AA looks good, how much on river?

[benny999]

No reads, but typical player here is loose passive. I've been thinking I'm overbetting overpairs when I think their good on the river like this hand. How much do you bet the river (if you do)?

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Button: $109.10
SB: $108.90
hero: $112

Pre-flop: (3 players) hero is BB with A A
Button folds, SB calls, hero raises to $3, SB calls.

Flop: 8 5 T ($6, 2 players)
SB checks, hero bets $6, SB calls.

Turn: 7 ($18, 2 players)
SB checks, hero bets $18, SB calls.

River: 3 ($54, 2 players)
SB checks, hero bets $??? (around 82 left)

[andy-akb]

I like the line you are taking, but your PFR really messed it up. Had you made a standard raise to $4 then the flop put would be $8, turn would be $24 and river would be $72 and a push would be less awkward. As played I may simply bet something like 25-30 and hope for a call, a push here is going to scare away a lot of hands.

[Robert]

I bet something like $28 here - and fold to a raise, because there's a lot of hands out there that beats us (although he's probably not checkraising but leading with twopair or better).

[bode]

i think a $25 is good here. i think worse hands call this some, but only a better hand is calling a push, so youre losing value

[benny999]

I pushed and villain folded from timing out. I had the feeling he thought I was bluffing and was confident he had one pair, and sometimes when I overbet they think I'm bluffing even more, but you guys are right, even the call stations aren't calling that with a worse hand to a big bet like that often enough. ~1/2 pot probably will work out better.

I like the line you are taking, but your PFR really messed it up. Had you made a standard raise to $4 then the flop put would be $8, turn would be $24 and river would be $72 and a push would be less awkward. As played I may simply bet something like 25-30 and hope for a call, a push here is going to scare away a lot of hands.

Good point..hadn't thought of that side effect to raising pot sized (ie to $3 in blind vs blind) vs overbetting (ie to $4). Lately I've been thinking overbetting is less ev, since they fold the same hands regardless...but against unaware call station types it's prob better raise the premiums more to jump start the pot early, as long as I'm not doing that vs aware opps. Or if they're the loose pre flop and weak post flop type, I should just overbet the pot for everything pre flop, like I read in a post here from theory and practice.