair and that he was afraid of the turn A, although his turn bet was really strong and I wasnt sure if he actually had a set here.

[Renton]

value bets/raises are supposed to be done with better hands and semi-bluffs are "hands that are not best at the moment but they have a chance of improving to the best hand".

semantics.

What I mean to say was "bad" value raise. I think this raise would have been better if you DID have a better hand. The only thing that makes a semibluff profitable is the additional chance that you will get a fold, on top of the decent amount of pot equity you have in the hand. Villain stuck half his stack in the middle and you raised him what he had left. You put him on an overpair as the worst possible holding he could have. Would you fold an over pair in his spot, with over half your stack in the middle? I doubt it.

I hope I am not sounding snooty. I don't even play nearly these stakes. I just like applying what I read in books

[Pingviini]

my intention was to make him fold and in my mind it really wasnt a value raise. I didnt think for a second that I had a better hand but I thought that my equity was closer to 25% here. Still not enough considering that my FE here isnt big enough. Without any calculations I think that he has to fold about 35-40% here to make this AI +EV for me. Flop AI is better here for sure. Nonetheless, I would fold JJ et co pretty quickly..

I dont think that there are any books considering SH NL ring play I have only been able to find a couple of decent articles on teh intertron, that's all. nice to get some discussion, I just think that semantics are important that we dont start mixing things up too much when we are having tough discussions.

[zenbitz]

When he leads the turn for 144, I don't think he is folding here or on the river. With anything that he raises flop and leads turn.

If the turn card is anything but an A, (and not a gin card for you), I think this move is much better since, he will probably call with AdXd and all your outs are belong to him. Luckily you're ahead...

I think just call and see the river. You have position.

[dalecooper]

Push the flop, call the turn - you reversed it. With a pair, a gutshot, and a flush draw there's not many hands I am afraid of.