Can I trust Myself THIS much?

[Genitruc]

IMO Villain has to have a straight-up QQ or a hidden AA here. Thoughts?

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Game # 336611639 - Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 0,50/1,00 - Table "Abanilla"
Game ended 2006-05-24 06:50:50 GMT+01:00

Players:
bambagia (EUR 19,95 in seat 1)
let_mewin (EUR 122,15 in seat 2)
Ravageur2 (EUR 51,75 in seat 3)
smizmiat00 (EUR 101,80 in seat 4)
Fiskmister (EUR 47,35 in seat 5)
Henitruk4 (EUR 228,50 in seat 6)

Dealer: Henitruk4
Small Blind: bambagia (0,50)
Big Blind: let_mewin (1,00)

Henitruk4 was dealt: Kd - Kh

Ravageur2 Fold
smizmiat00 Fold
Fiskmister Fold
Henitruk4 Raise (3,50)
bambagia Fold
let_mewin Raise (10,00)
Henitruk4 Raise (45,00)
let_mewin Call (37,50)

Flop Qc (worst possible card I think... )- 6d - 3c

let_mewin Check
Henitruk4 Bet (40,00)
let_mewin All-In (73,65)
Henitruk4 Call (33,65)

Turn Qc - 6d - 3c - 4c
River Qc - 6d - 3c - 4c - 5d

With Villain's stack size I can't get away from the overpair. Or can I? I haven't seen anything donkish from him so far. He seems like a decent TAGG. I laid down JJ preflop to him a few hands ago (bad odds to hit set) and let him know... Unless he's brain-dead I am playing with my cards face-up.

[givememyleg]

Don't let him know you folded JJ.

This pot is huge preflop... almost 100 bbs. Geez it looks like he had QQ+ judging by the line he took here... But I dunno if I can check behind on that flop... the way it was played preflop seems like you're playing for stacks here. I'm not folding here. I honestly don't think there is anything wrong with your line... maybe someone else can give some input? You can't put him on 66 or 33 preflop.. but QQ or AA are definitely possible. I just don't know if checking behind on the flop is a good line to take.... so I think you played it fine.

[strawman]

I would think Aces would have put in one more raise preflop. So I think you are looking at QQ here other wise the c/r push doesn't make much sense since he would have to peg you for Kings or Aces preflop.

[bdawg56kg]

You played it fine. Folding to the all-in is absurd once you have put so much in the pot. You got 1/3 of his stack in preflop, so if he has QQ, then his call is very -EV, and if he has AA, you are going broke either way.

[Genitruc]

You played it fine. Folding to the all-in is absurd once you have put so much in the pot. You got 1/3 of his stack in preflop, so if he has QQ, then his call is very -EV, and if he has AA, you are going broke either way.

Yeah did quick calculation after hand and realized that if he had QQ it was horrible call unless he thought my range included JJ and AK. He would have needed like 200 (me as well) in the tank to give him long term set value on flop... Which is the other reason I suspected a hidden AA (which I am running into more and more deep-stacked it seems).
Edit : btw obv wasn't gonna fold to his push question was whether to check-call once Q came up... Which seems completely insane as well but the ***vomit*** feeling I got when the Q hit was telling me CHECK-CALL FISH CHECK-CALL... which would have accomlished nothing anyways since any betting at all was gonna get all his stack in... eww.

[strawman]

Yeah did quick calculation after hand and realized that if he had QQ it was horrible call unless he thought my range included JJ and AK.

Where would he get that idea?

I laid down JJ preflop to him a few hands ago (bad odds to hit set) and let him know...

Taking this into consideration maybe he does have Aces and thought you would fold to a reraise. I still put him on Queens though.

[Genitruc]

Yeah did quick calculation after hand and realized that if he had QQ it was horrible call unless he thought my range included JJ and AK.

Where would he get that idea?

I laid down JJ preflop to him a few hands ago (bad odds to hit set) and let him know...

Taking this into consideration maybe he does have Aces and thought you would fold to a reraise. I still put him on Queens though.

I laid down JJ after he came over the top of my reraise.

In this instance, I was coming over the top of his reraise. Don't see how it's relevant that he knows that I laid down JJ to his rereraise...

And I agree. Despite the bad odds for the set, it reeked hard of QQ to me.

[Werddown]

I think your flop bet was fine... you have to take a shot at it in case he has something like AKs or a smaller pocket pair like 10s or Js... Cant give him a free chance to hit a set or an ace.

Once he check-raises that flop its almost certain he has AA or QQ.

The pot is ~210... you have to call a 33,65 bet. Let's assume there is no possible way that you're ahead.

You're getting approximately 6.2 to 1 and have 2 outs of the remaining 47 cards that will allow you to make a set win the hand. You have no chance of a backdoor flush or straight. That means you need to be getting close to 22 to 1 pot odds to make this call, IF you're absolutely sure you are behind. You have no implied odds since he's already all-in with his bet.

Why do people usually say "You HAVE to call this bet because you've already invested so much!" ... I dont understand why if you're sure you're behind and you're not getting correct odds that you have to call the bet anyways. Why can't you fold? If you were unsure if you were behind or ahead then I can see why you would need to call, but in a situation like this, where theres almost zero chance you're ahead... Why do you have to call it? This is all assuming he's a solid player and knows what your preflop raises mean... If this was a random average player he could have a wider range and be making a really stupid play...

I dont see what hands he could possibly have that you'd be ahead of, especially with your read that you havent seen anything donkish from him so far.... AQ? I dont think AQ re-raises you and then just flat calls when you come back over the top of him, unless he's a really poor player.

Is the idea that you just call off the rest of your chips because you have a really small chance of sucking out? (a much smaller percentage than the amount of money youd have to invest compared to the amount you'd win if you hit)

Preflop was fine, and your flop bet was fine. I just dont think its neccessary to call for the rest of his stack once he makes that check raise.

I'd like to hear thoughts on this because it seems like the general consensus is that you have to call that last bet.. I'd like to hear some more in depth reasoning as to why its correct to make that last call for the extra 33,65 even when you know you're behind so that I can gain a better understanding.

[Genitruc]

I think your flop bet was fine... you have to take a shot at it in case he has something like AKs or a smaller pocket pair like 10s or Js... Cant give him a free chance to hit a set or an ace.

Once he check-raises that flop its almost certain he has AA or QQ.

The pot is ~210... you have to call a 33,65 bet. Let's assume there is no possible way that you're ahead.

You're getting approximately 6.2 to 1 and have 2 outs of the remaining 47 cards that will allow you to make a set win the hand. You have no chance of a backdoor flush or straight. That means you need to be getting close to 22 to 1 pot odds to make this call, IF you're absolutely sure you are behind. You have no implied odds since he's already all-in with his bet.

Why do people usually say "You HAVE to call this bet because you've already invested so much!" ... I dont understand why if you're sure you're behind and you're not getting correct odds that you have to call the bet anyways. Why can't you fold? If you were unsure if you were behind or ahead then I can see why you would need to call, but in a situation like this, where theres almost zero chance you're ahead... Why do you have to call it? This is all assuming he's a solid player and knows what your preflop raises mean... If this was a random average player he could have a wider range and be making a really stupid play...

I dont see what hands he could possibly have that you'd be ahead of, especially with your read that you havent seen anything donkish from him so far.... AQ? I dont think AQ re-raises you and then just flat calls when you come back over the top of him, unless he's a really poor player.

Is the idea that you just call off the rest of your chips because you have a really small chance of sucking out? (a much smaller percentage than the amount of money youd have to invest compared to the amount you'd win if you hit)

Preflop was fine, and your flop bet was fine. I just dont think its neccessary to call for the rest of his stack once he makes that check raise.

I'd like to hear thoughts on this because it seems like the general consensus is that you have to call that last bet.. I'd like to hear some more in depth reasoning as to why its correct to make that last call for the extra 33,65 even when you know you're behind so that I can gain a better understanding.

Agreed on everything. I can honestly say that I think it was a mistake to call his check-raise. IMO he is on JJ or AQ less than 10% of the time here (which would be needed plus my 8% equity with my 2-outer to justify call). Calling his bet was a mistake. Maybe not a huge one, but 33 BB mistake all the same.

[thnwkd]

I think your flop bet was fine... you have to take a shot at it in case he has something like AKs or a smaller pocket pair like 10s or Js... Cant give him a free chance to hit a set or an ace.

Once he check-raises that flop its almost certain he has AA or QQ.

The pot is ~210... you have to call a 33,65 bet. Let's assume there is no possible way that you're ahead.

You're getting approximately 6.2 to 1 and have 2 outs of the remaining 47 cards that will allow you to make a set win the hand. You have no chance of a backdoor flush or straight. That means you need to be getting close to 22 to 1 pot odds to make this call, IF you're absolutely sure you are behind. You have no implied odds since he's already all-in with his bet.

Why do people usually say "You HAVE to call this bet because you've already invested so much!" ... I dont understand why if you're sure you're behind and you're not getting correct odds that you have to call the bet anyways. Why can't you fold? If you were unsure if you were behind or ahead then I can see why you would need to call, but in a situation like this, where theres almost zero chance you're ahead... Why do you have to call it? This is all assuming he's a solid player and knows what your preflop raises mean... If this was a random average player he could have a wider range and be making a really stupid play...

I dont see what hands he could possibly have that you'd be ahead of, especially with your read that you havent seen anything donkish from him so far.... AQ? I dont think AQ re-raises you and then just flat calls when you come back over the top of him, unless he's a really poor player.

Is the idea that you just call off the rest of your chips because you have a really small chance of sucking out? (a much smaller percentage than the amount of money youd have to invest compared to the amount you'd win if you hit)

Preflop was fine, and your flop bet was fine. I just dont think its neccessary to call for the rest of his stack once he makes that check raise.

I'd like to hear thoughts on this because it seems like the general consensus is that you have to call that last bet.. I'd like to hear some more in depth reasoning as to why its correct to make that last call for the extra 33,65 even when you know you're behind so that I can gain a better understanding.

luv this post.

however i disagree with the flop bet. OP asks "can i trust myself?" well apparently not. You put him on QQ or AA, both of which you are behind on this flop, why bet? why not chk behind and take the chance to hit your set for free?
If you don't hit then you chk/call a smallish value bet on turn and fold to the push on river, which would've given you two streets to make your set and made it alot cheaper for you.
Instead you pot commit yourself on the flop then call saying you are pot committed do you see the problem here? really poor play imo... you might as well have pushed the flop which i'm sure you realize is -ev.

ps. someone suggested that AA would've 4bet. I disagree. I rarely 4bet AA simply because it tells them exactly what you have. I have comfortably folded KK to a 4bet from solid villian.

[samsonite2100]

Good stuff here.
In response to the title of this post, if you can't trust yourself here, you can't trust yourself anywhere. I'd be hard-pressed to think of any poker situation where you know to a greater degree of certainty you're a dog to win the hand. I've been in this exact situation twice--with KK when you know you're against AA or QQ PF and a Q hits on the flop--and gotten stacked twice. And resolved not to ever get stacked again in this spot. Check behind on flop, and don't spend any more $$ without improving.