JJ facing oversized 4-bet

[Lukie]

eff stacks $6700, most of my money came from when nanonoko c/c'd 3 streets in a blind war when he had mid pair and I had K9 TPNK on a KTxxx. He was preflop raiser that hand. I've also been abusing position on him a bit, floating on him from time to time and I've 3-bet him once in position and once oop, he folded both.

Thoughts on this hand? I'm kind of at a loss for what I should do here. I ran my timer down... calling wasn't even option I was considering, shove or fold?

POKERSTARS GAME #9166574431: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($25/$50) - 2007/03/30 - 16:03:23 (ET)
Table 'Cordelia III' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 3: poopers ($3971 in chips)
Seat 4: Festivuss ($6288 in chips)
Seat 7: nanonoko ($6696 in chips)
Seat 8: Lukieplaya ($8364 in chips)
Seat 9: Semifaded ($3000 in chips)
Lukieplaya: posts small blind $25
Semifaded: posts big blind $50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Lukieplaya [Jc Jh]
poopers: folds
Festivuss: folds
nanonoko: raises $150 to $200
Lukieplaya: raises $600 to $800
Semifaded: folds
nanonoko: raises $2200 to $3000
Lukieplaya ????????

[Toadstool]

Generally in spots like this I just let the hand go, if he is getting frustrated with you, let him have this one - thats not a bad thing if he thinks he can push you around. Seems needlessly large for a 4 bet - would he just call your 3 bet with AA/KK? looks like AK more than anything - but against his range I think its best to fold.

[Lukie]

Generally in spots like this I just let the hand go, if he is getting frustrated with you, let him have this one - thats not a bad thing if he thinks he can push you around. Seems needlessly large for a 4 bet - would he just call your 3 bet with AA/KK? looks like AK more than anything - but against his range I think its best to fold.

hard to say honestly, the guy is a bit of a loose cannon which is why I'm in the game to begin with, but he's committed to calling a shove with pretty much anything at this point and we're 6700 deep so I think that he has something legit. However I weight that 'something' towards AK based on the size and thats just what it felt like.

still looking for some more feedback, particularly from anyone who's played with this guy before. Also keep in mind that he's playing bigger then he usually does (I ASSume), so he may be playing nittier then usual?

[gabe]

have u 3 bet alot

[UG]

I saw this hand and thought "fold." Then I thought about it, and thought you're obviously ahead of his range. If you want a coin flip, raise all-in.


(now that I've talked to you and found out that I'm right, I feel goooooood)

[ilikeaces86]

Is this Nanoko Captzeebo or just some random nanoko helps in giving advice to know which one he is.

[johnny_fish]

Ignoring metagame, you need 44% equity (5900/13400).

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.585% 35.01% 01.57% 125907060 5645496.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.415% 61.85% 01.57% 222385788 5645496.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.184% 49.22% 00.96% 318570540 6243024.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 49.816% 48.85% 00.96% 316194324 6243024.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.229% 41.86% 01.37% 176310408 5780460.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 56.771% 55.40% 01.37% 233355456 5780460.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }

Pick a range..

[Lukie]

Pick a range..

I sincerely appreciate the effort, but this thinking is severely flawed because pokerstove cannot weight ranges, which is extremely important in this spot.

Anyway, I thought for a while, shoved, and was happy about my decision. I was pretty sure I knew what he had.

ace on river did me in for my biggest pot ever, but I like how I kept my cool and made what I thought was a very tight, good decision.

[Lukie]

MORE IMPORTANT LESSON (i'll do these things from time to time because it's my forum!):

This isn't a bad beat post, I mean I only had the slightly better end of a flip and I understand that. But losing my biggest pot ever on the river sucked hard to say the least and I could immediately tell I wasn't in a good frame of mind, even though the average person probably wouldn't say I was tilting.

I kept my shit together and left the next orbit. Realizing when you are not capable of playing your best and reacting to that (usually by leaving) is very important as you move up and the games get tougher, the players become more aggressive and annoying to play against, and the money becomes more significant to you.

[pocketfours]

I sincerely appreciate the effort, but this thinking is severely flawed because pokerstove cannot weight ranges, which is extremely important in this spot.

Seems like we need to do some math.

Let's assume the following:

You think that he has either an overpair or overcards. You also think that if he has anything other than that, he will fold to a shove.

Then EV = P(call)*(P(op)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc)) + P(fold)*EV(fold)

Your read on him might be that 90% of the time he will have overcards (AK/AQ) and 10% of the time an overpair. You also think that sometimes he is on a complete bluff and will fold to a shove, perhaps 5% of the time.

90% of the time your chance of winning is approximately 54%
10% of the time your chance of winning is approximately 20%

P(fold) = 0.05
P(call) = 0.95
EV(op) = 0.2*(6696+800) - 0.8*(6696-800) = -3217.6
EV(oc) = 0.54*(6696+800) - 0.46*(6696-800) = 1335.68
EV(fold) = 3800

EV = 0.95*( //he calls...
0.10*(0.2*(6696+800) - 0.8*(6696-800)) + //...with overpair
0.9*(0.54*(6696+800) - 0.46*(6696-800))) + //...with overcards
0.05*3800 //he folds
= 1026 usd

Clearly EV+ with those reads at least.

But that doesn't answer your question (I don't know your read exactly). What we actually want to know is: what does the likelyhood P(oc) of him having overcards have to be for the call to be EV+?

We need to know when:
P(call)*(P(op)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc)) + P(fold)*EV(fold) > 0

First lets find out when:
P(call)*(P(op)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc)) + P(fold)*EV(fold) = 0

Since we assume that if he calls, then P(op) + P(oc) = 1, we get:

P(call)*(EV(op) - P(oc)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc)) + P(fold)*EV(fold) = 0

EV(op) - P(oc)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc) = - P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call)

-P(oc)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc) = -P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call) - EV(op)

P(oc)*EV(op) - P(oc)*EV(oc) = P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call) + EV(op)

P(oc)*(EV(op)-EV(oc)) = P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call) + EV(op)

Finally:

P(oc) = (P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call) + EV(op))/(EV(op)-EV(oc))

P(oc) = (190/0.95 - 3217.6) / (-3217.6-1335.68);

P(oc) = -3017.6 / -4553.28 = 0.663

So my answer to your initial question is: If you think the likelyhood of him having overcards is more than 66.3% and you think he will fold to a shove 5% of the time, then throw your chips in.

Class dismissed.

[johnny_fish]

Pick a range..

this thinking is severely flawed because pokerstove cannot weight ranges, which is extremely important in this spot.

sure, but the uncertainty lies in determining correct frequencies so you'll just have to get a feel for equity% and a way to do that is screwing around alot with pokerstove and plugging in various ranges.. At least, that's what I do a lot

Anyway, what it comes down to in this hand is;

- what was your 3bet frequency
- what does your opponent think your 3bet range is
- how do you think he will adjust (4bet range, call 3bet range etc)

This is all situational (and I think you're capable of making a good decision here).

fwiw, given your description, QQ seems a trivial push in this situation (and JJ if stacks were 100bb).

[gabe]

Pick a range..

I sincerely appreciate the effort, but this thinking is severely flawed because pokerstove cannot weight ranges, which is extremely important in this spot.

wrong iziot

[Irisheyes]

You guys are thinking about this all wrong. We shouldn't be trying to put him on a hand. We should realise that this bet looks like AK and then try to put him on a level.


Also Lukie Pokerstove can eight ranges. Use the suits selector thing in the bottom right corner.

[Lukie]

Pick a range..

I sincerely appreciate the effort, but this thinking is severely flawed because pokerstove cannot weight ranges, which is extremely important in this spot.

wrong iziot

ok so my post was 'technically' wrong but the point still stands, unless you disagree with that too??

[Lukie]

You guys are thinking about this all wrong. We shouldn't be trying to put him on a hand. We should realise that this bet looks like AK and then try to put him on a level.


Also Lukie Pokerstove can eight ranges. Use the suits selector thing in the bottom right corner.

explain what you mean about 'putting him on a level'?

if you mean don't say, oh he has AK, shove, but instead put him on a range that weights it in favor of AK (as far as in liklihood to be played a certain way), then I agree.

thanks for the heads up about pokerstove, I didn't even realize you could do that (without individually selecting each hand).

[Lukie]

Pick a range..

this thinking is severely flawed because pokerstove cannot weight ranges, which is extremely important in this spot.

sure, but the uncertainty lies in determining correct frequencies so you'll just have to get a feel for equity% and a way to do that is screwing around alot with pokerstove and plugging in various ranges.. At least, that's what I do a lot

I used to do that a lot but weighting the range is extremely important, and despite how I've worded it so far, I think the real thing to do is weight AGAINST QQ+, i mean who makes it 3k on a 4bet with those hands? (and i doubt he's thinking past the first level)

Anyway, what it comes down to in this hand is;

- what was your 3bet frequency
- what does your opponent think your 3bet range is
- how do you think he will adjust (4bet range, call 3bet range etc)

This is all situational (and I think you're capable of making a good decision here).

fwiw, given your description, QQ seems a trivial push in this situation (and JJ if stacks were 100bb).

i had 3-betted him a couple times, once very recently, he -may- have had the impression i was 3-betting him light. I think he'll 4-bet a little bit lighter but I'm not really sure. Agreed that it's really situational, and if it's really cloudy I'd probably favor the conservative side b/c i'm playing out of my br and I'd like to minimize variance (but if i have what i think is a clear +EV decision i'll take it, kinda like this spot when I shoved).

[Lukie]

I sincerely appreciate the effort, but this thinking is severely flawed because pokerstove cannot weight ranges, which is extremely important in this spot.

Seems like we need to do some math.

Let's assume the following:

You think that he has either an overpair or overcards. You also think that if he has anything other than that, he will fold to a shove.

Then EV = P(call)*(P(op)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc)) + P(fold)*EV(fold)

Your read on him might be that 90% of the time he will have overcards (AK/AQ) and 10% of the time an overpair. You also think that sometimes he is on a complete bluff and will fold to a shove, perhaps 5% of the time.

90% of the time your chance of winning is approximately 54%
10% of the time your chance of winning is approximately 20%

P(fold) = 0.05
P(call) = 0.95
EV(op) = 0.2*(6696+800) - 0.8*(6696-800) = -3217.6
EV(oc) = 0.54*(6696+800) - 0.46*(6696-800) = 1335.68
EV(fold) = 3800

EV = 0.95*( //he calls...
0.10*(0.2*(6696+800) - 0.8*(6696-800)) + //...with overpair
0.9*(0.54*(6696+800) - 0.46*(6696-800))) + //...with overcards
0.05*3800 //he folds
= 1026 usd

Clearly EV+ with those reads at least.

But that doesn't answer your question (I don't know your read exactly). What we actually want to know is: what does the likelyhood P(oc) of him having overcards have to be for the call to be EV+?

We need to know when:
P(call)*(P(op)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc)) + P(fold)*EV(fold) > 0

First lets find out when:
P(call)*(P(op)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc)) + P(fold)*EV(fold) = 0

Since we assume that if he calls, then P(op) + P(oc) = 1, we get:

P(call)*(EV(op) - P(oc)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc)) + P(fold)*EV(fold) = 0

EV(op) - P(oc)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc) = - P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call)

-P(oc)*EV(op) + P(oc)*EV(oc) = -P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call) - EV(op)

P(oc)*EV(op) - P(oc)*EV(oc) = P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call) + EV(op)

P(oc)*(EV(op)-EV(oc)) = P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call) + EV(op)

Finally:

P(oc) = (P(fold)*EV(fold)/P(call) + EV(op))/(EV(op)-EV(oc))

P(oc) = (190/0.95 - 3217.6) / (-3217.6-1335.68);

P(oc) = -3017.6 / -4553.28 = 0.663

So my answer to your initial question is: If you think the likelyhood of him having overcards is more than 66.3% and you think he will fold to a shove 5% of the time, then throw your chips in.

Class dismissed.

man, this is a really good reply, thanks for posting

honestly I wouldn't even be able to do an equity calc this long even if i had to so this helps (and i should be able to, esp if i want to play in these big games).

I think occasionally he will show up with a worse pair, so really correct wording in the OP probably should have been to slightly weight AGAINST QQ+ due to bet sizing instead of weighting TOWARD AK, even though that isn't necessarily wrong either.

I don't think he will fold a smaller pair to a shove, and he probably shouldn't. I would shove AK in my spot too more then likely. More importantly, it's fairly standard and I think that he thinks I would. I don't know that he shows up with a pure bluff here very much (eg Q7s), and I'm not sure how often he will fold to a shove here with what his range is, although my first impression was less then 5%, but that could be accurate. I don't think it will be significantly higher though, he put a really big bet in a big game that he's probably playing too high for as well.

[Lukie]

anyway great thread OP!

let's try to have a lot of these content-rich threads in HSNL

[Irisheyes]

explain what you mean about 'putting him on a level'?

I mean that to me and you the weird bet looks like AK, but if you think that the villian doesn't realise this (ie he is thinking "I'll bet big so he'll fold" then his range is strongly weighted towards AK and we shove. However if he is a level above this then he realises that we realise that a big bet looks like AK then we should probably fold because he is trying to trick us with AA/KK more often.

No probs about pokerstove. I only know because I saw aba do it in a CR video.

[pokadave]

theres a wide variety of hands that are either ahead or a coinflip, So its all up to you and your feel of the villian, but personally i wouldn't call, theres just too many hands out there that can beat JJ, like QQ KK AA, or coinflip situations, AQ AK KQ, but by the way the villian is betting, im assuming hes holding something along the lines of KK or AA, maybe AK.

btw lukie, did u call or fold the hand?