Missed draw, raise river AI

[Halv]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($594)
UTG ($996.06)
MP ($1132.40)
CO ($141.96)
Hero ($703.40)
SB ($197.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T, A. SB posts a blind of $3.
3 folds, Hero raises to $18, 1 fold, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($39) 8, 9, Q (2 players)
BB bets $25, Hero raises to $112, BB calls $87.

Turn: ($263) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($263) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $138, Hero raises $703.40 (All-In)

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Villain is unknown. I checked behind turn because my flush draw is to the nuts, while the straight draw might be dead. My A might also be live so I want to see the river card for free. When he half-pots the river I think there's a decent chance that he's going for thin value with a single pair, I think a set/straight that missed the turn c/r will usually go for either a bigger river bet or a river c/r. There's also a chance that he has a missed draw himself, but probably not often enough to just call.

Thoughts on all streets appreciated. In general, are plays like this without reads spew?

[IowaSkinsFan]

If villan is good he knows this is a bluff. I just have no idea what the hell you check behind on the turn and push on the river.
Also, I'm not incredibly surprised if ths is a set or two pair, which I don't see folding.

I think the problem with ur reasoning here is ur trying to reason an unknown. This hand changes a lot if the player is passive, aggressive, donk, or good.

That being said, I don't see how you can't bet the turn. You just picked up a double gut and a FD, which is prob 30% equity. I bet like 200 or more on the turn.

[Alexos]

Yeah, it pretty much looks like a total bluff. If you check the turn, I'd rather c/f river. But I would def. bet 200 on this turn and call AI.

Also you can look at stats like cold calling %, if he does it alot I would fire another barrel 100% of the time, if he doesn't and he is tight, maybe getting a free card is fine, but if u miss just fold river.

[aislephive]

This is really really bad man. Like, are you ever checking behind TJ or a set or two pair on this board on the turn? The answer is or at least should be no, and those are the only hands you would shove the river with. So this looks really like the exact hand you have, and I would look you up with a ton of hands here.

[Genitruc]

This is very high risk. Saying it's "spewy" probably doesn't mean anything since... villain is unknown.


Assuming villain isn't terrible/donkish, your line looks bluffy and his line looks like a monster (ummm J10 FTW?) that missed a turn CR AI.

I'd rather make this play vs regulars that are capable of value/block betting thinly OOP.

[Halv]

Thanks guys, I figured this was bad. (Well I wasn't really sure but now I CY). I have a nasty habit of taking lines that looks like bluffs and are bluffs. From now on I'm going to be posting a lot more of these standard hands that I butcher. That's what we're here for, right?

[gabe]

yea this looks exactly like what it is