Another weird bet.

[dsaxton]

Good or bad? Opponent unknown.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($187.75)
BB ($312.60)
UTG ($200)
MP ($53)
Hero ($197)
Button ($292.10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7, 7.
UTG calls $2, MP calls $2, Hero raises to $10, Button calls $10, 1 fold, BB calls $8, UTG calls $8, MP folds.

Flop: ($43) 2, 5, Q (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($43) 6 (4 players)
BB bets $10, UTG folds, Hero calls $10, Button folds.

River: ($63) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $30

[Silly String]

I don't like it. I think you mostly get called when you are beat and hands you beat fold. I don't mind the turn call, but river goes check, check here for me. Especially with that river Ace.

[gabe]

i like check and push much better

[dsaxton]

The common idea seems to be to check because my hand has "showdown value." My thinking was, whenever my hand is good enough to show down, I'm risking nothing by betting anyways, so I might as well bet and try to get him to fold a better hand.

Basically, by checking, I only win when my hand is good, but betting, I win whenever my hand is good, or when he folds J-J, T-T, 8-8, 9-9, etc.

[Fnord]

Am I crazy for thinking Daniel has the best hand here?

[gabe]

no, i think he shows the winner a good number of times, but i think pushing better than betting 30

[r8ed]

I like bet for the reasons you mention.

[dalecooper]

But he didn't mention the possibility that he bets and gets called by a better hand, and loses the extra bet. That's the flaw in that thinking. To me it really depends on the board, as in, how many better hands are in his range based on all previous action, that he would stand a reasonable chance of folding?

In this case, you're repping something like AK made on the river, and thereby trying to fold out hands like 77-TT; maybe also QJ or 44. I don't hate it on that level.

[Rondavu]

Check behind. 77 Good.

[dsaxton]

But he didn't mention the possibility that he bets and gets called by a better hand, and loses the extra bet.

Yeah, but after this action, I almost never get called by a better hand.

[SmackinYaUp]

no, i think he shows the winner a good number of times, but i think pushing better than betting 30

No way, that is such a huge overbet. Risking too much to win too little..its not a big pot and there is no need to push here.

[Rondavu]

no, i think he shows the winner a good number of times, but i think pushing better than betting 30

No way, that is such a huge overbet. Risking too much to win too little..its not a big pot and there is no need to push here.

Ya, but gabe wants to build his image in Dsaxton's pot.

[gabe]

no, i think he shows the winner a good number of times, but i think pushing better than betting 30

No way, that is such a huge overbet. Risking too much to win too little..its not a big pot and there is no need to push here.

yea, but it only gets called like 1% of the time.

[SmackinYaUp]

That is true, but if your sevens are good some of the time its not worth losing a stack the other times. I think there are better boards to bluff at where you can better represent a hand and while the one your actually holding has NO showdown value. In other words its a bad place for a bluff.

[dsaxton]

I think it's probably a question of how much "marginal equity" a bet has. That is, how much equity is added by getting him to fold the better hand, since my hand is already good a decent percentage of the time here.

If you were to assess the profitability of a bet like this, I think you would have to determine the probability that he holds a better hand, multiply this by the probability that he folds it and then multiply this number by the pot size. That would basically be what I expect to win by betting. That amount is probably too small for this bet to have positive expectation, since my hand is good so often, and yet too marginal for a worse hand to ever call.

I think you could probably generalize this for bluffing in general, except in the case of most bluffs, the probabily that your opponent is holding the best hand is much higher.

Thoughts?

[SmackinYaUp]

I think it's probably a question of how much "marginal equity" a bet has. That is, how much equity is added by getting him to fold the better hand, since my hand is already good a decent percentage of the time here.

If you were to assess the profitability of a bet like this, I think you would have to determine the probability that he holds a better hand, multiply this by the probability that he folds it and then multiply this number by the pot size. That would basically be what I expect to win by betting. That amount is probably too small for this bet to have positive expectation, since my hand is good so often, and yet too marginal for a worse hand to ever call.

I think you could probably generalize this for bluffing in general, except in the case of most bluffs, the probabily that your opponent is holding the best hand is much higher.

Thoughts?

Right on. I was thinking the exact same thing. If you can guesstimate a couple percentages on how often your good and how often he's calling and take into account the current size of the pot you probably would come up with a specific bet size if there was a bet at all. But its gonna be pretty difficult doing all of that in 15 seconds. Too much maff doh, I jus like to play mees some pokah.