River qs 100NL vs predictable opp

[Da GOAT]

Ok this hand has been in the back of my mind for the past few days haunting me. Opp is very predictable both pre and postflop.

Opp is not slowplaying me here 99% of the time seriously. Opp range is a little wider than average but i dont expect to see real low SC. I really think he has a flush which is why i bet turn, question is i know his draw missed so should I shove river so i protect my hand against a luckboxed pair????

BTW if opp had real strong hand he minraises c/b's on flop and bets 1/4-1/3 pot on turn ALWAYS!!!!! Ive seen him do the line often on Everest.


EverestPoker Game #1298996274: Table Moroni-5 - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:02:46 - 2007/03/24
Seat 1: kikka ($78.36)
Seat 2: Ti_rem ($240.94)
Seat 3: laura86 ($19.50)
Seat 4: lovino30 ($42.00)
Seat 5: DaGOAT ($117.14)
Seat 6: xKiLLeRx ($108.25)
Seat 7: Kojiro60 ($187.74)
Seat 8: D.Elbazian ($59.60)
Seat 9: BasN ($141.46)
Seat 10: Ocean40 ($71.44)
kikka posts the small blind of $0.50
Ti_rem posts the big blind of $1.00
The button is in seat #10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DaGOAT[Ad Qh]
laura86 folds
lovino30 calls $1.00
DaGOAT raises to $5.00
xKiLLeRx folds
Kojiro60 folds
D.Elbazian folds
BasN calls $5.00
Ocean40 folds
kikka folds
Ti_rem calls $4.00
lovino30 calls $4.00
*** FLOP *** [3c 4c 9h]
Ti_rem bets $4.00
lovino30 folds
DaGOAT raises to $17.00
BasN folds
Ti_rem calls $13.00
*** TURN *** [3c 4c 9h] [6d]
Ti_rem checks
DaGOAT bets $35.00
Ti_rem calls $35.00
*** RIVER *** [3c 4c 9h 6d] [2d]
Ti_rem checks
DaGOAT ???????????????????????????

[Ash256]

This'll be interesting, I often get these hands against passive french fucktards at 50NL on iPoker, and I never know what the hell to do either.

[Erudito]

question is i know his draw missed so should I shove river so i protect my hand against a luckboxed pair????

You raised with Ace high on the flop and bet on the turn with Ace high. Do you think that your hand is good?
Even with a predictable opponent, if opponent is a calling station, I don't see opponent folding to a river bet.
Either this is spewing or you a great in reading your opponent hands.
Hope you won the hand. As played, I don't think you can win with Ace high on the showdown. You will need to bet in order to make opponent lay down his low pair. The question becomes how much to bet in the river?
I hate this type of situation, especially when opponent show resistance on the turn bet. I would prefer to fold on the flop when opponent bet out and seek another opportunity.

[zook]

I make closer to a pot sized raise on the flop, ~$25. Your turn play commits you to a river bluff. You know he's on a draw and you bet the turn with A high... you have to bluff shove the river or your turn bet was pointless. With a solid read that he likes to chase, doesn't think you're FoS and won't make thin calls with a small pair, that's the best line. But if there's any chace he's slowplaying a set/str8, or will look you up light, I prefer to check behind the turn.

[Da GOAT]

Erudito,

on turn i do think im still ahead.

I wouldnt go as far as to call him a calling station. i have no problem ordinarily c/b'ing into him after i PFR and he does fold often there.

You make the point that Ace high wont win a SD, thats exactly why im posting. What do I do on river? If I bet i gotta shove it

BTW Erudito folding on flop is very very weak. its very often a weak holding doing this trying to rob the pot so ill RR alot in that spot.

Zook,

All i can say is of course, if I bet turn i gotta shove river. I did think i left enough behind to shove river after the turn bet.

Wow zook, why $25 on flop. pot is roughly $15, opp bet $4,i bet $17. How bad is my betting? Again he doesnt have a monster, my play is very focused on my read.

Wow i just calc'd his call of my flop RR and he gets 2.77:1 to call. Ok leak fixed. $25 flop bet gives him 2:1 but i feel $25 may be too large!!! We do want him to call, wait I have Ace High maybe i dont

Ok zook, IF im 100% correct in that he has a flush draw then my correct play under poker theorm is to bet turn,right? BTW if he does hit a weak pair im relying on him folding it so its not a case where he will call a river shove with it.

[Erudito]

As played, you have to ask what range of hands could opponent have to call the turn bet? Opponent showed resistance on the flop raise and called your turn bet. He maybe on a flush draw and caught a pair on the turn. Therefore if you think that shoving all-in on the river will make your opponent lay down his hand, so be it. But I don't think you have enough chips to shove all-in to put enough pressure on your opponent to fold. The pot on the river is $124.50, and you only have $60.14. You will offering your opponent about 3 to 1 pot odds. So the question is Villain capable of folding when offered such pot odds? If you think that your opponent is capable of folding, then move all-in is the only way you can win this pot. I don't think Villain would put you on a 5 to represent a straight on the river. Would Villain put you on a pocket pair? The way you played on the flop and turn could easily represent a pocket pair. What was the result? You shoved all-in and villain folded?

[Da GOAT]

As played, you have to ask what range of hands could opponent have to call the turn bet? Opponent showed resistance on the flop raise and called your turn bet. He maybe on a flush draw and caught a pair on the turn. Therefore if you think that shoving all-in on the river will make your opponent lay down his hand, so be it. But I don't think you have enough chips to shove all-in to put enough pressure on your opponent to fold. The pot on the river is $124.50, and you only have $60.14. You will offering your opponent about 3 to 1 pot odds. So the question is Villain capable of folding when offered such pot odds? If you think that your opponent is capable of folding, then move all-in is the only way you can win this pot. I don't think Villain would put you on a 5 to represent a straight on the river. Would Villain put you on a pocket pair? The way you played on the flop and turn could easily represent a pocket pair. What was the result? You shoved all-in and villain folded?

you make a good point abt me only having $60 behind but i dont think he'll call a shove with TP even with them odds.

TPTK here would be A9 but i dont think many would call here. im not repping a 5 but i know he aint got one so im repping Overpair the whole hand thats protecting against the flush.

anyone else want a pop, or results???.....

[zook]

I think you left enough behind for a river shove bluff, not quite half pot, but close. I can't imagine this villain (as you described him) calling $60 with A9, unless you have a terrible image.

I raise more on the flop b/c I would with an overpair, the board's drawy and it's multi-way. Honestly, I often flat-call this flop, and don't even mind a fold. But if I'm going to pop it, I really pop it.

[Da GOAT]

Ok i CHECKED river

He held

But i really had this in the back of my mind that i may be giving up alot when draws miss and i dont bet on river. sometimes its a WA/WB type check IP but in these cases I dont even have SD value so i gotta protect it still.

[Miffed22001]

question is i know his draw missed so should I shove river so i protect my hand against a luckboxed pair????

You raised with Ace high on the flop and bet on the turn with Ace high. Do you think that your hand is good?
Even with a predictable opponent, if opponent is a calling station, I don't see opponent folding to a river bet.
Either this is spewing or you a great in reading your opponent hands.
Hope you won the hand. As played, I don't think you can win with Ace high on the showdown. You will need to bet in order to make opponent lay down his low pair. The question becomes how much to bet in the river?
I hate this type of situation, especially when opponent show resistance on the turn bet. I would prefer to fold on the flop when opponent bet out and seek another opportunity.

hes repping a big hand, opp shouldnt be stacking off here with one pair REGARDLESS of what we hold.

Hand is nice but you now need push and hope he isnt horrible enough to call. Then when he does make a note to go bust owith every overpair against this guy and rake in the $$$$$$