Another boring question about folding pocket pairs preflop

[mcatdog]

100NL, aggressive, good multitabler with an $80 stack raises to $4 on the button. This player likes to play with a short stack for some unknown reason. I fold 44 in the small blind. Discuss

-how you plan to play it if you hit your set
-how you plan to play it if you miss your set and the board is all low cards

Do I actually have the implied odds to call this raise? I don't think so.

[yorib]

Don't you have about a 10-12% chance of hitting your set on the flop? That would mean if you think he's willing to bet another $40 on the hand you should call. I'd guess he's more likely to invest if he has a high PP.

I'm likely to bet out about half the pot if I hit, or if the flop is all low cards. If he reraises I call with the set and fold without one. Turn I bet 1/3-1/2 the pot with the set and push if he reraises. Likely c/f without the set.

Of course assuming that by the turn there was no card higher than J you could run the exact same with or without a set and expect the villian to fold.

[dalecooper]

If I flopped a set I'd probably check-call most flops and check-raise most turns, lead the river if it comes to that. If I flopped all low cards I'd check-raise the flop and lead the turn. Those are both "most of the time" lines - adjustments made for what the flop texture was like and what his aggression level was. This isn't a terrible fold by any stretch - I think a fold or call is pretty much neutral EV if you're a good player and he's at least aggressive enough to c-bet most of the time. It leans into positive EV if he can't fold overpairs and if he's a multiple-barrel-firer with his c-bets.

[Lukie]

If I flopped a set I'd probably check-call most flops and check-raise most turns, lead the river if it comes to that. If I flopped all low cards I'd check-raise the flop and lead the turn. Those are both "most of the time" lines - adjustments made for what the flop texture was like and what his aggression level was. This isn't a terrible fold by any stretch - I think a fold or call is pretty much neutral EV if you're a good player and he's at least aggressive enough to c-bet most of the time. It leans into positive EV if he can't fold overpairs and if he's a multiple-barrel-firer with his c-bets.

A fold is always neutral EV.

mcatdog, this is a really easy fold, regardless of what anyone tells you here.

[renegaderob1]

I think you do have implied odds for this.

If you hit the set and it is all low cards I check call. If a high card hits I bet near pot

If all low cards, lead out

If set comes with high cards, also lead/call then try a check raise or 3b (depends on size of pot)

I think a $40 pot is achievable here...

[bdawg56kg]

standard. if you feel like implied odds aren't there, then why bother calling for set value? his short stack makes this an even easier fold..

[mcatdog]

mcatdog, this is a really easy fold, regardless of what anyone tells you here.

It was an easy fold for me as well, but I wanted to see whether you guys agreed with me or not because I'd never really been in this situation before, because most good players buy in full. The more I think about it, I like a fold even if he had a full buy-in.

Most of the lines that have been posted in this thread are incredibly transparent and this guy is a decent enough player to see right through them. He's not going to randomly put $40 into the pot just because I want him to. Besides, he's raising a lot on the button and his hand probably won't be good enough to take any kind of post-flop heat anyway.

I think small pocket pairs are very overrated on this board and there are a lot of situations where people are losing money by playing them at all. Of course you call all day against a tight player who only raises with premium hands and doesn't know how to fold an overpair. And in multiway pots where your implied odds are probably huge. Heads up out of position against a good player, just get rid of them.

[Lukie]

Most of the lines that have been posted in this thread are incredibly transparent and this guy is a decent enough player to see right through them.

Many people around here either:
a) don't understand this
or
b) play in games where, regardless of how transparent their line is, people will still pay them off.

He's not going to randomly put $40 into the pot just because I want him to.

BUT YOU HAVE TO CALL $4 AND HE HAS AN $80 STACK. YOU HAVE 20:1 IN IMPLIED ODDS FOOL! AND YOU HIT 1 IN 8 TIMES!!

Besides, he's raising a lot on the button and his hand probably won't be good enough to take any kind of post-flop heat anyway.

a very good point, and if you start playing deuces in this situation for just it's pair value, this hand all of a sudden starts having really bad reverse implied odds in this spot.

I think small pocket pairs are very overrated on this board and there are a lot of situations where people are losing money by playing them at all. Of course you call all day against a tight player who only raises with premium hands and doesn't know how to fold an overpair. And in multiway pots where your implied odds are probably huge. Heads up out of position against a good player, just get rid of them.

ya.

[pgil]

or you could occassionally reraise him pf if he is raising enough from position. gives you a much better chance of taking down the pot on the flop (or pf) and gives you another way to win.

[Chicago_Kid]

100NL, aggressive, good multitabler with an $80 stack raises to $4 on the button. This player likes to play with a short stack for some unknown reason. I fold 44 in the small blind. Discuss

-how you plan to play it if you hit your set
-how you plan to play it if you miss your set and the board is all low cards

Do I actually have the implied odds to call this raise? I don't think so.

At first I was appalled that you imply this as an easy fold. But, I suppose against a solid player when you are OOP, you probably won't get your 8/1 or whatever you need to justify a call in addition to him actually having a big pair. Interesting logic, which I'll take under advisement.

NOW, what if the raiser was in MP and you had two callers including this shark? If I'm hijacking your thread, I apologize...

[renegaderob1]

b) play in games where, regardless of how transparent their line is, people will still pay them off.

[mcatdog]

NOW, what if the raiser was in MP and you had two callers including this shark? If I'm hijacking your thread, I apologize...

I can't hit the call button fast enough.