probe betting

[benny999]

lately i'm experimenting with probe bets. i like seeing the opps reaction to it, which helps me play more ideally FTOP-wise. and sometimes they make good pot-builders or low-risk bluffs.

here's an example. what do u think about probe betting, and about this hand?

SB is a pretty good multitabling regular, 18/15/aggro, who 3bets a lot. he probably sees me as similar but a bit laggier.


Ultimate Bet
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1./$2.
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $62.60
CO: $172.25
Hero: $285.10
SB: $208
BB: $112.40

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with T 7
2 folds, Hero raises to $7, SB raises to $23, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: Q 5 J ($48, 2 players)
SB bets $42, Hero calls.

Turn: 5 ($132, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $40, SB calls quickly.

River: 4 ($212, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero is all-in $180.1 (~$100 to call)


btw here's my thought process:
(summary - i think he'd fold less than top pair and chances are he doesn't have that based on the turn probe bet)

pre flop and flop: i called planning to float since he has such a wide 3bet + cbet range. i'm still learning this too but felt this was a good time with how much he was 3betting.

turn: the probe bet...with good hands and bluffs, i've tended to check the turn and bet the river. but this way, once he makes the quick call, i know almost for sure he has worse than top pair, since he tends to just put the rest in or fold with a hand he wants to play all in (or at least pause some to consider his options). i've been trying this bet with monsters lately too. sometimes it induces a bluff.

river: since now i know the chance he wants to play for stacks is small, and he prob puts me on a good hand from how i've played vs him previously (plus who bluffs for 1/2 pot, lol), and obv i have no showdown value, i bluff the rest.

[Genitruc]

I promised myself I wouldn't surf FTR for a few days but I couldn't help myself when I saw the title of this post since it's something that "standard" players do so infrequently.

I like the way you played this hand if villain respects you.

Also, doing this occasionally with monsters has... exciting implications.

Back "online" in a couple days. Keep the interesting ideas coming!

[Thee One]

I'm not sure I like it with this hand. You're dead here to almost everything in his range, and light betting the turn like that could result in him bluffing the river...a bluff that you can't call.

However, Combine your read on Villain, his massive c-bet and his turn check, it gives you a good idea where you stand on this hand. I think you just as easily pick up the pot on the turn with a bigger bet though, villain only called because of the great odds you lay him to draw to TP. It is a relatively small price to pay for information though, I'm just not sure this is the right spot for it. I like a hand with some showdown value here to catch his river bluff because that turn bet is just screaming I'm weak...push into me.

What do you do if the river is an Ace or King? What if he leads?

[IowaSkinsFan]

meh, i dont like it, he probably checked the turn for pot control.
I don't call the flop. Stack sizes just aren't enough here to bluff.

[Genitruc]

meh, i dont like it, he probably checked the turn for pot control.
I don't call the flop. Stack sizes just aren't enough here to bluff.

Bluffing in reriased pots w 100BB starting stacks can be done very successfully, especially vs hand-reading opponents for the exact reason you just menioned (it "can't" be a bluff).

[benny999]

I'm not sure I like it with this hand. You're dead here to almost everything in his range, and light betting the turn like that could result in him bluffing the river...a bluff that you can't call.

However, Combine your read on Villain, his massive c-bet and his turn check, it gives you a good idea where you stand on this hand. I think you just as easily pick up the pot on the turn with a bigger bet though, villain only called because of the great odds you lay him to draw to TP. It is a relatively small price to pay for information though, I'm just not sure this is the right spot for it. I like a hand with some showdown value here to catch his river bluff because that turn bet is just screaming I'm weak...push into me.

What do you do if the river is an Ace or King? What if he leads?

I was confident villain wouuld just check-push the turn if he wanted to bluff or had a hand, because of how aggressive he plays.
combine that with how quick he called the turn, and a river lead would surprise me a ton (he woulda paused a second after my turn bet to think of doing that..). so I'd just give up if he led the river. I'm not sure though if he checked an A/K river though.

I actually think this is a good spot for the probe bet, because it defines this villain's hand SO much based on how he reacts to it, and he wasn't really wild enough to c/r bluff much on the turn.
I did have a pretty solid, in-line (although aggressive) image. I'm pretty sure he thinks I can play a big and medium hand this way, and on the turn he thought, "nobody would take this line only to bluff for 1/2 pot on the river" like genitruc wrote, which is all that a hand like TT, AK, even AJ beats, but even still I don't think I'd have a bluff here often enough to call 1/2 pot. fwiw the result was an instafold.

[benny999]

I'm going to keep experimenting with these probe bets. If anyone has examples they used them or any more thoughts on what I posted, then just put them here.

this was a fun one I did the same bet but for a different reason:
Ultimate Bet
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1./$2.
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $136.35
UTG+1: $98.20
CO: $246.25
Hero: $292.80
SB: $56.10
BB: $523.55

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Q Q
2 folds, CO raises to $7, Hero raises to $24, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: Q J 3 ($51, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $38, CO calls.

Turn: 3 ($127, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $48, CO raises all-in $184.25, Hero calls.

River: 6 ($495.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $495.5)


Results:
Final pot: $495.5
CO shows Kh 8h
Hero shows Qs Qd

[sauce123]

NH- against aggro players a fake blocking bet to induce a double barrel can be veeerrry profitable and I do it a lot.