good read, or bad play

[mixchange]

No reads from other hands, except that he is sick of my "raise before 3/4 of the pots I enter and bet on 3/4 of the flops I see" routine and I get the distinct feeling he is trying to 'play back at me'

I call his raise to establish I won't be pushed off flops easily, plus I have plenty of outs, especially because I'm not buying he has a jack.

My read at the turn is that the six puts me ahead. Since I don't think he has a jack, and considering my gutshot and flush draw even if he does have a jack I still have a lot of outs. i consider fold equity to be zero. I'm gonna make the move that makes it seem like I have nothing in hope he will call.

Seat 1: HERO ($43.50 in chips)
Seat 2: SB ($16.35 in chips)


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with 5 6
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 3 J 2 ($2.5, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB raises to $3.5, Hero calls.

Turn: 6 ($9.5, 2 players)
SB bets $3.5, Hero raises all-in $39, SB calls all-in $8.35.
Uncalled bets: $27.15 returned to Hero.

River: 8 ($33.2, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $33.2)


Results:
Final pot: $33.2

[bbqsquirrel]

Fine. I might even push flop since he's quite short.

[zenbitz]

I don't like the BU m/r with 56s. You are just giving blinds odds to call with crap that is ahead of you. Plus, if you do hit (and hit pretty hard) the pot is kinda of small. I am assume BB has a full stack. 56s is useless against short stacks.

But that's at worst a small mistake.

I don't really see the point in standing up to the shorty by calling the flop here. You have no implied odds since he only has ~$12 = 1.5xpot behind. And you aren't really getting express pot odds to call, even with 11 outs. I think pushing flop is better, because you might fold out <TP hands.

Turn is fine, at least now you are ahead of AXh.

[mixchange]

I've been berated enough for minraises here that the practice is over. I will do 1.25 instead. Duly noted about 56s against small stacks, the implied odds are not there. BB had a bigger stack.

What's wrong with calling the flop if my read is he doesn't have a jack? I didn't realize this until I did an odds calc, but If he has paired the 3 or 2 and not the J, then I'm ahead.

[zenbitz]

You can min/raise ... just have a good reason to. Folded to on the button with 56s is just not the right place, because you
a) probably don't have the best hand (not for value)
b) aren't really building a big pot (although you are in position, so good)
c) are not betting enough to bluff/semi bluff (you would rather they fold a random hand than play it vs. 56).

With KTo, maybe a m/r on the button is better vs. terrible opponents.

As for the flop call - no read is so good that he NEVER has a J here (don't forget 77-AA are all possible ... although I would assume QQ+ reraises preflop) - I mean he is exactly representing that he has a J. But the options are not J or 2 or 3. He could have any pair, or a flush draw, or A and a gutshot.

In any case - It's not that bad.... I just think your reasoning might be out of whack.

[mixchange]

are you saying this win % is not correct to call, say if he has KcJs?

the odds are 52.63 to 47.37 (me), that is if it went to the river and he has KJ. But since have him as on tilt, I think he doesn't have a jack, in which case I'm in even better shape. Seemed like villian wanted to 'outmuscle me'. I think if he had J he would have re-raised less, or simply called hoping I would continue to fire. To me his re-raise screamed 'I want to push you out'-- sounds out of whack, but I think I had a solid read on this guy. Normally his line is consistent with the J trying to push drawers out, but not this time (I felt)

Anyway, he flipped over A3s, and I took the pot. I was 94% on the turn, and 61% on the flop.

[zenbitz]

I guess I just wasn't following you.. are you trying to say that your read was that he didn't have a J, so calling is good, or your read doesn't matter because you are a coinflp against a J anyway?

Pushing flop is better because he might not put any money in if a heart hits.

[Miffed22001]

3bet, call a push.
opp is hort and we assume nothing better than a donk so i dont mind gambOOling here even if we lose value on later streets when he will pay us if we hit.
meh. Push.

[Warpe]

I've been berated enough for minraises here that the practice is over. I will do 1.25 instead.

BB is $0.50. Raise 3x<4xbb + 1bb for every limper. In this case there are no limpers but your minimum raise should be $1.50. Personally, I like hitting the bet pot button.

[mixchange]

BB is $0.50. Raise 3x<4xbb + 1bb for every limper. In this case there are no limpers but your minimum raise should be $1.50. Personally, I like hitting the bet pot button.

Thanks. Most of my raises are $1.50 at this level, but for some reason I feel like sometimes I want to raise less than $1.50. Should I just abandon raising anything less than $1.50?

I hadn't been using the limper + 1bb, I usually just threw in an extra $1 if there were any amount of limpers...is limper+1bb something to really stick to? Sometimes I want to raise with suited connectors to say $1.50 w/ 3 limpers, but I really would rather not have to put in $3.00, just seems like too much to risk...or am I playing scared? What do you think?

I guess I just wasn't following you.. are you trying to say that your read was that he didn't have a J, so calling is good, or your read doesn't matter because you are a coinflp against a J anyway?

I'm saying that:
1) I don't think he has a jack, which means I think I'm ahead.
2) Even if I'm wrong and he does have a jack, I'm not in that bad of shape.