Combo draw; ALL IN!!

[JL]

Judging by his Insta-push on the flop, I can rule out a set (and 2 pair probably) can't I?

So, easy call then?

GAME #461937978: Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1 2006-12-11 23:10:41
Table Harrington (6 max)
Seat 1: cheeseweezle ($103.11 in chips)
Seat 3: hson ($95.85 in chips)
Seat 5: j0nnyb0y ($127.45 in chips)
Seat 6: Berdugo ($44.35 in chips)
Seat 8: Amzig ($70.80 in chips) DEALER
Seat 10: katsumi ($69.15 in chips)
katsumi: Post SB $0.50
cheeseweezle: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to j0nnyb0y :Ac: :Jc:
hson: Fold
j0nnyb0y: Raise $4.00
Berdugo: Fold
Amzig: Fold
katsumi: Fold
cheeseweezle: Call $3.00
*** FLOP ***
cheeseweezle: Bet $6.00
j0nnyb0y: Raise $15.00
cheeseweezle: Insta-pushes Allin $93.11
j0nnyb0y: Call $84.11

[euphoricism]

You can rule out no such thing. Without more info, this is a pretty "ok" spot to call.

[Harry]

A set is def. a possibility here.

[JL]

You can rule out no such thing. Without more info, this is a pretty "ok" spot to call.

True...but he is a donk...donks tend to slow play sets and 2 pair do they not???

[bigspenda73]

You can rule out no such thing. Without more info, this is a pretty "ok" spot to call.

True...but he is a donk...donks tend to slow play sets and 2 pair do they not???

Not on this board, they'd be afraid of it

[IowaSkinsFan]

I don't think ever going all in with a flush draw with almost 2 to 1 on the flop is ever bad enough to talk about.

[givememyleg]

What's the combination?

[Halv]

Runner runner royal obv.

I call flop.

[bode]

im not seeing the combo draw either.

[Lukie]

seems like a pretty easy call

[Harry]

If the call is -ev, its only slightly so.

[griffey24]

im not seeing the combo draw either.

Maybe the combo is the possible outs his overcards give him?...

[jyms]

I'm confused. This is nowhere near 2:1 to call. Is it really ok to call a possible set all in with just a flush draw and a runner runner str8 draw. he easily has 44, 77, AT but likeky JJ. It's $84 to call into a $122 pot, I never have called this. Should I?? With a OESD draw and flush draw maybe. But I need to know why you would call this.

[Halv]

I ran a possible likely range for an unknown player; sets, overpairs, combodraws:

Board: Tc 7c 4s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.2623 % 39.21% 00.05% { AcJc }
Hand 2: 60.7377 % 60.69% 00.05% { TT+, 77, 44, 9c8c }

We're getting 40.6% pot odds, so given this range (and no chance for pure bluffs) the call is slightly -EV. However, the read is that villain is a donk. His range is obviously wider.

I expect to see a worse draw here alot.

[Lukie]

I'm confused. This is nowhere near 2:1 to call. Is it really ok to call a possible set all in with just a flush draw and a runner runner str8 draw. he easily has 44, 77, AT but likeky JJ. It's $84 to call into a $122 pot, I never have called this. Should I?? With a OESD draw and flush draw maybe. But I need to know why you would call this.

if he's aggro, there's a decent possibility that we're already good (there are many worse draws that this villain could b3bai with), and you have to consider that our overcards give us some added equity as well. Sure, they might be dead to a set sometimes, but other times the A might be live against a KK that just called preflop, or the J might be live against AT (pretty unlikely IMO but possible), or both might be live agaainst something like 4xcc. Calling here is at worst a small mistake against some ranges, and a pretty bad mistake against others.

[euphoricism]

Yeah I agree. I dont mind a call, but I certainly wouldnt fault you for finding a better spot against the moron.

[Lukie]

I'm confused. This is nowhere near 2:1 to call. Is it really ok to call a possible set all in with just a flush draw and a runner runner str8 draw. he easily has 44, 77, AT but likeky JJ. It's $84 to call into a $122 pot, I never have called this. Should I?? With a OESD draw and flush draw maybe. But I need to know why you would call this.

if he's aggro, there's a decent possibility that we're already good (there are many worse draws that this villain could b3bai with), and you have to consider that our overcards give us some added equity as well. Sure, they might be dead to a set sometimes, but other times the A might be live against a KK that just called preflop, or the J might be live against AT (pretty unlikely IMO but possible), or both might be live agaainst something like 4xcc. Calling here is at worst a small mistake against some ranges, and a pretty bad mistake against others.

meant to say at the end that folding is a pretty bad mistake against some ranges**

[jyms]

Understood. That is what I was having the problems with. OP said you could rule out the set, but unless this guy is a 50+/5/3.0+ I don't call this. Any tight, average player here has TPTK, set or overpair in my world, so calling this thin of a margin is out for me. If he has anything else, I will get it from him on a later hand.

[JL]

Understood. That is what I was having the problems with. OP said you could rule out the set, but unless this guy is a 50+/5/3.0+ I don't call this. Any tight, average player here has TPTK, set or overpair in my world, so calling this thin of a margin is out for me. If he has anything else, I will get it from him on a later hand.

Well he was 55/30/4....

...and he flipped over KcQc


PS: the combo draw is 2 overs plus FD...which in this case was just as good as a straight flush draw.
When I made the call I was pretty confident that my overs were good...unless he had AT...then I only had 12 outs.

Just wondered what you guys thought...glad to know that it wasnt too hard of a decision.