53o in blind war.

[Renton]

This hand generated some decent discussion in XXX, so I thought I would post it and get your thoughts.

Villain is tight and somewhat passive.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($480.40)
UTG ($157.55)
UTG+1 ($409.13)
MP1 ($399.70)
MP2 ($88)
CO ($431)
Button ($93.65)
SB ($854)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 3. SB posts a blind of $2.
6 folds, SB (poster) raises to $12, Hero calls $10.

Flop: ($28) 8, 3, 9 (2 players)
SB bets $15, Hero calls $15.

Turn: ($58) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $33, Hero raises to $125, SB calls $92.

River: ($308) Q (2 players)
SB bets $103.43, Hero calls $103.43.

Final Pot: $514.86

[Miffed22001]

the first hand i think that comes to mind he would call that turn raise with would be JTs, oesd and flush draw.

But opp bets turn oop after you called flop so i guess he has something made, 89 maybe JJ/TT?

I still think id raise here.

[Renton]

Why can't he have AA/KK/QQ?

[Miffed22001]

Why can't he have AA/KK/QQ?

Its quite possible he does, but then hes folding to a raise on the river anyway after the blocking bet.
I think id raise ehre anyway to get away with a river bluff raise with missed JTo or an oesd that made it to a flush draw on the turn and still missed.(76s even 75s or something like that)

Also, if we show him the river raise with air vs his showdown blocking bet we encourage a heroic overcall here when he has AA and we have a set or top two pair.

[Rondavu]

I think hero is ahead here. Villain wants a showdown on river. He's value betting the made board without the made hand to keep hero honest. Hero should call, because he's likely ahead anyway, and if he isn't villain will call a push with 2-pair, since JT is out of hero's range a bit.

[Renton]

I think hero is ahead here. Villain wants a showdown on river. He's value betting the made board without the made hand to keep hero honest. Hero should call, because he's likely ahead anyway, and if he isn't villain will call a push with 2-pair, since JT is out of hero's range a bit.

so you agree that a push is bad?

[samsonite2100]

Yeah, I don't think overpairs generally call a push here, and we're behind almost every other plausible made hand, so calling here is good.

[Miffed22001]

I think hero is ahead here. Villain wants a showdown on river. He's value betting the made board without the made hand to keep hero honest. Hero should call, because he's likely ahead anyway, and if he isn't villain will call a push with 2-pair, since JT is out of hero's range a bit.

hero isnt likely to call here with JT HU preflop?

[Renton]

Yeah, I don't think overpairs generally call a push here,

I think AA and KK will call a push here.

[Miffed22001]

Yeah, I don't think overpairs generally call a push here,

I think AA and KK will call a push here.

If you think that then does the turn play make sense?
Why would opp call the raise oop and then block bet into a relativly safe river which commits him to calling your push because the pot odds are so sweet. He commits half his stack blocking the river and cant really fold when you push getting something better than 3:1 ?

[Rondavu]

The more I think about it, the more I'm falling in love with a river push.

[Miffed22001]

The more I think about it, the more I'm falling in love with a river push.

I know the results of this and thats still what i think.

[samsonite2100]

Dunno, it seems to me if we push we're basically hoping villain has AA/KK or maybe (unlikely) AQs, no? Those are the only hands we beat that might call a river push--and really I think AA/KK folds to a push quite often, esp. if he's tight-passive.

OTOH, villain's line is totally consistent with any number of higher two pairs or (less likely) slowplayed sets and also 67. I really don't see how a river push is +EV here.

[Miffed22001]

Dunno, it seems to me if we push we're basically hoping villain has AA/KK or maybe (unlikely) AQs, no? Those are the only hands we beat that might call a river push--and really I think AA/KK folds to a push quite often, esp. if he's tight-passive.

OTOH, villain's line is totally consistent with any number of higher two pairs or (less likely) slowplayed sets and also 67. I really don't see how a river push is +EV here.

once AA/KK or any over pair for that matter calls the turn they are committed imo to any blank looking river. Opp cant bet 1/3 blocking bet then fold to the push for sweet pot odds with AA, that would be dumb.
So if opp calls turn hes not folding, even to a push.

[samsonite2100]

Dunno, it seems to me if we push we're basically hoping villain has AA/KK or maybe (unlikely) AQs, no? Those are the only hands we beat that might call a river push--and really I think AA/KK folds to a push quite often, esp. if he's tight-passive.

OTOH, villain's line is totally consistent with any number of higher two pairs or (less likely) slowplayed sets and also 67. I really don't see how a river push is +EV here.

once AA/KK or any over pair for that matter calls the turn they are committed imo to any blank looking river. Opp cant bet 1/3 blocking bet then fold to the push for sweet pot odds with AA, that would be dumb.
So if opp calls turn hes not folding, even to a push.

We're only talking about AA/KK here, no? Are you saying TT has to call, too?

At any rate, yes villain would be getting 3:1 on Hero's river push, but I still think a lot of villains fold there. Especially ones described as tight/passive in Renton's OP.

[Renton]

Dunno, it seems to me if we push we're basically hoping villain has AA/KK or maybe (unlikely) AQs, no? Those are the only hands we beat that might call a river push--and really I think AA/KK folds to a push quite often, esp. if he's tight-passive.

OTOH, villain's line is totally consistent with any number of higher two pairs or (less likely) slowplayed sets and also 67. I really don't see how a river push is +EV here.

once AA/KK or any over pair for that matter calls the turn they are committed imo to any blank looking river. Opp cant bet 1/3 blocking bet then fold to the push for sweet pot odds with AA, that would be dumb.
So if opp calls turn hes not folding, even to a push.

We're only talking about AA/KK here, no? Are you saying TT has to call, too?

At any rate, yes villain would be getting 3:1 on Hero's river push, but I still think a lot of villains fold there. Especially ones described as tight/passive in Renton's OP.

i said he was tight passive not weak-tight passive. He's not nearly good enough to let go of AA getting 3:1.

[samsonite2100]

The pot odds seem somewhat irrelevant to me here--put yourself in villain's place. Let's say you have KK. After being smooth-called, raised, and then having your block bet pushed over, what can you possibly think you're beating besides a pure bluff? It's not enough of a drawing board for Hero to be on a busted draw. There are really no hands you beat that play it this way besides air. AA is only slightly better in that you do beat KK. Pot odds be damned, if I'm villain I'd be hard pressed to think I'm against air ~%25 of the time.

For a river push to be neutral to +EV, AA/KK has to pay off almost all the time to make up for the extremely wide range of better made hands that Hero's pushing into. For the reasons listed above, I don't think an even somewhat thinking villain would do so.