QQ vs. solid tagg

[zook]

Villain is a tagg regular (15/10/3 over 1000+ hands) that I've played with a lot. I've seen him make moves, he's seen me make moves and he probably knows that I'm slightly laggy pre-flop and aggro post-flop. No recent history. Line check?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $1/$2 - 9 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $183.55
Hero: $233.50
MP1: $87.10
MP2: $74.60
MP3: $206.60
CO: $165.50
Button: $218.30
SB: $186.15
BB: $185

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with Q Q
UTG folds, Hero raises to $8, 6 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 5 4 3 ($17, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB raises to $45, Hero calls.

Turn: 9 ($107, 2 players)
BB bets $50, Hero folds.

[zenbitz]

so when you called the flop c/r, you were hoping for a turn check? An overcard?

I kinda want to call the 1/2 pot turn, but river sucks. I am just not sure I am beat yet (I would be pretty sure if he bets river too).

[zook]

Yeah, I was hoping for a turn check... that was an aggressive call on the flop I'm also not sure I'm beat after the 1/2 pot turn bet, but he's pot committing himself. If I call, he has less than 1/2 pot behind on the river ($82 into $207), so I really can't call turn and fold river...

[parky]

It seems to me that once you called the flop, you felt that you had him beat and did not respect that big raise. The turn bet was about the same amount. I think he had you on AK or AQ and your big pocket pair was still good. I would have called or raised.

[givememyleg]

I don't like a flop call / turn fold.

[Miffed22001]

i dont like calling the flop raise and folding the turn but the turn bet is so suspicious that he probably has QQ beat.

[zook]

leg and miffed: What line do you like? What does a flop c/r from a tagg say to you?

[griffey24]

blah... this is a tough spot.

I think the only lines to take here are to fold the flop (its a pretty big check raise) or push the turn. Either we think we're ahead on the flop (and call the c/r) and still ahead on the turn, or we're behind on the flop.

Folding the turn is too inbetween for me. "if he checks the turn, then I figure to be ahead'.. "if he bets the turn, then im probably beat", which may be true, but I'd imagine he would bet the turn a high percentage of the time after c/ring the flop (whether he has you or not).

Does villain 3-bet often? would he always 3-bet KK/AA PF? I feel like this is a set, or possible overpair even, if he likes to trap on occasion.

[zook]

I think the only lines to take here are to fold the flop (its a pretty big check raise) or push the turn.

Why do you like pushing the turn better than calling? I think if he has JJ,TT,88-66, he could fold to a push, but if we flat call, he probably puts the rest in on the river.

Does villain 3-bet often? would he always 3-bet KK/AA PF?

Yes, and almost always, but he's a thinking player, so he might flat call with AA here for deception once in awhile.

[Miffed22001]

leg and miffed: What line do you like? What does a flop c/r from a tagg say to you?

it says draw or hand that wants protecting. But a half decent played can c/r here with a set/straight knowing you like a 3bet shove line. But at that level, opp has got to know you like your cards.

fwiw, i might have checked behind here and raised a turn lead from a weaker hand, but only because my range on the turn could be AQ making a play or a straight.
Its definitly not a nice spot

[griffey24]

I think the only lines to take here are to fold the flop (its a pretty big check raise) or push the turn.

Why do you like pushing the turn better than calling? I think if he has JJ,TT,88-66, he could fold to a push, but if we flat call, he probably puts the rest in on the river.

I guess this depends on villain. I only said push, because if we called the turn bet we would have to call the river bet/push anyhow. A push would charge the draws at least.

But if you think villain is capable of c/ring flop, leading turn and then slowing down and checking the river, then calling is probably best. I just find it hard to see a reasonably aggro villain checking this river, once he's put so much of his stack in onthe previous streets.

[Fjaman]

im reading this as 66-JJ on the villain, the reraise on the flop indicates to me that he put you on 2 big cards and were trying to take it down there, your call should have slowed him down but didnt, so perhaps set, hit the nine another possibility is that he made a loose call with A2s and got lucky, i would say 50-50 to go on with the hand here

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

Here are some rough EV calculations, assuming villan has c/r'ed a smaller pair or is bluffing half the time(hands you beat), and has a set/ straight the other half(hand that have you beat). I think $100 is definitely on the low end of the raising spectrum, so i don't think we are raising too much to get our information about villan's hand.

You raise to $100. Villan folds.
Result: +53 Probability: ~50%

You raise to $100. Villan calls, and you fold to a turn bet.
Result: -$87 Probability: ~23%.

You raise to $100. Villan shoves, and you fold.
Result: -$87. Probability: ~25%

You raise to $100. Villan calls, and the turn comes a Q. Villan goes allin, you call and win the hand.
Result: $178. Probability: ~2%

($53 x .5) + (-$87 x .48) + ($178 x .02) = -EV
$26.5 + (-$43.75) + (~$3.6) = -$13.65


Raising looks ugly, but if you call the flop he almost certainly is going to bet the turn again. Now you don't know if he has you beat or not. You will have to invest nearly your whole stack in to get to showdown. This just seems to magnify the -EV of raising. We need to factor in the scenarios where he won't continue to bet with a smaller pair and will continue to bet to the river on a bluff, but they don't account for a majority of the scenarios so it certainly wouldn't tip the balance to +EV. Therefore, calling seems to be worse than raising.

Folding may be the best play after all, since you lose just $13.

Those are my thoughts. This is a really difficult spot.

[Da GOAT]

One point tho.

Isnt call the RR on flop and re evaluate turn a very weak line? i imagine this loses alot over time. for me to call the flop i gotta feel ahead and let him bluff/bet aganst me till i drop the hammer. did you feel this was your intended line but only for the 1/2 pot bet he made changed your mind.

otherwise i fold flop. i think miffed mentioned checking flop (maybe adding i bit of hindsight which doesnt help) on such a crap board (takes away the chance of been raised with crap coz board unlikely to of helped you). your check gains bluffs on turn from hands that fold to c/b's (as long as your checking doesnt raise eyebrows)

[gingerwizard]

Does he really fold 50% of the time?

[salsa4ever]

i think call-call-call and hope for JJ

[zook]

Isnt call the RR on flop and re evaluate turn a very weak line? i imagine this loses alot over time. for me to call the flop i gotta feel ahead and let him bluff/bet aganst me till i drop the hammer. did you feel this was your intended line but only for the 1/2 pot bet he made changed your mind.

Yes, it's a weak line. I thought there was a chance he c/r'ed the flop with a mid pp and he'd give himself away on the turn, with either a huge "go away!" bet, or by checking. The half-pot bet really confused me. It pot-committed him and this guy knows better than to pot-commit himself with a lukewarm hand. But maybe he wanted to save himself $80 if I pushed, or he was 3rd leveling me

[BankItDrew]

I consider this line as the ol' : EXPENSIVE TURN CARD.

On the flop, decide wether or not you want to see a showdown.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

Ginegerwizard is correect; i was probably generous when i estimated that villan would fold out 50% of his range. Since it was already i -EV decision anyways, it seems it would still be a fold. Does his lower folding range merit more strongly for calling, however?