KK Hand

[Zodiac Killer]

A little history; desertrat17 has his chips by being an aggressive donk, on a hand prior to this I was ths sB and I flopped a straight. The turn completed a flush for the BB and and desertrat called his all in with just the Ah and hit his flush. I got away from my straight on the turn.

I knew my KK was good on the flop but should I have folded? I checked poker calc and I was a 51/49 dog after the flop. Is folding just an EV play here?

12th hand of a $20 MTT:

Hand #31101799-12 at Sat4pmB-021 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 15/Apr/06 16:11:04

pcdogg is at seat 0 with 1630.
desertrat17 is at seat 1 with 2510.
Dino88 is at seat 2 with 1705.
JackylWR is at seat 3 with 1280.
dragon2524 is at seat 4 with 700.
heincker1 is at seat 5 with 2675.
The button is at seat 3.

dragon2524 posts the small blind of 5.
heincker1 posts the big blind of 10.

pcdogg: -- --
desertrat17: -- --
Dino88: -- --
JackylWR: Ks Kh
dragon2524: -- --
heincker1: -- --

Pre-flop:

pcdogg folds. desertrat17 raises to 70. Dino88
folds. JackylWR re-raises to 225. dragon2524 folds.
heincker1 folds. desertrat17 calls.

Flop (board: 7s 6h 8h):

desertrat17 goes all-in for 2285. JackylWR goes
all-in for 1055. desertrat17 is returned 1230
(uncalled).

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

desertrat17 shows Ah Th.
JackylWR shows Ks Kh.


Turn (board: 7s 6h 8h Kc):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 7s 6h 8h Kc Jh):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

desertrat17 has Ah Th 6h 8h Jh: flush, ace high.
JackylWR has Ks Kh 8h Kc Jh: three kings.


Hand #31101799-12 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
desertrat17 wins 2575 with flush, ace high.

What is your play?

[jackvance]

I think you just struck out here on a correct call. He had 9 outs on his flush and 3 more on his A, so 12 outs= 52%. Without the A overcard to your K (which you couldn't have known) this woulda been 9 outs=40%. You have to call 1000 into a 2500 pot or 40%. I woulda called too, but if I check the numbers probably best to fold.

[piratepeaty]

I think you just struck out here on a correct call. He had 9 outs on his flush and 3 more on his A, so 12 outs= 52%. Without the A overcard to your K (which you couldn't have known) this woulda been 9 outs=40%. You have to call 1000 into a 2500 pot or 40%. I woulda called too, but if I check the numbers probably best to fold.

How could it be best to fold when you are about even money and there is already 500 in the pot? If he played his cards face up, it's +chipEV.

However getting +chipEV really isn't what tournaments are about. Sometimes it is correct to take a -chipEV play in a tournament to improve your chances of winning more actual money from the tournament. Sometimes the opposite is true. For that reason, I'm not going to comment on the call. It depends on your overall tournament strategy.

[jackvance]

Well, my reasoning is that he wasn't in the position to put his stack on cointoss-like bets yet.. so he has to invest 40% for a 60% to win (vs flush draw with no overcard) or for 52% to win (vs a flush draw with an overcard)..

[Pelion]

Also if hes an over aggressive fool (as he sounds) this could easily be 99/tt/JJ (probably not QQ as he might push preflop) or even A8.

I probably call against this guy. Youve already put in 1/6th of your stack and you are probably well ahead on that flop. If you fold it you run the risk of inviting people to bully you later.

[nutsinho]

12 outs does not make him the favorite. Check math

[Miffed22001]

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kh 463 46.77 509 51.41 18 1.82 0.477
Ah Th 509 51.41 463 46.77 18 1.82 0.523

The guy is a dick, and has shown he'll make horrible calls. Id be sure i was flipping here, possibly at a 5% deficit but id still call all day everyday in this scenario.

[nutsinho]

Well yeah, his 15 outs do make him the favorite...
jack didn't mention his straight outs and i failed to check the OP...my bad