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 Originally Posted by Renton
This player is highly capable of folding AA to an apparent set, particularly if big cards fall on the turn or river. I decided to make my move while the board was innocuous. I think a set is least apparent with the move I made.
What if I bet, he raises, and I reraise all-in? I think there's a greater chance he folds that than he folds to an open push. He would probably figure I would just flat call a his raise with KK or QQ. What if a K or a Q falls on the turn (assuming I flat call the raise)? Then my action could be killed.
This is certainly not my standard play with a set against a probable AA. I figured it would work against this particular opponent. He is someone I have played against before who is very aggressive, doesn't like to be bluffed or pushed around, and thinks hes better than me (he probably is).
What are you expecting him to put you on if not a set? How often does he fold KK here expecting AA? Does he think you're capable of making that play with QQ or worse?
If you bet the pot ($25ish) and he min raises to $50, then there's already too much in the pot for him to let it go whether you call or raise. So far he's only commited $12 to the pot and he needs to be ahead more times than he can assume he actually is to make the all in call, especially assuming he has AA 50% of the time and KK 50% of the time. This is totally discounting he might actually have AK and this hand is going nowhere or QQ and he's not risking seeing your AA/KK.
Him being a very aggressive player that doesn't like to be pushed around only makes the case for a pot bet stronger if you ask me, you can be certain of the reraise.
I'm not saying the all-in wont work sometimes, I just think the pot size bet gets all his money in the pot more often. The one advantage I can think of is maybe if you're planning to make the same play against him every time you have a hand, but seems a shame to potentially waste that hand for that.
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