5.50 R&A Stars Million guaranteed satellite dilemna

[jdubs]

11 left, top 3 paid, top 2 get a seat, I am very short stacked at a 5 handed table..effective M of like 3.5- push or fold?

PokerStars Game #5016012120: Tournament #25059281, $5+$0 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2006/05/22 - 07:16:08 (ET)
Table '25059281 7' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: BJDarter (41025 in chips)
Seat 4: MBmas (53345 in chips)
Seat 6: johncoltrane (15426 in chips)
Seat 7: lionel555 (47228 in chips)
Seat 8: jcryan85 (64404 in chips)
BJDarter: posts the ante 75
MBmas: posts the ante 75
johncoltrane: posts the ante 75
lionel555: posts the ante 75
jcryan85: posts the ante 75
lionel555: posts small blind 600
jcryan85: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to johncoltrane [9h Jh]
BJDarter: folds
MBmas: folds
johncoltrane ??

[badandy519]

Any reads at all?? First hand at a new table, I might fold this, but I think 90% of the time I'm pushing here. If you have been there a couple of orbits and the table is anywhere near kinda tight, you should be good with a push here. You need to make the top 3 to get paid, so you have to gambool soon and double up twice, you might as well start here.

[biondino]

I make your M 7 here, unless I'm getting horribly confused. Also, there are no shorties and no clear chip leaders - they will all be severely disadvantaged if they call your push and lose. However, Jcryan in the BB is the big stack, and he is the danger man.

I think either is fine here. I *probably* fold, but I am a pussy.

[badandy519]

I make your M 7 here, unless I'm getting horribly confused. Also, there are no shorties and no clear chip leaders - they will all be severely disadvantaged if they call your push and lose. However, Jcryan in the BB is the big stack, and he is the danger man.

I think either is fine here. I *probably* fold, but I am a pussy.

This is exactly why a push is pretty good here... Jcryan doesn't want to come back to the middle of the pack on a mediocre hand. He's probably folding anything but AQ+ and 99+, so here doesn't have to worry about a loose call here. If he gets called, he's crushed anyhow whether he had AT, 88, or JT.

[Sprayed]

How soon until the blinds go up? If it's soon, push. If not I would fold and wait for the next hand. You are at an M of 7 so not too bad, but you are short handed and short stacked so you will need to make a move soon. Reads also play a part in your decision. If the blinds are loose callers chances are you are in a flip or worse. If you were below M of 4 I would definately push.

[chardrian]

I beleive jdubs is saying he has an EFFECTIVE M of 3.5 because the table is only 5 handed so the orbits are going to come even faster than normal.

Personally I think Harrington's strategy of decreasing your M when the table gets smaller is a load of crap - you still have 7 orbits before you are blinded out so your M is still 7.

However.... because you are only 5 handed, your hand values increase. So a hand like 9Js which basically is only played for implied odds at a full table, increases in value at a small table (the 9 or J will most likely win you the hand if it hits).

You are severely shortstacked so you absolutely are going to have to double up at least two more times just to have a chance at one of the seats. I push here.

[jdubs]

Yeah, I dont know if I agree with the effective M thing or not char ! If look at it as 7 I probably lean towards a fold, whereas the "effective" M of 3.5 makes me seem more desperate.. but even with a M of 7 at a 5 handed table J 9s seems pushable in this spot ( 2 folds to me), and I need chips. It was a tough spot man, in the heat of the moment I ended up insta pushing, and jcryan (who was on a very hot streak of cards) turns over AK and it held up. ce 'st la vie I guess......

[zarry]

This is not even a question... Push, this tournament is a winner take all system. Normally with that stack you would be trying to 1. double up, but also try and hold out as long as possible upping urself in paygrade. you have 2 to act in the blinds I would push this just about everytime just happens to be bad times that u ran into AK

[chardrian]

wasn't even that bad - the chance to double up as a 40/60 dog at this point is not as bad as it appears.