AA on a double paired board: 100NL

[Galapogos]

Villian is a pretty basic TAG. Not very good and builds pots poorly when he has big hands. Haven't really seen him put to the test yet so I don't know if he over-values his hands. Got his stack from an early double up with a set against Nealejohn. I haven't been out of line yet. I've actually been on autopilot mostly, was paying more attention to High Stakes Poker on TV.

Texas Hold'em $1-$1 NL (Real Money), #1,868,969,749
Table Sooderstrom's HE, 13 Feb 2007 1:24 AM ET

Seat 2: chimchimdada ($82.90 in chips)
Seat 3: samma2 ($74.90 in chips)
Seat 6: nealejohn ($190.95 in chips)
Seat 7: kingofakind ($269.80 in chips)
Seat 9: Zramble ($29.20 in chips)
Seat 10: Galapogos [A,A] ($268.60 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
samma2 posts blind ($0.50), nealejohn posts blind ($1).

PRE-FLOP
kingofakind calls $1, Zramble folds, Galapogos bets $5, chimchimdada folds, samma2 folds, nealejohn calls $4, kingofakind calls $4.

FLOP [board cards 7,4,7]
nealejohn checks, kingofakind bets $15, Galapogos calls $15, nealejohn folds.

TURN [board cards 7,4,7,T]
kingofakind bets $15, Galapogos calls $15.

RIVER [board cards 7,4,7,T,4]
kingofakind bets $30, Galapogos calls $30.

Should I have put in a value raise here? What if the 4 didn't show up on the river? I've been running really bad today and I think that may have affected my decision, or is a raise bad?

[AHiltz]

Limp call UTG could be any pocket pair, but if so (and he hit a set quads) why the hell would he bet so weakly on the turn? I smell JJ/99 here. You calling the flop makes it look like you hold a smaller pp or AK. I pop the turn to about 50.

[larsmars]

Limp call UTG could be any pocket pair, but if so (and he hit a set quads) why the hell would he bet so weakly on the turn? I smell JJ/99 here. You calling the flop makes it look like you hold a smaller pp or AK. I pop the turn to about 50.

Doesn't raising the turn just fold out a lot of the hands you're beating?

[Galapogos]

Limp call UTG could be any pocket pair, but if so (and he hit a set quads) why the hell would he bet so weakly on the turn? I smell JJ/99 here. You calling the flop makes it look like you hold a smaller pp or AK. I pop the turn to about 50.

Doesn't raising the turn just fold out a lot of the hands you're beating?

That's my thoughts. I want to know if I should have raised this river. With 100bbs stacks I would have gotten it all-in on the river. But for some reason that 4 scared me. I'm wondering if I should have put in a there?

[AHiltz]

Limp call UTG could be any pocket pair, but if so (and he hit a set quads) why the hell would he bet so weakly on the turn? I smell JJ/99 here. You calling the flop makes it look like you hold a smaller pp or AK. I pop the turn to about 50.

Doesn't raising the turn just fold out a lot of the hands you're beating?

Maybe. But aren't we trying to build some sort of pot here?

[larsmars]

But aren't we trying to build some sort of pot here?

Not really. Trying to win the most when ahead and lose the least when behind. Given the reads i think we're basically folding out anything in villains range that we're beating by raising the turn, which leads to:
a) loss of a river bet when ahead
b) bigger pot when behind

River is interesting, because a (min?)raise will get looked up a lot. Given OP's read on villain and the deep stacks, i'd probably wuz out and just call. Anyway, i think a final pot of around 135bb seems much more sound than 500bb.

[IowaSkinsFan]

This is standard. You just can't fold versus those bets with KK-22 in this guys range.

[Galapogos]

This is standard. You just can't fold versus those bets with KK-22 in this guys range.

Folding never crossed my mind. I'm wondering if a river raise would be a good idea for those which larsmars has brought up.

[zenbitz]

I think hero's line is best. Weak turn bet = scared or monster - I don't see that a raise has much EV on turn. On river... he bets $30 into $70. Highly unlikely he has a 7 or 4 I think...although

builds pots poorly when he has big hands.

might be enough to convince me to just call rather than raise.

[griffey24]

This is standard. You just can't fold versus those bets with KK-22 in this guys range.

Folding never crossed my mind. I'm wondering if a river raise would be a good idea for those which larsmars has brought up.

What do we do here, if villain pushes over our value raise?

A lot of times I toss the idea of raising out the window, if a push/re-raise will make me feel sick. I definitely don't wanna get pushed off a showdown here.
I could be losing a lot of value with this logic though.

[gabe]

you played fine