400bbs pot. Hes bluffing right?

[Miffed22001]

No reads, no idea how opp got his stack but seems solid.
Fwiw, i think my hand is under-repped despite my turn bet. Id play a flush draw this way, probably also a set.

Bodog 400nl (dogwatch is broken sry)

UTG $400
Button $641
Villain (sb) $780
Hero (bb) $816

Dealt to hero :Ah: :Qs:
Preflop
UTG folds, button folds, Villain raises to $14, Hero calls.

Flop (Pot $28~)
:Kc: :Jc: :Td:

Villain bets $24, Hero raises to $65, Villain calls.

Turn (Pot $155~)

Villain checks, Hero bets $120, Villain calls.

River (Pot $395~)

Villain checks, Hero bets $250, Villain pushes, Hero?
(Hero has $350 behind)

[Halv]

I can't fold here.

But I'd try and build a bigger pot on both flop and turn, there's a lot of hands he's going to continue with in a blind war even though the stacks are deep. A raise to 90-100ish on the flop is more like it.

[Phantaroth]

This is tough. He slows down on the turn so its kind of hard to put him on two diamonds unless he has like ultra-mega-correct read and put you on AQ exactly.

Could he have tried to trap you while he is holding top set? O.o

[griffey24]

Yah, this is a gross spot.

The only hand I can really see here is AKdiamonds that would have played this way, and beat you. Maybe KJdiamonds, but I'm notsure if he's raising that from the SB.

I'd have to imagine a set check/raises the turn, afraid of the clubs.

I think he had AK of diamonds, but that being said, I can't fold here. I'd think I should fold, and I'd feel like I'm beat, but I'd have to pay to see myself get backdoor'd.

[Miffed22001]

does anybody think preflop is wrong?
The turn is the key point for me rather than the flop because of preflop. Also, i felt the turn bet needed to be more about forcing opp to overplay his hand OR defend against something he was drawing too. Yes/No?

[Halv]

- Preflop I can go either way. With these stacks I prefer to see the flop and go from there, I don't really fancy playing a big pot with what will most likely be a one pair hand.

- I don't really understand what your question wrt the turn is?

The only hand I can see beat us here is AdKd, I think KdJd makes a big raise on the turn. He's going to show up with a set, two pair or bluff often enough to make the call and I don't really think it's close. We need to be good 37% of the time here, no way in hell he's got the flush more often than that. How does the chance of him having AQ and splitting the pot affect a pot odds decision?

Awww fuk, he had AdQd?

[Miffed22001]

- Preflop I can go either way. With these stacks I prefer to see the flop and go from there, I don't really fancy playing a big pot with what will most likely be a one pair hand.

- I don't really understand what your question wrt the turn is?

The only hand I can see beat us here is AdKd, I think KdJd makes a big raise on the turn. He's going to show up with a set, two pair or bluff often enough to make the call and I don't really think it's close. We need to be good 37% of the time here, no way in hell he's got the flush more often than that. How does the chance of him having AQ and splitting the pot affect a pot odds decision?

Awww fuk, he had AdQd?

if im villain does it affect calling here?

[Halv]

I don't get away from JJ or better here (on the river) without a SUPER ROCK read. His river line just looks too much like "I think you have a set and I'm gonna push you off it because of the scary board and deep stacks" or "ZOMG I have [insert AA/2p/set here]in a raised pot, time to print me some moneys", depending on wether he's good or bad. If villain is good enough to be third leveling here then he takes my stack (and assuming he has no real read on us, that's just not going to be the case).

But again, build that pot on flop and turn, we want the cash in before a club or A,K,J,T,9 comes along and ruins my hand and/or action. This is a perfect spot to make a big flop raise and get it in on the turn.

Edit: if you had TT or even KJ here I think it would be a tough decision. With a straight after this action I can't believe anyone actually considers folding.

[IowaSkinsFan]

i guess he immediately put you on a straight or something because I have no idea what the hell he is playing like this.
What's your image?

[Miffed22001]

Neither player has really done anything special, nothing out of the ordinary. Villain doesnt know how hero got his stack, villain got his by making a thin call with QQ about 10 hands ago.

[johnny_fish]

This seems like a trivial reraise preflop. As played, I pay him off.

(Disclaimer: tourney donk)

[boost]

whats up with flop raise? Are you attempting to not get it in with the nuts? You can even bet moreon the turn.

Either way, this is a blind battle, 100bb deep and it normally is really hard to get away from tp, youre 200bb deep and have the nut straight on a runner runner flush board, you cant fold.

[Miffed22001]

whats up with flop raise? Are you attempting to not get it in with the nuts? You can even bet moreon the turn.

Either way, this is a blind battle, 100bb deep and it normally is really hard to get away from tp, youre 200bb deep and have the nut straight on a runner runner flush board, you cant fold.

what type of hand
1. c/r's all in on the river, and can be pretty sure its getting called considering the pot odds, that doesntlead all in?
2. that doesnt c/r OR c/r all in on the turn on this board considering the preflop action?

I think there are two maybe three hands villain should have considering this, as i dont think hes good/dumb enough to spew here where ive made it clear im not folding...

[Genitruc]

wow villain played AdJd very well here imo, otherwise it s a sicksicksick bluff.

gross spot, don't think I'm strong enough to fold.

edit : if you are villain and have AdXd you played this awesome.

[iceit]

I think that its pretty simple,
I get all the money I can in the pot. If I go broke, oh well it was a bad beat nothing you can do.
later

[bdawg56kg]

I think he will show up with diamonds here quite often (nothing else makes much sense). I think the correct play is to fold, but I'm not sure if I could make it in the heat of the moment.

what type of hand
1. c/r's all in on the river, and can be pretty sure its getting called considering the pot odds, that doesntlead all in?
2. that doesnt c/r OR c/r all in on the turn on this board considering the preflop action?

1. A flush obv. If he leads river for 250 are you raising w/o a flush?
2. A turn c/r ai would be an overbet (and most players will not make this play with a draw). This is why you should've made a bigger raise on the flop and bet close to pot on the turn.

[bdawg56kg]

His river line just looks too much like "I think you have a set and I'm gonna push you off it because of the scary board and deep stacks" or "ZOMG I have [insert AA/2p/set here]in a raised pot, time to print me some moneys", depending on wether he's good or bad.

You're kidding right? This thought process is waaayyyy off.

[Miffed22001]

wow villain played AdJd very well here imo, otherwise it s a sicksicksick bluff.

gross spot, don't think I'm strong enough to fold.

edit : if you are villain and have AdXd you played this awesome.

Close.

Edit: KJdiamonds ftw.

Youre right im villain, and i agree with all thats been said that the flop play by opp wasnt great, my only concern was that when i called the turn bet im considering i have 11 or 13 live outs (i cant put opp on kings but can JJ/TT and obviously AQ) and whether i was going to get called if i boated up (id already decided id play the river like this with a flush because i just couldnt see opp not value betting a monster on this river) My only concern was whether id get paid if the board paired and i suddenly got interested.
Whoever wrote about the sick read on AQ was right, but gotta addmit i dint really think about it until opp potted the turn and my spidey-sense went wtf this isnt right this deep.

My river play is sexy (it isnt supposed to be a bluff i just thought id always get called this way) just concerned my turn play was ~ev/-ev

Edit: 30% equity apparently with effective stacks.

[Genitruc]

lol comon Miffed, post a hand where you're hero!

VNH btw, imo you played it perfectly (I'm a fish but I call the flop all day long with these stacks). The river is particularly hot.

[IowaSkinsFan]

lol wow you played this hand perfectly.

[Miffed22001]

I guess i cold have posted it with the action stopping at me first to act on the river, but then what would everyone have said?
lol poooooosh!