100NL 6-Max Borderline Allin Call

[lambchopdc]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($55.50)
BB ($89.33)
Hero ($128.85)
MP ($149.67)
CO ($59.64)
Button ($243.61)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T, K. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, Button calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) T, 7, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $7, Button raises to $14, Hero raises to $35, Button calls $225.61 (All-In), Hero calls $89.85 (All-In).

Final Pot: $373.96

Villian is 18/6/2.4, standard TAG. I put him on no less than AA-QQ, TT, 77, AQs,AQ,KQs,KQ. Pokerstove has me as 44% vs. that range on the flop. I'm getting 1.85:1 to call here. The only way I see me losing money in the long run here is if he has a set 100% of the time, in which i would be about 30%. Thoughts?

EDIT: I've been playing my usual extremely aggressive style so I do think AQs, AQ, KQs, and KQ are possibilities here. Table has been extremely tight which is also why i'm raising KTs UTG here.

[dalecooper]

Without a very specific read on him it's hard to envision him doing this with KQ (note that you have the king of spades, too - a card that *might* give him some slight extra incentive to play this aggressively). I'd be tempted to take KQ out of his range. I think the call is OK but probably not far from break-even, EV-wise.

[gabe]

would he pay you off if you hit a flush on the turn? im not so sure reraising is best against this player after he called your raise preflop.

[lambchopdc]

would he pay you off if you hit a flush on the turn? im not so sure reraising is best against this player after he called your raise preflop.

I'm thinking AA, KK, AQ, KQ folds to a spade turn, although if the flush does hit I may get a check/raise in. Also, from what i've run into at 100nl, the flop minraise is pretty common by TAGs facing an aggressive preflop raiser. I do see how a call here might be appropriate with a strong draw. As played do u think this is still a call?

[dalecooper]

Getting almost 2:1 I don't see how you could fold it. You can't guarantee that he has a set. Even against a known set it's only slightly -EV at that point. If he turned his cards over (and this was a live game in which such a thing was possible) then you can fold.

[drmcboy]

fold pre flop

jk

I think it's must call as played. this post is similar - http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-34283.htm - I really think call or re raise is OK. the more likely you are to get paid when hit, the more you should call I think. Maybe it's a metagame question - will calling the gay flop raise save/make you more money in future hands (making him less likely to raise you with air), or will push get you paid more on big hands?