Chances I am beat?

[EricE]

$100 table NL

Hand #317283346 at table: Table TH 510
Started: Wed May 31 20:11:48 2006

UTG+2 is at seat 1 with 50.25
MP1 is at seat 2 with 36.10
MP2 is at seat 3 with 112.30
Villian is at seat 4 with 27.70
CO is at seat 5 with 38.65
Button is at seat 6 with 77.85
Hero(SB) is at seat 7 with 98.50
BB is at seat 8 with 89.90
UTG is at seat 9 with 99.40
UTG+1 is at seat 10 with 108.27

BB posts the large blind 1.00
Hero(SB) posts the small blind 0.50

Hero(SB): 9s, 9d

Pre-flop:

UTG: Fold
UTG+1: Call 1.00
UTG+2: Fold
MP1: Fold
MP2: Fold
Villian: Call 1.00
CO: Raise 4.00
Button: Fold
Hero(SB): Call 4.00
BB: Fold
UTG+1: Call 4.00
Villian: Call 4.00

Flop (Board: , :Ac:, :Qd (Pot = $17):

Hero(SB): Check
UTG+1: Check
Villian: Bet 3.00

Fishy bet from villian here. I am thinking he missed. I call, I have showdown value.

CO: Call 3.00
Hero(SB): Call 3.00
UTG+1: Fold

Turn (Board: , :Ac:, :Qd:, :As (Pot = $26):

Hero(SB): Check
Villian: Bet 5.00

Another fishy bet given the board. At this point I doubt he has anything but I guess he could have a Q which is why I stayed passive. I likely should have raised him here but a call might induce a bluff on the river.

CO: Call 5.00
Hero(SB): Call 5.00

River (Board: , :Ac:, :Qd:, :As:, ) (Pot = $41):

Hero(SB): Check
Villian: All in for a bet of 15.70

This was an insta push. My thinking was that it was a desperation bluff but he may have a Q. What do you think the chances are that he has nothing and I am good here?

CO: Fold
Hero(SB): ?


How do you play it if you don't call down passive like I did? Who finds a fold?

[bair]

fold the flop.. 4-way raised pot with AAQ on the board...you are not ahead here very often

[yorib]

Chances you are beat? I'd say 90+%. His line absolutely screams Ax. Limp/call with a small open (suggesting he's either on a draw, or has an A and wants to cheaply find out if the CO has AK/AQ/QQ). On the Turn he gets a little more aggressive, but still giving the CO a chance to push him out of the hand. If he was just on a draw, he'd have checked the turn hoping for a free river/cheap showdown.

I'd say the river gave him a FH and he pushed (he's willing to lose FH over FH). That must me he flipped Ad 3d

Me? I'd fold on the flop because I'd figure the CO has me beat (with, at a minimum, a higher pocker pair) and with 3 other people in the pot someone has an A or Q.

[Warpe]

what bair said

[Galapogos]

Beat like a redheaded stepchild.

[EricE]

Ok, I was trying to figure out if I was making a play that had merit or if it was just a lucky guess.

Hero(SB): Call 15.70

Showdown:

Villian shows: 10c, Jc (a pair of Aces)
Hero(SB) shows: 9s, 9d (two pair, Aces and Nines)

Mainpot:
Hero(SB) wins the pot of 69.40 with two pair, Aces and Nines

(3.00 rake were taken for this hand)


I was playing good last night and getting paid for it. I felt on the top of my game. Now I have to decide if it was a good read or a fishy play. I have played against villain a fair amount but nothing really stands out other than (like I said) the bets were so small as to be fishy. I guess I have to conclude that I got lucky and I shouldn’t try it again.

Thanks for your replies.

[bair]

just because bets are fishy doesnt mean he has a bad hand, it just means he isnt very good

[zook]

just because bets are fishy doesnt mean he has a bad hand, it just means he isnt very good

I think he meant fishy as in suspicious, not that he bet like a fish. If he's played with him a lot and his bets were undersized compared to how he bets good hands, then that's a read and possibly worth going with. It would have to be a damn good read in this case though. I would fold the flop.

[EricE]

just because bets are fishy doesnt mean he has a bad hand, it just means he isnt very good

I think he meant fishy as in suspicious, not that he bet like a fish. If he's played with him a lot and his bets were undersized compared to how he bets good hands, then that's a read and possibly worth going with. It would have to be a damn good read in this case though. I would fold the flop.

Exactly that is what I meant. The flop bet is 17% of the pot. The turn bet is 19% of the pot. The river bet looks like a bluff.

[Pelion]

sometimes when you know a player you just have to go with your gut. Just because you cant put your finger on it doesnt mean it isnt a read.

You know the player and it seemed like a suspicious bet. The worst that would have happened is you find out what it means.

[yorib]

Good call.

[givememyleg]

I think I would describe this more as "the wrong call at the right time." I think you would be beat here a lot more than ahead...

[EricE]

Yeah. I posted it to see if other people "saw" something there worth calling. Since that is not the case then I'll keep my calls like this extreamly rare, like they are.