zook's Picks: NBA January

[zook]

New month, new thread. I'm not very happy about the way the NBA season's going so far... been putting in a fair amount of effort without seeing any results. Hopefully 2007 will treat me better. All plays at Pinnacle, unless otherwise noted.

YTD:
Sides: 33-32
Moneyline Dogs: 8-15
Totals: 10-13
YTD: +0.38 units ($7.60)

One play for tonight, from a capper and a fading Charlotte play, which I like:

Minn -3.5 vs. CHA (-109) - 1 unit

One early play for tomorrow night, also from a capper.

SA -3.5 vs. CLE (-105) - 1 unit

[zook]

1-0 in the NBA in 2007

[ensign_lee]

[zook]

Was going to bet Den -7.5 vs. Phi, but the line movement on this game is suspicious. Public is all over Denver, somewhere between 80% and 62%. Yet the line opened at -7, moved to -8 but now went back to -7 and looks poised to move to -6.5 (juice is at +102). Anyone looking for a reverse line move play may want to take Philly +6.5 or M/L +250. I can't decide, but I'll probably stay away completely.

[zook]

A capper posted another play I like, Phoenix -4 vs. Chicago, but this game has had reverse line movement too. Opened at Pinny at -5 and has moved down despite the public betting Phoenix at a 66% clip. Weird. I really like Phoenix here, so I'm not sure what to do.

[zook]

Alright, going against a capper and my gut and taking Chicago. Public's on Phoenix to the tune of 65% and the line has dropped from -5 to -3.5.

CHI M/L vs. Pho (+146) - 1 unit

[ensign_lee]

Wish you hadn't done that just yet because I went to research what you said.

Line DID start out at -5 at Pinnacle, BUT it started out at -3.5 at thegreek and at -4 at BetCris.

I just thought I'd give you better info. Anyway, I may still endup joining you on that bet. We'll see.

[zook]

Thanks. Opened at 4.5 at Matchbook. Still, a point or half-point of reverse movement against an "average" opening line. Although now the juice on Chicago +3.5 is up to -111, so it might move back to 4. Use at your own risk, obv

[ensign_lee]

NEVER use Matchbook opening lines. Just a tip. They just use Pinnacle's line at the time their markets go up.

They are NOT a line originator.

[zook]

NEVER use Matchbook opening lines. Just a tip. They just use Pinnacle's line at the time their markets go up.

Excellent info. Thanks.

[zook]

0-2 on the night, but the Chicago loss was a bad beat

YTD:
Sides: 34-33
Moneyline Dogs: 8-16
Totals: 10-13
YTD: -0.71 units

[zook]

A solid capper posted this play, taking the points. I decided to take the M/L too b/c the line has gone down a half-point despite public money being on Washington.

Mil +4.5 vs. WAS (+100) - 1 unit
Mil M/L vs. WAS (+178) - 1 unit

FYI, both Arenas and Haywood are listed as day-to-day and Arenas missed practice yesterday. This might be why the line moved down to 4.5 despite public money on Washington. If they can play, this line might move up again and if they can't I bet it will move down further.

[zook]

Added one more, from a capper. He got it at under 215, but I'm hoping there's still value here:

GS vs. Mem UNDER 212.5 (-104) - 1 unit

That should be it for tonight. Let's go Bucks!

[zook]

I lied. I'm hitting this total too and possibly one more. I was strongly considering this and then a capper came out with it so...

Mil vs. Was UNDER 225.5 (+100) - 1 unit

[ensign_lee]

I'm staying away from the Milwaukee game. Line movements regarding injury are just that - line movements. No reverse stuff, no second-level thinking - just reactions to new information.

Plus, Pinnacle doesnt seemt to want any Washington money. If anything, I'd bet on Washington.

If you can get out of that bet without too much trouble, I'd strongly consider it. If you keep it, go bucks!

[zook]

Again, thanks for the input. I agree that there isn't any reverse line movement here and Pinny doesn't seem to want action Washington. But a second capper posted Mil +4.5 as a play, so I'm staying on it. And go Bucks!

[zook]

did I make some bad bets today. All four of them have moved against me significantly... Pinny now has Mil +5.5, M/L +185, Mil/Was under 227 and GS/Mem under 215.

This is a good reminder to wait until much closer to game time to place my bets.

[zook]

Well, tonight shows you how much of a crapshoot betting the NBA can be... my plays looked pretty bad going in and I ended up 2-2 and didn't even lose juice. In fact, the play I was most confident in got spanked the worst.

YTD:
Sides: 35-33
Moneyline Dogs: 8-17
Totals: 11-14
YTD: -0.71 units

[zook]

Just a heads-up about a definite reverse line movement game... public's on the Lakers at a 60-64% clip and the line has moved from Kings -4 to -5.5. I might make this a 2-unit play, there's definitely some sharp money on the Kings tonight. Waiting a couple of hours though...

[ensign_lee]

Careful. Don't go overboard with the whole 'reverse line movement' thingy.

If the data is only that the public is on the Lakers at around 60%, you should probably let it go. Sometimes, you just have standard deviation messing with the 50/50 split that the books aim for.

I just wanted to keep things in perspective for you, not to rain on your parade, so if you have other factors inducing you to bet on the Kings, then by all means do so, but don't make this a two unit play just because of this reverse line movement.

[zook]

Thanks lee. A good capper made the Kings his play and they have a big homecourt advantage. But still, I think it's pretty likely that big bettors are on the Kings... sportsinsight shows 64% of bets on the Lakers, covers 60%. If it was just standard deviation, why the point and a half move? Always appreciate words of caution though

[zook]

Whelp, the line is back down to -5 so I might stay off Sac/LA altogether.

This is all I have right now, big home dog, taking the points in a game with a low total posted:

NO +8 vs. Det (+100) - 1 unit

[zook]

Hornets looked terrible last night. Gave me hope until the 4th, but oh well.

YTD:
Sides: 35-34
Moneyline Dogs: 8-17
Totals: 11-14
YTD: -1.71 units

A capper's on this play and I like it too. Dallas is on fire and getting points. Tempted to bet the M/L, but haven't decided yet.

Dal +5.5 vs. SA (+100) - 2 units

[zook]

Couple of M/L plays for tonight, first from a capper, second is mine.

Utah M/L vs. HOU (+134) - 1 unit
NY M/L vs. SEA (+183) - 2 units

I like the Knicks tonight, QRich is back and the Sonics have been terrible without Rashard. Don't love betting on NY, but here goes...

[zook]

Two more. Lotta units in play tonight, but I feel good about it.

Dal M/L vs. SA (+210) - 1 unit
Dal vs. SA OVER 185.5 (-105) - 1 unit

[ensign_lee]

Nicely done!!!

Woot + lotsa units!

[zook]

Thanks lee! I loved to see that you had already posted in my thread

Big night, just what I needed in the NBA, up almost 6 units!

YTD:
Sides: 36-34
Moneyline Dogs: 10-18
Totals: 11-15
YTD: +4.05 units

[zook]

Two plays tonight, both mine:

Det M/L vs. CHI (+181) - 1 unit
Por +9 vs. SAC (-104) - 1 unit

[IowaSkinsFan]

Christ, sorry to go in this thread and only talk about the Wizards but I'd seriously consider putting 1 unit on Wiz (+2) vs Raptors.

[zook]

1-1 last night, lost the juice. Pissed I didn't bet the Atl M/L, was really close to hitting it.

First time I'm taking ISF's advice on the Wiz. This just seems like a weird line even with Bosh back.

Was M/L vs. TOR (+113) - 1 unit

Iowa: If the Wiz lose this one, stay outta my thread!

Also like the Mavs and Heat tonight, maybe two units plays... I'll post them later.

[zook]

THAT'S IT IOWA, STAY OUTTA MY THREAD! j/k, j/k

Three more for today, first two from a good capper:

Mia -1.5 vs. POR (+100) - 2 units
Mia vs. Por OVER 183 (-101) - 1 unit
Dal -2.5 vs. LAL (-104) - 1 unit

Let's do this!

[ensign_lee]

Hey zook:

Is D. Wade playing today? You know?

[zook]

YES he is. Confirmed by SB

[zook]

Pushed the Mia/Por total last night which is STUPID b/c I easily could have paid a few more cents of juice and taken 182.5. Oh well. Pushed my other bets too, with Miami winning but Dallas & Washington losing.

YTD:
Sides: 38-35
Moneyline Dogs: 10-20
Totals: 11-15-1
YTD: +4.01 units

[zook]

One play for tonight. From a capper, but the recent trends look really good to me too.

Hou vs. Chi OVER 184 (-105) - 1 unit

[zook]

Didn't come close to going over last night, what an ugly game. Spraying the board tonight, but I like these plays a lot...

Atl +9.5 vs. IND (-104) - 1 unit
PHI pk vs. Det (-103) - 1 unit
Tor M/L vs. NJ (+155) - 1 unit
SAC -3.5 vs. Cle (-105) - 2 units

Let's do this...

[IowaSkinsFan]

k out of the thread, lol.

[zook]

Down 5 units last night The NBA is tough.

YTD:
Sides: 38-38
Moneyline Dogs: 10-21
Totals: 11-16-1
YTD: - 1.99 units

[zook]

Couple for tonight. The first is mine, the second from a capper who lives taking the points.

Ind -3.5 vs. BOS (-105) - 1 unit
LAC M/L vs. MIN (+183) - 1 unit

[zook]

2-0 so far and I'm pressing it with one more from a capper:

GS -3 vs. Orl (-105) - 1 unit

[zook]

I've been thinking about ending this NBA experiment for a few weeks now and Pinnacle shutting down to US customers may what finally does it. I just feel like I'm putting a fair amount of time into my picks and not seeing any return. I'm not watching many NBA games, so unlike the NFL, it's not really adding to my enjoyment of the sport, it's just satisfying my itch for action. I'll see how things shake out...

YTD:
Sides: 39-39
Moneyline Dogs: 11-21
Totals: 11-16-1
YTD: - 0.21 units

[zook]

Oooh, NBA, how can I stay mad at you? Let's never fight again

Couple tonight from cappers:

Dal vs. Ind OVER 186 (-110) - 1 unit @ Mansion
MEM -1.5 vs. Min (-110) - 1.5 units @ Mansion

[ensign_lee]

Hahaha. Well done zook.

Good luck tonight.

[zook]

I withdrew all my $ from Pinnacle and deposited some of it in Mansion, but then proceeded to lose most of that on the NFL last weekend. Now with Neteller not working, I think my sportsbetting days are done for awhile. I have two units left in Mansion, which I'll play with a little (or maybe just once), starting tonight:

Mia -2.5 vs. PHI (-107) - 2 units @ Mansion Exchange

Record update:

YTD:
Sides: 39-40
Moneyline Dogs: 11-21
Totals: 12-16-1
YTD: - 0.81 units

[ensign_lee]

85-90% of the public on that side with you.

I know SB put it up as one of his picks, but um...yeah. If I bet tonight, it'll be on Philly.

[zook]

I actually didn't know SB played it, or that the public's all over Miami. Maybe those cancel each other out This may be the last two units I put on sports for a long time, so I just looked at the lines and chose my favorite game If you go with the Sixers, good luck to you too.

[ensign_lee]

I know the feeling of my money being stranded. I'm going 'derr....' right now.

[ShortStacked]

ya I went with MIAMI too last night. Wade had his chance to win it and he didn't. It amazes me how they were champions last season and now they can't be the team on a losing streak. Sadly I had money on Mia too.

[zook]

Wrapping up this thread, since it doesn't look like I'll be doing any sportsbetting for awhile. It was an up-and-down couple of months in the NBA, that ended on a down. Oh well. It was fun, I learned some things and I'll always have the memories...

YTD:
Sides: 39-41
Moneyline Dogs: 11-21
Totals: 12-16-1
YTD: - 2.81 units (-$56.20)