ATs flops big draw (190 BB deep).

[bdawg56kg]

Just switched over to party, so no stats on anyone. Villian seem liked a decent tag. He hasn't been getting out of line. What's your move here?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $195.90
Hero: $751.70
CO: $427.48
Button: $999.55
SB: $402
BB: $611.24

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A T
UTG folds, Hero raises to $15, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: J K T ($49, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $40, Button raises to $110, SB folds, Hero ???

[Fnord]

$300 and push the turn. GAMBLE!!!!!!

[outphase]

Agreed on the gamble, you have 1 out to the nut of nuts, 8 outs to the nut flush, 3 more outs to the broadway and sometimes another T is good enough for you

[bluey]

i had ATs last night and flopped almost had the same flop, mine there was a x not a 10. i bet the flop, got called and the magic card hit the turn and i actually got allin on it. amazing.

[Lukie]

I like fnord's line.

[andr3w321]

I call and see what the turn brings. It's pretty unlikely you're ahead right now and fnord's line is really only good if there is fold equity here which I doubt there is if he's willing to raise so large on a scary board like that. It's highly likely he's got at least 2 pair here. You should be able to get away from your hand still after a large turn bet by him if it brings a rag. Then again you can always GAMBOOOOL like fnord says, its really up to you and how much variance you're willing to deal with.

[dsaxton]

Call. I don't see any point in gambling.

With shorter stacks it'd probably be an all-in reraise, but I prefer playing cautiously with stacks that deep.

[bdawg56kg]

I call and see what the turn brings. It's pretty unlikely you're ahead right now and fnord's line is really only good if there is fold equity here which I doubt there is if he's willing to raise so large on a scary board like that. It's highly likely he's got at least 2 pair here.

Obviously I'm not ahead now, but I disagree with you when you say I have no fold equity. First off, his raise is not large (about 1/2 pot), and if I 3-bet I think he will lay down most 2-pair hands, all one-pair hands, and all semi-bluffs/air. This leaves only sets and straights, which I still have 35% equity at worse.

Edit: Also, I am a favorite over 2-pair here.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.016 secs 61,875 games/sec

Board: Ts Jc Kc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 54.8990 % 54.44% 00.45% { AcTc }
Hand 2: 45.1010 % 44.65% 00.45% { KdJd }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.8182 % 51.21% 00.61% { AcTc }
Hand 2: 48.1818 % 47.58% 00.61% { JdTd }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.6667 % 51.21% 00.45% { AcTc }
Hand 2: 48.3333 % 47.88% 00.45% { KdTd }

[bdawg56kg]

Call. I don't see any point in gambling.

With shorter stacks it'd probably be an all-in reraise, but I prefer playing cautiously with stacks that deep.

If I call, I will be out of position, so do you just c/f turn if you miss? Also, my draw is big, but most of its outs are pretty transparent making it less likely I will get paid off, which is more of an argument for 3-betting I think.

[johnny_fish]

You need to 3-bet because you're OOP at the turn and you have a decent amount of FE vs. opponent's (wide) raising range.

Tough hand though. You need to maximize FE and value simultaneously.

[Hartlin]

What if he is holding 1010 or JJ? KK isnt likely so cancel that out. AQ is also a likely holding as well.

[johnny_fish]

What if he is holding 1010 or JJ? KK isnt likely so cancel that out. AQ is also a likely holding as well.

There's no way you're getting away cheap vs. these hands without losing value vs. 2p/pair+draw.

[lolzzz_321]

I'd call and see where im at on the turn. I know if your draw hits, it's pretty transparent and your action may be dead. I remember when I would just push (overbet push pwnz) AI in an instant, but now I don't really like getting 200bb in at like 30-35% (it's pretty obvious he has TT, JJ, KK, AQ).

100BB gamb00l!1!11!!!

[dsaxton]

I'd also want to call so he doesn't have the option of reraising.

[bdawg56kg]

I'd also want to call so he doesn't have the option of reraising.

If I raise the flop to $350 and he pushes, I will be getting 3.5 : 1, making it an easy call. I think calling is a much better option if I have position on him.

[dsaxton]

I'd also want to call so he doesn't have the option of reraising.

If I raise the flop to $350 and he pushes, I will be getting 3.5 : 1, making it an easy call. I think calling is a much better option if I have position on him.

I'm not saying "you will be forced to fold." That's kind of the point. You're forced to take a big gamble by reraising. Why do you want to do this?

This is probably partially a matter of personal preference. I just like to try to avoid high volatility plays like this, even if it means sacrificing some profit.

[aislephive]

I'd call and see where im at on the turn. I know if your draw hits, it's pretty transparent and your action may be dead. I remember when I would just push (overbet push pwnz) AI in an instant, but now I don't really like getting 200bb in at like 30-35% (it's pretty obvious he has TT, JJ, KK, AQ).

100BB gamb00l!1!11!!!

I think two pair here or AQ is a lot more likely than a set. TT, JJ, and KK likely reraise preflop in this spot. Maybe not so much TT, but JJ and KK.

I think this hand is very very interesting, stacks are somewhat deep here, but I think that is more of a reason to reraise here. I think he lays down a hand like KT, TJ, and maybe even KJ here. If he has AQ then you have plenty of outs including 3 to split. If he has two pair here then you have any T, any A, any Q, or any club for the win. So I'm in favor of a reraise to say $350 and obviously call a push.

How did the hand unfold bdawg?

[bdawg56kg]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $195.90
Hero: $751.70
CO: $427.48
Button: $999.55
SB: $402
BB: $611.24

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A T
UTG folds, Hero raises to $15, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: J K T ($49, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $40, Button raises to $110, SB folds, Hero raises to $400, Button raises all-in $874.55, Hero calls all-in $336.7.
Uncalled bets: $247.85 returned to Button.

Turn: 6 ($1522.4, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $1522.4)


River: T ($1522.4, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $1522.4)


Results:
Final pot: $1522.4
Hero shows Ac Tc
Button shows Ad Qc

[lolzzz_321]

nice catch fish

[bdawg56kg]

nice catch fish

Heh, that's probably what he said in chat. I had it turned off at the time. :P

[andr3w321]

I think you are giving the villain too much respect in saying he is going to lay down 2 pair here. Its very possible he could put you on AK and take it all the way here. The reason I favor the just calling is because the gambool method forces you to put the rest of your stack in on the turn, in which case your odds of winning have gone way down if you don't hit something on the turn. If the turn brings say a 3d you are a 60/40 underdog against 2pair, and if it pairs the board you could be drawing near dead with the exception of the Qc. Also, when you say you're "ahead" here against 2pair, you are only a 55/45 favorite on the flop. So this is equivalent to saying pushing pockets into AK is +EV which everyone knows is untrue. As it stood you were 60/40 dog when you pushed on the flop, if the turn had brough a 3d you would be a 22/78 underdog.