Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 5

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 27-31-2
Units won: 15.11

Sunday's Record: 7-4
Units Won: 25.29 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 3-4-1
-101 to -110: 13-12-2
+100 to +110: 4-6
+111 to +125: 1-2
+125 to +185: 4-2
+186 to +300: 3-3
+300 onwards: 0-0

1 unit plays: 12-15-1
2 unit plays: 12-10-2
3 unit plays: 1-2
4 unit plays: 1-1
6 unit plays: 1-0
9 unit plays: 1-0
10 unit plays: 0-1

Notes:
2 middle attempts, failed: scalped for a total gain of +.4 units.

~~~

Ok:

This weeks lines are almost entirely dominated by home favorites...I mean...damn. And none of the underdogs on the road look ALL that appetizing to me either.

Only one bet so far:

PHI -2.5 (-101)
6 units at Pinnacle

I am waiting to be able to use the free half point on JAC to make it JAC -6.5 instead of JAC -7, but we'll see if nine will still let me. They've been known to cut people's limits to diddly squat after you beat them for a noticeable amount.

If the line doesn't move, I'll probably sell to JAC -9.5 (+whatever). I'm pretty confident that JAC will be able to pound the Jets, especially coming off two straight losses and heading into the bye week. This is also a system play for me.

I'm looking to tease JAC to -1 (6 pts) and am looking for possible partners for it. Perhaps MIN -.5 vs. DET.

If I want to do a 7 point teaser, I'll hit up NE to -2.5 as well.

New England -9 (skybook) looks tasty to me currently as well. Only problem is that the public is on it, and that NE may suffer a letdown after that huge win last week. They are heading into their bye, though, and that makes them a system play. I'll probably stick a unit or two on that game.

Allright; those are my initial thoughts from the opening lines. Do what you may with it.

[ensign_lee]

CHI/BUF OVER 34 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

Straight up system play. That, and I think that Buffalo should be able to put up points all over this Buffalo defense. They're still too young.

[ensign_lee]

JAC -6 (-110) vs. NYJ
12 units at Skybook

OK. Jets on the road have faced Tennessee and Buffalo: not exactly the powerhouses of the NFL. Yes, they did win, but Jacksonville is not like TEN or BUF. Their defense is stronger, and their offense is not playing musical chairs at QB.

Mangini had to gamble, gamble, and GAMBOOOL against the Colts to keep the game close (onside kick, anyone?), and he lucked out in doing so to actually keep the game close.

Also, there's no "look-ahead" game here: next week is Jacksonville's bye week. This is a strong factor for Jacksonville, as they will not want to go into the bye week on an 0-3 run, and have the talent to make sure that doesn't happen against the Jets.

Sure, they did just lose a game @ Washington and @ Indy. But really, that @ Indy game should have been theirs (two easy, easy missed FGs). Plus, I think the Jags are one of those teams that just plays tons better at home: don't forget, they beat Dallas and Pittsburgh here, in games where most everyone thought that they were going to lose.

-6 is tasty here (yay free half point!). So yay jags?

{edited to make it 12 units rather than 10 units}

[ensign_lee]

Also added these plays for tomorrow:

Arizona +4 (-110)
1 unit at Nine
Just WAAAY too many people on KC for my taste. With a backup QB playing for KC, I'll go with the Cards as a home dog.

Two Team 6.5 Point Teaser (-110)
JAC pk, CHI/BUF OVER 27.5
6 units at Mansion

TB +7 @ NO (-110)
2 units at Nine
WAAAY too many people hopping on this NO bandwagon. I think the line shoudl be around -4, tops. With this line, NO has to win by at least a touchdown. Tampa Bay hasn't fallen THAT far.


Will be looking at a play on the ARI moneyline if I can get around +185 or so.

[ensign_lee]

Checked in this morning for some line moves, and wow. They prompted me to have a little more action:

IND -16.5 vs. TEN (-110)
3 units at Skybook

NE -9.5 vs. MIA (+102.9)
1 unit at Matchbook

STL -2.5 @ GB (-101)
1 unit at Pinnacle

Also, starting to look towards upping my bet on Philadelphia, now that I can get +120 for -2.5.

[ensign_lee]

Upgrading my PHI -2.5 play to a 16 unit play

I got the last 10 units at +118 at Mansion's sports exchange.

[euphoricism]

16 unit? That sounds pretty confident! :P

[zook]

HOLY SHIT!!!! E-A-G-L-E-S!!!!!!!!!

Huge week for you ensign_lee, looks like you went undefeated?!?!?!

[ensign_lee]

Almost undefeated. Indy squished me.

BUT YAY EAGLES! AND YAY JAGUARS! AND YAY EVERYONE ELSE!

[zook]

Still, huge week for you. Congrats.

I'm glad I didn't place any bets this week, everything I picked was a loser. That Philly interception return killed a Wong teaser for only like the second or third time this season.

[ensign_lee]

Thanks for the words of encouragement. Really, thanks.

That Philly game was a heart-attack inducer, though. Glad the Jags didn't make me nearly die like that game did.

[elipsesjeff]

Still, huge week for you. Congrats.

I'm glad I didn't place any bets this week, everything I picked was a loser. That Philly interception return killed a Wong teaser for only like the second or third time this season.

Hah, I got up too late, they already had the bets off board at 1:00 EST

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 35-32-2
Units won: 54.64

Sunday's Record: 8-1
Units Won: 39.53 units

YTD Record Broken Down:
-201 or worse: 0-0
-125 or -200: 0-0
-111 to -125: 3-4-1
-101 to -110: 19-13-2
+100 to +110: 6-6
+111 to +125: 1-2
+125 to +185: 4-2
+186 to +300: 3-3
+300 onwards: 0-0

1 unit plays: 15-15-1
2 unit plays: 14-10-2
3 unit plays: 1-3
4 unit plays: 1-1
6 unit plays: 2-0
9 unit plays: 1-0
10 unit plays: 0-1
12 unit plays: 1-0
16 unit plays: 1-0

Notes:
2 middle attempts, failed: scalped for a total gain of +.4 units.
~~~
For this week's PHI game, since I had $300 at -101 and $500 at +118, I did a weighted average and made it +110.9

Yay! I have more winning bets than losing bets!

[ensign_lee]

Added OVER 33 (-104) @ Pinnacle for tonight's MNF game for 2 units.

Game is 3-3 in teh third.

Haha. Bye bye money.