QQ semi-dangerous flop

[Pingviini]

In his eyes I am borderline maniac/LAGG. His image is kind of solid, I think he has done something silly, I just cant remember what it was..

Hand #277922979 at table: Table TH 363a
Started: Tue Apr 25 17:20:38 2006

gaveboden is at seat 1 with 91.02
Deucetres is at seat 2 with 378.70
kl236 is at seat 3 with 0.00
PingZen is at seat 4 with 504.20
fiera2 is at seat 5 with 559.86

fiera2 posts the large blind 4.00
PingZen posts the small blind 2.00

PingZen: Qs, Qh
fiera2: --, --
gaveboden: --, --
Deucetres: --, --

Pre-flop:

gaveboden: Call 4.00
Deucetres: Fold
PingZen: Raise 16.00
fiera2: Call 16.00
gaveboden: Call 16.00

Flop (Board: 9s, 6s, 9h):

PingZen: Bet 36.00
fiera2: Raise 72.00
gaveboden: Fold
PingZen: ??

[r8ed]

3bet. It's unlikely he has a 9 or 66 since I would think he would smooth-call the flop knowing "the maniac" will lead the turn. He may have a flush draw. If he thinks you are loose and you 3bet, I can't see him calling or reraising without the boat or a high PP. You are more likely to have the boat or trips here.

[UG]

Depends on my read of the guy while I'm at the table, but I'm generally 3-betting that flop. Looks like a flush draw or a pocket-pair that is most likely lower than yours. JJ and TT would play it the same way, maybe 78?.

[xX zorrito Xx]

i'd call...

[alias2211]

another vote for 3bet. given your perception of your image, that is pretty much a great flop for you because shitting his pants trying to figure out if you have a 9, 87s or 66. and since you're as likely to 3bet w/ those holdings as you are w/ an overpair, i say 3bet. he won't call/raise the 3 bet w/o the goods. also, going into call/checkdown mode isn't going to induce any bluffs from a solid, so that is -EV.

[gabe]

3 bet is the worst possible idea

he has position on you and if he has a 9 he is just going to call, and leave you on a bad spot on the turn.

i like calling and then leading half pot on the turn, fold to another raise.

[dalecooper]

3 bet is the worst possible idea

he has position on you and if he has a 9 he is just going to call, and leave you on a bad spot on the turn.

Why would he do that? He flops a semi-monster against someone he thinks is a LAgg, he min-raises IN POSITION... and then he's going to smooth call a re-raise? On a board with flush and straight draws possible? No way. If he has a 9, he absolutely puts in the 4th raise on that flop, and it will probably be pretty good-sized.

[gabe]

3 bet is the worst possible idea

he has position on you and if he has a 9 he is just going to call, and leave you on a bad spot on the turn.

Why would he do that? He flops a semi-monster against someone he thinks is a LAgg, he min-raises IN POSITION... and then he's going to smooth call a re-raise? On a board with flush and straight draws possible? No way. If he has a 9, he absolutely puts in the 4th raise on that flop, and it will probably be pretty good-sized.

he doesn't have to put in a 4th raise to protect from draws, he can rule those out if ping puts in another raise.

i think in general, reraising out of position is only a good idea when you know you are ahead. in this spot he can't be sure, so its not the most +EV thing he can do.

[r8ed]

I was thinking shut down if he calls as that would indicate you are beat. He could throw the call-lead line back in your face just as easily as I'm sure he's seen this frequently enough. Plus he could catch his hand if he didn't already. Hero only has two outs if he wants to show down. Whereas any Ace or King or spade would put Hero in a tougher situation.

[dalecooper]

i think in general, reraising out of position is only a good idea when you know you are ahead. in this spot he can't be sure, so its not the most +EV thing he can do.

You may be right, I haven't given this part of it much thought yet. But I do think if our hero re-raises on the flop, most opponents with a bare 9 (and not a made FH) are putting in the fourth raise. Even if the villain correctly puts the hero on an overpair, and realizes then that he's drawing very thin to improve, he will still look at this as an opportunity to take a big bite out of a LAgg who certainly won't stand for any counter-aggression. I know when I flop a monster against anyone who's betting and raising a lot (esp. post-flop) I play it pretty hard and fast. And I seldom let them put in the last bet on any street, because they view most raises as challenges to their manhood, and will usually call or re-raise. In this case, assume that Ping's feeling is right ("he thinks I'm a borderline maniac") and that the villain is aware that Ping probably has an overpair to the board - why would he ever want to slow down the betting when he can probably get a huge amount right on the flop?

To look at it from a multi-level thinking perspective, villain thinks Ping is a borderline-maniac, and maybe he is aware that Ping himself is aware of his own table image. So this becomes a game where the villain is actually repping a weak pocket pair (something like 88, TT, or JJ) when what he actually has is a nine. Without saying so, he could be playing a little game: "My min-raise was a test to see if my middle pair was good on this harmless-looking flop. You re-raised me, but you're a maniac, so I still think I'm good. Therefore I'm going to raise yet again to get you to fold." That's the message he's trying to send - get a thinking but super-aggressive player to shove all in with his overpair. And the quicker the better. If he smooth calls a re-raise on the flop, he has to know that Ping might go into check-calldown mode, and that's not the best outcome for his hand when he had a decent chance of getting a lot more money in on the flop.

[alias2211]

i think in general, reraising out of position is only a good idea when you know you are ahead. in this spot he can't be sure, so its not the most +EV thing he can do.

yes, agreed as a general principle. but here, ping is LAGG maniac against solid. if ping thinks he can win the pot, his opportunity to do it is a 3 bet on the flop. the board will continue to get worse for ping as more cards come (whatever they are, really). additionally, if ping's maniacal behavior has done it's job, he could also get a bad call from a worse hand, if the solid is desparately looking for a chance to 'pop him back' in retribution for previous transgressions. he won't get the same bad, desparate call from 10 10 or JJ if another flush or straight card comes on the turn or river, he might not even get a value bet called at that point (check/fold for villain).

[Pingviini]

I dont generally like 3-betting here but I didnt like calling either. Gabe's advice of calling and leading for 1/2 pot and folding to a re-raise sounds the best here. Anyways I figured this would be a good place to do that given my image and the lack of position so I made it 200 to call. he thought for a while and called.

Turn is
Pingzen: ???

[dalecooper]

It's a scare card but it's hard to put him on a flush draw. Not saying he couldn't have it, but his play seems much more in line with a pocket pair. Personally I'd go into check-calldown mode at the appearance of that card, and hope he doesn't make it too expensive - and also hope for a somewhat-clarifying As or Ks - or one of your two queens - on the river.

[UG]

Pingzen: pulls the plug on his internet connection to get the cheapest possible showdown?


Seriously, you are fuxxored on this one me thinks.

I'm still thinking that JJ/TT plays it the same way, though...

[r8ed]

Check/fold. You are toast.
Here is something to think about:
3bet method: Hero commits $216 and show massive strength and knows where he stands. No way this guy is calling without trips or better. At worst he has AKs.

call-lead method: Hero commits $198 and still leaves room for Villain to improve and possibly make a move if he chooses. Plus, now Hero may be enticed into proceeding since he has a flush draw if villain just calls and then value bets the river.

I don't think either is terrible, but that's the original reason I 3bet in this specific case.

[UG]

3bet method: Hero commits $216 and show massive strength and knows where he stands. No way this guy is calling without trips or better. At worst he has AKs.

call-lead method: Hero commits $198 and still leaves room for Villain to improve and possibly make a move if he chooses. Plus, now Hero may be enticed into proceeding since he has a flush draw if villain just calls and then value bets the river.

This is what I was thinking.....Gabe, anyone else, why is this thinking so wrong?

[ilikeaces86]

call lead turn or check turn and re-evaluate.

[aislephive]

I think calling his raise and then checkraising the turn is good, as is leading the turn.

[SmackinYaUp]

i am in the call and re-eval turn. camp. 3betting is going to pretty much let opponent play the hand perfectly.

[Pingviini]

We are already at the point where hero has 3-bet to 200, villain calls, turn is 4 of spades. Now what does hero do except re-evaluates?

[alias2211]

We are already at the point where hero has 3-bet to 200, villain calls, turn is 4 of spades. Now what does hero do except re-evaluates?

ROFLCPt3rrrBBQ. even the 4s should give you ample reason to stop putting in chips. paired board, flush on board, QQ is not getting value from betting here. it beats approximately 10,10 and JJ. check/fold. not many other cards would drop to make you do much differently. if you were going to get him off hand, it was there. so stop putting in more chips here.

btw, this is the best thread in awhile. thanks to everyone who posted. there is a lot of great content here.

[gabe]

i would probably push here. villian thinks you are maniac, he might call with A6 or some other pocket pair. you have the Qs, maybe you can suckout with it.

[Pingviini]

The problem with pushing is that my 3-bet pretty much defined both of our hands. He can be pretty sure that I have a highish PP, and his hand is pretty much defined as trips.

some thoughts about different lines:
3-betting on the flop: gains information, not sure if I raised enough to chase out flush draws but most of the worse hands should be gone.

calling on the flop:
and then betting on non-spade turn and folding to a raise isnt bad, I would try to control the size of the pot so that it wont get too big, 1/2 the pot should be fine, if he just calls I am doing c/c line unless he seems to like his hand very much. if a falls I might just go for c/c on turn since I most likely have 10 outs and I might have the best hand, CR seems like a horrible play here.

[Pingviini]

He bet about 2/3-3/4 of the pot and I folded.

[gabe]

i dont think 3 betting the flop gains information. you dont know if you are ahead of his flush draw or way behind his nine.

[alias2211]

hey ping can you write a summary post of what you think you would do next time in this situation? given all of the different options that were advocated here, i would like to hear from you what you took from this thread. several posts supported the 3bet, but both gabe and ilikeaces disagreed and suggest a call on flop, so i am curious to hear how you came down on it in the end. did you pick anything up here in terms of an adjustment to general approach in spots like this? doesn't happen much, but when it does, it's usually a big pot, so an active awareness of best approach is worth developing.

after a few rereads of the thread, i am moving back towards call/re-eval now. one statement from gabe that has really stuck w/ me, in particular, is:

he doesn't have to put in a 4th raise to protect from draws, he can rule those out if ping puts in another raise.

i think this is the most important concept here. 3bets in general are usually not from monsters, but rather, on-the-fence holdings like your QQ in this spot that are looking for definition and more information before the board gets any worse. draws just call, not 3bet, or maybe push w/ tons of outs. but 3bet not so much. at first i thought dalecooper's suggestion that a 9 auto 4bets here was correct, but now, i'm not so sure. if i were villain, i could see how just calling the 3bet here w/ any 9 would be an option against a 'maniac LAGG' such as yourself, even w/ the flush and straight possibilities (although, let's be clear about the str8, it's either 87 for the openended OR a gutshot which you can't get too worried about. if flop came 998 it might be a different story...)