zook's Picks: NFL Week 11

[zook]

Not a lot jumping out at me in the early lines, but this looks like a no-brainer. I wouldn't be surprised if public money moves this line during the week.

Ind -1 vs. DAL (+101) - 2 units @ Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

Yeah; normally I'd be jumping on that for that exact reason, but...I dunno. Something about this year; books seem to be 'gambling' more, refusing to move lines that they have a position on.

[ensign_lee]

I REAAAAAALY wanna take the Colts though...

[bigspenda73]

Really? I really like the boyz right now. The Colts are going to have to lose sometime, why not now? They didn't look bulletproof last week and Romo might be turning the Cowboys around, Im hoping the public moves this one bigtime and I can take it around +3 later this week.

[zook]

What have the boyz done this year? They're 0-3 against teams over .500 and the combined record of teams they've beaten is 10-25. I really like Romo too, but this is about Dallas's defense stopping Manning/Harrison/Wayne and that's not going to happen. Roy Williams is terrible against the pass and Greg Ellis, one of their best pass rushers, was injured yesterday and is out for the season. Indy's the best team in football right now and I think there's a ton of value taking them at -1.

[elipsesjeff]

I agree about the colts kicking the crap out of dallas next week. This actually has the liking for a good reverse middle but I'm going to wait until later in the week to do anything.

[zook]

Just placed this:

JETS +7 vs. Chi (-107) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

The Bears are the shit, blah, blah, blah. Jets played well against the Pats on the road last week and this smells like a letdown game for Chicago after their big win against NY on Sunday night. An above .500, big home dog and 7 pts... I'll take this a lot.

[zook]

WTF, the Colts are UNDERDOGS now?!?! Line is Indy +1 (-107) at Pinny, ML is even money. I know that Dallas has one the best rushing offenses and Indy one of the worst rushing defenses, but STILL. Wow.

[zook]

Just grabbed this 3-team 6.5-point teaser:

Indy +7.5 vs. Dallas
Buffalo +7.5 vs. Houston
San Diego +7.5 vs. Denver
1 unit @ Pinnacle (+140)

I like all three teams to win, with the possible exception of San Diego, but I think they'll at least keep it close. Also, if the first two hit, I'll have the option of hedging and getting a nice middle on the third game.

[zook]

Well, the sharps are sharps for a reason and I'm not one of them. Still surprised Indy couldn't manage more offense. Jets bet seemed good with the line moving all week, but they couldn't even score. Thankfully my teaser hit making it only a -1.6 unit day.

YTD Update:

Straight wagers: 11-9
2-team teasers: 7-1
3-team teasers: 1-3

+16.5 units