zook's Picks: NBA

[zook]

I follow the NBA pretty closely, but don't bet it as much as the NFL. I really like the Spurs this year, with Duncan taking the summer off to get healthy. I just placed a bet on tonight's game:

San Antonio (ML +142) vs. DAL - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Saw a heads-up about this bet on 2+2:

NO vs. Ind UNDER 196 (-110) 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Last year these teams avg. totals were 188 and 186. And their head-to-head matchups had totals of 172 and 182.

[zook]

Alright, this total has come all the way down to 193, so I'm going for a FAT middle on this game.

NO vs. Ind OVER 193 (+111) 1 unit @ Pinnacle

If the total ends up 194 or 195, I win 2 units, 193 or 196 I win 1 unit, anything else I win 0.01 unit

[zook]

So much for not playing the NBA much.

Portland +9.5 vs. Golden State (-101) @ Pinnacle - 1 unit

I like Portland to be much improved this year. Zach Randolph is back playing well, the team is re-built and Brandon Roy is a stud. Golden State still sucks.

[zook]

Missed the half-middle by 2 points, full middle by 3. Portland couldn't quite cover either. Down 1 unit yesterday, +0.5 overall.

Ind vs. NY UNDER 202.5 (-105) - 1 unit @Pinnacle

Another one I found on the 2+2 forum that looks really good given both teams avg. totals from last year and their head-to-head matchups.

[zook]

Lakers ML (+112) vs. Sonics - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

The Sonics are terrible. I can't believe they're favorites here, even at home.

Quick question about hedging totals at halftime... the Indy/NY game from my last post had a really low first-half total. So low that the second half need to total 118 or more for me to lose my under, and the posted second half line was 100. Should I have taken the hedge/middle opportunity? It seemed stupid at the time, because my under seemed sure to hit. So it looked like a simple question of whether I thought the second half total would go over 100 (which I didn't have an opinion on, so I didn't go for the halftime hedge/middle). Is this the right way to look at it?

[zook]

Not the greatest first week for me, but I'm not giving up yet.

NBA YTD:

Straight wagers: 1-2
Totals: 0-1
Middles: 0 for 1

-1.5 units

Just placed these at Pinnacle:

Spurs -6.5 vs. Knicks (-103) - 1 unit

Spurs are on a back-to-back after Toronto, so I almost passed, but they're playing the Knicks, who I plan on fading early and often.

Blazers +11 vs. Clippers (-104) - 1 unit

I like the Blazers and I think this line is too high for two low scoring teams. (Clippers numbers are inflated by two games against Phoenix.)

[zook]

Despite Nate McMillan's moronic fouling at the end of last night's game to keep Portland from covering or at least pushing, I'm going to continue betting big dogs early this season.

Atl +11 vs. CLE (-107) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

Well done zook!

Had an offer oustanding for +560 on the Hawks, but nobody took it. Darn...

Oh well. NICE HIT ZOOK!

[zook]

Thanks I thought about betting the ML around +520, but then remembered it was the Hawks Sorry your offer didn't get taken, would have been sweet.

[zook]

Just placed this, riding the Hornets wave:

Hornets +1.5 vs. Warriors (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

NBA YTD:
Straight wagers: 2-2
Totals: 0-1
Middles: 0 for 1
-0.5 units

[zook]

Treading water in the NBA so far this season, I'll probably scale back and make just a few bets a week. Just placed this, I just think the line is too high, even with Memphis playing a back-to-back.

Memphis +9 vs. LAL (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Blech, missed the cover by a point. Oh well. Really like this over for tomorrow... NJ's on a back-to-back, but Seattle's defense is horrendous.

Sonics vs. Nets OVER 195 (+103) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

Eh; it happens, zook. Chin up, son.

I also went 0-1 tonight for the NBA.

[zook]

Thanks for the encouragement lee.

Blech, missed the cover by a point. Oh well. Really like this over for tomorrow... NJ's on a back-to-back, but Seattle's defense is horrendous.

Sonics vs. Nets OVER 195 (+103) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Just middled this at Pinny with:

Sonics vs. Nets UNDER 196 (-101) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

So if the total is 195 or 196 I win 1 unit, otherwise I win 0.01 unit.

[zook]

Didn't come close to the middle, but no regrets. I don't think my edge handicapping the NBA results in greater EV than a free double half-middle. (At least I think that's what you call it.)

I still like Portland this year and Minnesota's been playing terribly, so I just placed these.

Por +8 vs. MIN (-107) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Por M/L (+300) vs. MIN - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Saw two lines for tomorrow night's games that I like, so I took them early. I'm fading the Celtics and Knicks, especially at home where both teams' fans are booing enough that I think they have a home court disadvantage when they fall behind.

Ind -2 vs. BOS (-109) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Was -3 vs. NY (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Spread and ML moved in the Portland game, despite slightly more consensus money on Portland. Lee would say this is a trap, and it might be, but I upped my bets on both anyway. Gambool! That gives me:

Por +8 vs. MIN (-107) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Por +8.5 vs. MIN (-103) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Por ML (+300) vs. MIN - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle
Por ML (+340) vs. MIN - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle

Portland's won their last three matchups, they have height and fouls to use against KG, and Minny's been terrible so far. Let's go Blazers!!!

[ensign_lee]

Ouch; watch out pressing your bets like that.

And no; I wouldn't have said that was a trap. The percentages weren't that out of whack.

That would be smart money moving the game...unfortunately against you.

Better luck next time, zook. Chin up! That's we have a bankroll for!

[zook]

Ouch is right! And that's what we have a bankroll for is right too Thanks for the encouragement, my chin is up, ready for Indy and Washington to win me back a couple of units tomorrow night...

[zook]

Well, both lines I have for tonight have moved against me. Indy to -1.5 (-103) and Washington to -3 (+100). Again I'm tempted to press my bets, but after last night, I think I'll hold off. So for now I still have:

Ind -2 vs. BOS (-109) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Was -3 vs. NY (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Considering Phi (+4) vs. SEA (-105) but probably won't place it. Feeling a little gunshy on NBA bets, being down 5.5 units so far.

[ensign_lee]

Not happy to see that we're opposite on the NY bet.

But uh...one of us should be able to win.

Well, actually, we could get middled.

[zook]

Yeah, I placed that last night soon after the line came out. I'm pretty surprised it moved against me. Given my NBA record so far, I wouldn't worry if I were you

Decided to play this too. Philly's rested, Iverson historically plays well against the Sonics and I think Seattle's overrated right now.

Phi M/L +158 vs. SEA - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Well, not only did two pick I was pretty confident in lose, they got OWNED. I think it's time for a break from the NBA. Hopefully the Sixers can salvage a little of my pride right about now.

[ensign_lee]

zook. I understand how you feel. Look back to how I was doing betting NFL preseason and the first two weeks that I was betting. I was getting PWNED.

Just before you place your bets next time, check to see where teh public is at, and if you're on the same side as them, lay off. If you're opposite them on a side you like, maybe double your bet?

But yeah; just watch out hitting those early lines. I'll be the first to admit I'm not good enough to judge early lines to see what will happen and where I should be; too often do I jump on the same sinking ship as the public.

So just watch out, and maybe only place your bets the day of for NBA? Or, if you can stand it, like five minutes before?

[ensign_lee]

Philadelphia came through for ya; nice call!

[zook]

Thanks lee. Good advice about not taking early lines and I'll give more thought to fading the public.

YTD Update:
Straight wagers: 3-8
Totals: 0-1
Middles: 0 for 2
- 5 units

[zook]

I'm going with lee's capper's pick. It looks solid.

NJ vs. Indy OVER 186.5 (-103) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

I also like the Jazz ML vs. the Sonics and the Blazers +7 vs. the Celtics. But I'm going to stay far, far way from the Blazers for awhile

[zook]

Added these:

Dal vs. Memphis OVER 186 (-110) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Read a good post about this on another forum. Memphis is trying to play a more uptempo game, so even though their early games have been low-scoring, that should change. Dallas has finally hit their stride offensively the last couple of games.

Phi M/L (+270) vs. Pho - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle

This is my pick, so it will probably lose, lol. I think this line is too high because Phoenix had success against Philly last year and finally played a good game their last time out. I'm not super-confident in the Sixers, but I like +270 here.

[zook]

2-0 on the totals tonight feels good.

Nash is apparently out with back spasms, so I just laid this:

Phi +7.5 vs. Pho (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Sorry we're on opposite sides here lee

[ensign_lee]

Good call on that Dallas over; was afraid to touch it since the Public was on Dallas + over. Oh well; my bad.

Yay zook profiting!

[zook]

Thanks lee. Yay me profiting a half-unit after the late Philly bet... can't believe they couldn't cover with Nash out.

Just laid this:

Mem vs. Dal OVER 191.5 (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

They played last night and the total was 218. Dallas back-to-back's tend to go over, Memphis's tend to go under, but Memphis is playing more uptempo the last few games.

[zook]

Well, lee taking the Blazers is enough for me to jump back on board with them. It didn't take much...

Por ML (+410) vs. NJ - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Ah! I just missed a hedge/middle by a second or two, dammit!

I wasn't sure I should take it anyway, so I'll post it here for opinions... I wanted to take:

2nd half - NJ -9.5 vs. Por (+104) - 1 unit

This would have guaranteed me a unit win on the game. And if Portland won by 7 pts. or less, I would have won three units. Good bet? Sacrificing a resaonably sure 2 units (see my ML bet in my last post) for a rock-solid 1 unit and a chance at 3 units?

[zook]

I mean, PHEW am I glad I missed that halftime middle

[zook]

Dallas/Memphis didn't get close the over... but any winning night is a good night, especially for me right now.

YTD Update:
Straight wagers: 4-10
Totals: 2-2
Middles: 0 for 2
- 3.5 units

[zook]

I placed these last night after seeing write-ups on another forum.

Dal -3.5 vs. CHA (-111) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

This has already moved to -5, not sure if there's still value there. Brevin Knight is questionable for Charlotte and would be a big loss.

Orl vs. Mem OVER 185 (-110) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Another play on Memphis going over because they've recently started playing more uptempo. This also just seems like a low total b/c both teams games' average a little over 192.

Two games I'm seriously thinking about, but waiting to pull the trigger on until closer to game time:

NJ M/L (+121) vs. Sea
Hou (-4) vs. NY (-104)

NJ's coming off an embarrassing loss to Portland at home and I think they'll bounce back. Richard Jefferson should be back in the lineup, although it isn't definite, so the line might move once that's announced. The other game is just fading the Knicks at home again.

[zook]

Added a unit on the Orl/Mem OVER and put a unit on the NJ M/L, leaving me with:

Dal -3.5 vs. CHA (-111) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
Orl vs. Mem OVER (-110) - 2 units @ Pinnacle
NJ M/L vs. Sea (+132) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Only the last play is my own... NJ lost a close, high-scoring game to Seattle last week the night after playing an overtime game in Washington. NJ got killed by Portland at home last game and I think that since they have some vets on their team, they'll bounce back strong. Seattle's overrated, imo, and hasn't been playing well at home so far this season.

[zook]

Bleh, down two units tonight. NJ was in control of the game until the last three minutes. VC is sucking a lot more than I thought he would in a contract year.

For tomorrow I like New Orleans -5 against Miami and the Washington +5 or M/L (+178) against Dallas.

[ensign_lee]

I know the feeling. I think I went 1-4 or 1-5 last night. Blech indeed.

[zook]

I read on another forum that Iverson's out tonight after undergoing oral surgery today. Looks like the team confirmed it:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2671011

I liked Detroit -1 to begin with, so I just jumped on:

Det -1.5 vs. PHI (-105) - 2 units @ Pinnacle

I think this line is going to move in a hurry...

[zook]

Added two more for tonight:

NO -4.5 vs. Mia (-111) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Was M/L vs. DAL (+175) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

And GO Pistons!

[IowaSkinsFan]

Yeah, I really like Wash over Dallas, I mean to win their first game on the road is going to be really important.

[zook]

You homer Not a good second half for the Wiz, I'm afraid.

But a good night for me! Up 2 units Still down a few for the season, I'll post a detailed YTD a little later tonight.

[zook]

Don't have time to do the full update I would like to do. Going home for the holidays, probably won't be placing any bets from there. BOL to everyone.

YTD Update:
Straight wagers: 7-12
Totals: 2-3
Middles: 0 for 2
- 3.5 units

[zook]

Back in town, back to gambling. Just placed this:

Spurs vs. Warriors UNDER 196 (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Spurs are on a back-to-back and have only had a couple of non-overtime games go over this total all year. Line opened at 199 and has been dropping fast. Pinny still doesn't seem to want action on the under from their posted line.

Also contemplating GS M/L, which is at +167 right now. After doing some reading I'm going to start betting a lot of home dogs I think, and with the Spurs on a back-to-back it seems like as good a time as ever to bet against them.

[zook]

Two more:

GS +4 vs. SA (-110) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

This is my own play, going with a home dog. Don't like fading the Spurs but they're on a back-to-back and Ginobili's out. I was going to play the M/L like ensign_lee here, but he convinced me not too. Let's hope the Warriors run away with it and we both win.

MIA -3 vs. Phi (+100) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

From a capper on another forum. Makes me a little nervous because Miami's been playing like shite and Iverson can blow up at any time, but Philly's been playing terribly on the road and Mourning's been stepping up his game.

Contemplating one more play from another capper, Utah -6 vs. the Magic. Line was at -5.5 most of the day and just moved up. Magic have been playing well recently, but haven't beaten any good teams. Tough call.

[bigspenda73]

I like the GS M/L as well as the under. I got slightly differnt lines than you, Under 196.5 (-110) and GS+175. I really like the under now that both Manu and Baron are both out, however, the M/L scares me now b/c Davis is much more valuable to GS than Manu is to the Spurs

Looks like we're on the same page, good luck to ya.

[zook]

Nice work finding those lines. Good luck to you too!

[zook]

2-1 tonight. Miami won easily, Golden State won outright (congrats on the M/L wins lee & bigspenda!) and my under play wasn't even close.

Did some accounting and came up with a new, improved, more accurate record:

Spreads: 7-8
Moneylines: 3-5
Totals: 2-4
YTD: -2.17 units

Doing some research, scouring other forums, hoping to get out of the red soon...

[bigspenda73]

Yea, really thought that under play was locked solid after two big threats weren't even playing. However, I have a new theory on good defensive teams playing back to backs. I just think after playing hard defense (i.e. SA holding Seattle to 78 last night) that there isn't much left in the tank to stop anyone the next night. And we all know from playing bball it is much easier to play harder on offense than it is on defense when you are tired.

[zook]

I actually used to use that theory, that teams give up more points than their average on the second night of back-to-backs, but it didn't pay off for me (in a very small sample size). The stats are out there, I'm sure, but I'm not sure where to look. You can make a "common-sense" argument for more points or fewer points I think.

[ensign_lee]

I think it would work in reverse.

Especially in teh second half for the road team that's doing back to back. Is it harder to shoot or play defense when you're tired? Shoot, obviously.

Unders in back to back games would normally be gold.

[zook]

I've got the same play lee does:

Min +8.5 vs. HOU (+100) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Thinking about the Cha/NJ OVER 186.5 and Cha +7 too.

[zook]

Added these two for tonight:

Cha +7.5 vs. NJ (-110) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

From the same capper that gave me the Minny play. NJ's coming back home after a horrid four-game west coast road trip.

Atl M/L (+260) vs. WAS - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle

My play. Both teams have been terrible recently, so this just seems like a juicy M/L.

That's probably it for me tonight.

[zook]

Damn, Atlanta had two chances to make this a 3-0 night for me. Still, 2-1 and +1.4 units is a good night.

Spreads: 9-8
Moneylines: 3-6
Totals: 2-4
YTD: - 0.77 units

[zook]

A few plays I like for tomorrow... Cha/Atl UNDER 188 (+106), Atl -4.5 vs. Cha (+108), Spurs +1.5 vs. Jazz (-111) & Magic +2.5 vs. Sonics (-105). Really like the Spurs and Magic. Given my track record I'm going to wait, see how the lines move, read what cappers have to say, etc.

edit: Atl line was -4.5, not +4.5

[bigspenda73]

Zook, what cappers are you reading and where are they posting? Thanks

[ensign_lee]

bigspenda, you should have a PM from one of us shortly.

[bigspenda73]

You guys are tha shit

[zook]

Just placed this:

Mem vs. LAC OVER 180.5 (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Got this from a capper and I agree with him, this line just doesn't make sense. Both teams average well over this total. Big red flag is that both teams are on back-to-backs. But Cassell could be back from his injury tonight and he's well rested. I still like the play, obv.

[zook]

Also these:

Spurs -1 vs. Jazz (-105) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Sorry I didn't get on this +1.5 last night. Money's all over San Antonio and the line's been moving steadily, wanted to jump on this before it moves any more.

Hou M/L (+270) vs. Pho - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle

Another half-unit big dog play. T-Mac may be out, but so may Amare. No one on Phoenix can guard Yao.

[zook]

Added:

Orl +2.5 vs. SEA (-102) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

I think Orlando is a much better team than Seattle and I'm happy to get points, even on the road in a potential let-down situation after the Magic's win in Utah. Seattle has no one in the middle to cope with Dwight Howard and they're on a losing streak.

Four games on the card tonight!

[zook]

2-2 on the night, but up half a unit. Surprised the Jazz took over the fourth quarter like that against the Spurs. Impressive.

Spreads: 10-9
Moneylines: 3-7
Totals: 3-4
YTD: - 0.34 units

[ensign_lee]

Nice hit on that Orland line.

And good job today zook!