65s Blind Steal

[elipsesjeff]

Villain is 33/7 preflop, folds 67% of SB to steals through my limited sample.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($225.90)
MP ($198)
Hero ($199)
SB ($321.20)
BB ($388.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, 6. SB posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, SB (poster) raises to $20, 1 fold, Hero calls $13.

Flop: ($44) 4, 6, 2 (2 players)
SB bets $25, Hero...

Preflop good?

What to do on Flop? If I had the flush you know its an obv raise, but my draw is still pretty monsterish here given villain's limited range. Then again, if I am ahead villain folds overcards but more than likely pushes
his overpair. My range on him is specifically AK, and QQ+.

[andy-akb]

You are ahead of that range:

Board: 4d 2d 6s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.5508 % 45.98% 00.57% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 53.4492 % 52.88% 00.57% { 6c5c }

But that makes it somewhat difficult, if we raise and he calls and then the turn bricks Im really not sure what to do. Fold if he bets maybe and check behind if he checks? I probably raise and call a push here.

How limited is your sample though? If he could have a wider range then a call may be in order. I would like to hear what other people have to say though.

[Renton]

I probably make it 70 and fold to a push. I think he's betting out with nothing enough to make this raise +EV.

[midas06]

I probably make it 70 and fold to a push. I think he's betting out with nothing enough to make this raise +EV.

[gabe]

I probably make it 70 and fold to a push. I think he's betting out with nothing enough to make this raise +EV.

that line is terrible, you couldnt fold to a push after putting that much in

i just call here, if i had pair + oesd i would raise usually

[Renton]

doesn't just call you leave you in a conundrum when overcards fall on the turn and river?

[ripjohngotti]

88 77 99 1010?

[elipsesjeff]

Well, my raise has no value, unfortunately. As, overcards fold and overpairs push. But then again, I dunno.

[Renton]

you couldnt fold to a push after putting that much in

i don't think we are good enough against a 3bet push range to make the call

[andy-akb]

Well, my raise has no value, unfortunately. As, overcards fold and overpairs push. But then again, I dunno.

You are ahead against overpairs.

[Renton]

Well, my raise has no value, unfortunately. As, overcards fold and overpairs push. But then again, I dunno.

You are ahead against overpairs.

he only has 9 outs

[Fnord]

Call, hope you improve, make him fire second barrels.

[elipsesjeff]

Well, my raise has no value, unfortunately. As, overcards fold and overpairs push. But then again, I dunno.

You are ahead against overpairs.

??


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,322,371 games 13.800 secs 892,925 games/sec

Board: 6s 4h 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 67.8468 % 67.29% 00.55% { AdAh }
Hand 2: 32.1532 % 31.60% 00.55% { 6c5c }

[Fnord]

Board: 2d 6s 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.3586 % 32.78% 00.58% { 6c5c }
Hand 2: 66.6414 % 66.06% 00.58% { TT+ }

73,260 games 0.020 secs 3,663,000 games/sec

Board: 2d 6s 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.8911 % 57.33% 00.56% { 6c5c }
Hand 2: 42.1089 % 41.55% 00.56% { TT+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }

I think you want to play a turn here.

[elipsesjeff]

Call, hope you improve, make him fire second barrels.

Turn Card: :As:

SB Bets $33 into a $95 pot. Now what?

[Fnord]

Turn Card: :As:

SB Bets $33 into a $95 pot. Now what?

Can't fold.

Think you can push him off of KK/QQ/JJ?

[andy-akb]

Fuck, my bad. I was looking at your OP and did the calculation based on AKx, QQ+. Disregard that part of my post.

[alias2211]

any diamond, 5, 3 or 6 is really an action killer against a player like this.
he's giving you just about correct pot odds to call, but for implied odds considerations, i'm just not sure a 33/7 really pays off a big pot, especially after the flop. you can call flop, but if you hit, you probably can't try to force a huge pot here. he's probably not folding to a raise on the flop w/ an overpair so you'd be getting all in or folding to his 3bet. so all this adds up to a flop call. it's not weak tight, it is just the best way to play for as much money as possible when you don't have to catch up. sometimes you just can't play for stacks. and remember, you don't actually have to hit a 5 or 3 to win, you can also bluff a diamond i'm pretty sure.

yes, you're ahead from an +EV perspective 52/48 but that is such a small edge that playing for huge pots just gives you wild variance and very little actual profit. play for big pots when you have a significant edge or when you know if you make your hand along the way you can double up or close to it. here you have neither, i'm afraid.

all this aside, if you think getting all in will help your image, for any reason, then that might be the deciding factor. i often find myself playing for big pots w/ extremely small edges for image reasons alone.

[Fnord]

Given that it's button vs blind and people don't like to fold in short-handed games, I think Jeff gets paid off for a bet here at least (but maybe not stacks) when he improves.

33/7 could mean a lot of things, I'm frantically pulling up my PT record on this guy for any big pots he's ever played or other post-flop information. Then again, I usually only play 2-4 tables.

[elipsesjeff]

I agree with Fnord and thats how I played the hand. Called the flop, called the turn and he checked to me on the river when I bricked, and naturally, I checked behind. He had KK.

[Fnord]

Think he folds to a river push? If he's a thinking (yet semi-loose and passive) player that might do him in.

[Renton]

wow i totally misinterpreted the hand

I thought YOU raised, and HE called (not reraised). Then I thought his flop bet was a donkbet.

Oh man. Ok. I definitely do NOT raise this on the flop. I call or maybe even fold.

[Miffed22001]

Call, hope you improve, make him fire second barrels.

yes

[gabe]

Think he folds to a river push?

usually not

[dsaxton]

I'd just call. If you raise, he pushes a high pair and folds overcards. I see no reason to charge myself to draw if he has the former.

There are also a lot of scare cards you could catch that might allow you to get him to fold the best hand.

[Robert]

jeff,

I call. With his reraising range I dont see any reason to raise flop here. You dont have any folding equity against AA-QQ here.